ANALYSIS: Nine key factors that may influence 2025 Anambra governorship poll

On Saturday, voters in Anambra State will elect the person who will govern the state for the next four years.

The incumbent governor, Charles Soludo, is seeking reelection under the platform of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

Mr Soludo was first elected on 6 November 2021 and sworn in on 17 March 2022. His first four-year term will end in March 2026.

The governor faces 15 other candidates from various political parties.

Analysts believe that four candidates are the major contenders in the poll: the incumbent governor, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Nicholas Ukachukwu, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP), George Moghalu, and the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), John Chuma-Nwosu.

However, the poll is believed to be a two-horse race between Mr Soludo and Mr Ukachukwu.

In this analysis, PREMIUM TIMES highlights the key factors that may influence the outcome of the poll in the South-eastern state.

Security Concerns 

Anambra is one of the two South-east states worst hit by insecurity. The other state is Imo. Like in other states in the region, gunmen agitating for an independent state of Biafra have been carrying out frequent attacks in Anambra – killing and abducting people, especially government officials and security operatives.

At least two state lawmakers have been abducted and killed in Anambra in the last three years. The LP candidate in the 2021 governorship election in the state, Obiora Agbasimalo, has not been found since he was abducted in Ihiala LGA of the state a few weeks before that year’s election.

Ahead of the 8 November governorship poll in Anambra, security concerns are palpable in some parts of the state. PREMIUM TIMES can confirm that many residents have deserted some communities within Ihiala and Ogbaru LGAs in the south-eastern state due to frequent attacks by armed persons. Some of these communities are Lilu, Mbosi, Isseke, Orsumoghu, and Azia, all in Ihiala LGA. In Ogwuaniocha, a community in Ogbaru LGA of the state, deadly and frequent attacks have been linked to internal communal crises.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the 2021 Anambra State Governorship Election inconclusive because the commission could not deploy election officials in Ihiala LGA at the time due to insecurity in the council area. A supplementary election conducted later in the area was characterised by heavy security deployment.

John Ojinnaka, an indigene of Uhualakwa community within Lilu town, told PREMIUM TIMES in late October that residents of his and neighbouring communities fled after non-state actors took control of the communities.

“As I speak with you now, four communities in Lilu, including my own community, have been completely deserted. If you go there and see anybody, they must be the hoodlums who usually camp in bushes and forests,” Mr Ojinnaka, who fled to Onitsha, said.

He listed other affected communities as Uhualakwa, Eziosu, Umuezeala, and Odilikpa.

PREMIUM TIMES asked him if he believes elections could still take place in those volatile communities.

“There cannot be any election in Lilu. No polling unit is safe in Lilu at all. The last senatorial election that was held did not take place in Lilu,” he responded.

Chris Offodile, a political analyst based in Anambra, believes that the insecurity in the state could affect voter turnout in volatile communities.

“Life has not returned in those (volatile) areas. People are still sceptical about their safety,” Mr Offodile said.

While security operatives may work hard to ensure residents feel safe during the election, voter turnout is likely to be affected. This may shape the outcome of the poll, given that votes, which could have helped some candidates win, would be lost.

Soludo’s support for Tinubu

Mr Soludo has not hidden his support for President Bola Tinubu, even before his election as Nigeria’s president. Before the 2023 presidential election, the Anambra governor had predicted that a former governor of Anambra and the LP candidate, Peter Obi, would not win the election. He said that Mr Obi’s participation in the poll was paving the way for Mr Tinubu to win.

Again, in May this year, Mr Soludo announced that his party, APGA, had adopted Mr Tinubu as its presidential candidate for the 2027 general election.

In August, the governor defended his support for Mr Tinubu despite their different party affiliations, claiming that he had been friends with the president for more than 22 years.

Mr Soludo claimed his support for Mr Tinubu also stems from the fact that their two political parties share the “progressivism ideology.”

The governor’s support for Mr Tinubu, analysts argue, may anger some voters in APGA-dominated Anambra, where the APC and the president do not enjoy wide acceptance and support.

One analyst, Emeka Umeagbalisi, argued that Mr Soludo’s romance with Mr Tinubu will not work for him in Saturday’s poll.

“If the election is free and fair, it will even diminish the chances of the governor to win the election,” said Mr Umeagbalisi, the founder and board chairperson of the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law.

He also argued that such a romance would have helped Mr Soludo if the election were held in a South-west state, where Mr Tinubu is believed to be popular.

“But the president cannot be popular everywhere, especially now that a lot of people are suffering in this country,” he stated.

Mr Soludo’s recent endorsement of Mr Tinubu for reelection in 2027 may cost him the votes of many Anambra supporters of Mr Obi. This may work against the governor in Saturday’s poll.

Zoning

Zoning is a central issue in the election. At least 10 of the governorship candidates, including the four major contenders, hail from the Anambra South District.

“Anambra has agreed, though informally, on rotation of power for equity’s sake. So anyone else who is running in this election who is from another senatorial district is wasting his time or is a businessman,” Mr Offodile told PREMIUM TIMES.

The major contenders will engage in a fierce contest for votes in Anambra South, given that the majority of the candidates hail from the district. The most popular candidate is expected to cruise to victory in the district on Saturday.

Soludo’s relationship with Obi

Mr Soludo has frequently criticised Mr Obi since the former Anambra governor announced his intention to contest the 2023 presidential election under the LP.

From predicting Mr Obi’s election loss to claiming that the value of the investments made by Mr Obi while he was the governor of the state was “worth next to nothing” in Anambra, Mr Soludo has continued his attacks on the former governor.

The governor recently criticised Mr Obi over his recent pledge to serve for one term if elected president in 2027.

Mr Obi enjoys massive support in the South-east, especially in Anambra State, where he served two terms as governor from 2006 to 2014. Mr Obi secured 95 per cent of the votes in Anambra during the 2023 presidential election.

But analysts are divided about the possibility of Mr Soludo’s seeming hostility against Mr Obi standing as a hurdle against the governor’s reelection bid.

PREMIUM TIMES recalls that many Igbo-speaking people from the South-east, including those from Anambra, had attacked Mr Soludo at the time the governor criticised Mr Obi, indicating that many Igbos are sympathetic to the LP candidate. Another evidence of the sympathy for Mr Obi was how many Igbos and non-Igbos, including Catholics, tackled a popular Catholic priest, Ejike Mbaka, after he predicted that the LP candidate would not win the 2023 presidential election.

Mr Mbaka, in the heat of the criticisms, apologised for his remarks. Will Mr Soludo’s diatribe against Mr Obi come back to hurt his reelection bid?

Soludo’s anti-Biafra stance

Upon being sworn in as governor of Anambra in March 2022, Mr Soludo received praise from many Igbos for his visit to Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), at a State Security Service facility in Abuja.

The governor then called for Mr Kanu’s release to achieve peace in the South-east. Months later, Mr Soludo claimed that criminals from the South-east, not IPOB members, were behind insecurity in the region. He would later claim that Mr Kanu’s release had nothing to do with insecurity in the South-east.  Expectedly, people and groups from the South-east, including IPOB, attacked the governor for the remarks, which many believe would not help the campaign for the IPOB leader’s release.

Recently, Mr Soludo shocked many when he openly dissociated himself from the Biafra agitation and IPOB. Some analysts believe Mr Soludo’s stance against Biafra agitation may affect his reelection bid.

However, another political analyst, Nonso Oguno, argued that although Igbos are usually emotional about IPOB and Biafra agitation, they are unlikely to factor that into their voting considerations on Saturday.

Mr Oguno told PREMIUM TIMES that Mr Soludo’s anti-Biafra and anti-IPOB posture might not affect him in the poll because IPOB had not been campaigning against him.

Many people from the South-east, including some politicians from the region, support the Biafra agitation, although surreptitiously. Similarly, despite his ongoing terrorism trial at the Federal High Court in Abuja, Mr Kanu enjoys the admiration and support of many South-easterners who believe that the IPOB leader is being unjustly detained and tried.

IPOB is agitating for the secession of South-east and some parts of South-south from Nigeria.

Anglican/Catholic rivalry 

Anambra is a predominantly Christian state, with a significant presence of Catholics and Anglicans. For years, a rivalry has existed between the two denominations in the state, frequently influencing the outcome of elections.

In fact, Anglican faithful often complained that Catholics had produced most of the governors in the state. Like Mr Soludo,  former governors Chris Ngige, Willie Obiano and Mr Obi are all Catholics.

Leaders of the two denominations always either explicitly endorsed candidates from their own denominations or encouraged congregants to support such candidates in various elections.

In response, many political parties often consider religious affiliation when selecting their candidates for elections. Most times, a Catholic who receives a party governorship ticket ends up choosing an Anglican as their running mate, apparently to appeal to the two major religious blocs in the state.

Like several others, Chijioke Mbadinuju, who served as governor of the state from 1999 to 2003, argued that he was not re-elected in 2003 because of the religious rivalry in the state.

“There are plenty of religious sentiments in Anambra politics,” Mr Mbadinuju, who died in April 2023, said in an interview with Vanguard newspaper published on 11 July 2011.

“In the whole of Nigeria, it is ethnic sentiments and religious too, but in Anambra State, it is between Roman Catholics, Anglicans and Pentecostals. It was much of that reason I was not allowed to contest for a second term. The Catholics believed it was their time and Peter Obi was chosen…,” he said.

Checks by PREMIUM TIMES showed that most of the candidates and deputy governorship candidates, especially those of the major contenders in the 8 November poll, are from the religious persuasions.

For instance, Mr Soludo is a Catholic, while his deputy, Onyeka Ibezim, is an Anglican. Their arch-rival and APC candidate, Mr Ukachukwu, is an Anglican, although some people often argue that he is a Pentecostal because he founded the Prince C. N Ukachukwu Outreach Ministries International. His running mate, Mrs Ekwunife, is a Catholic.

“The politics of denomination has been played in Anambra for decades now.  And it has had a significant impact on the election’s outcome. So, Anambra people seem to believe so much that a particular denomination, like the Catholic Church, will determine who emerges as governor in the state,” Mr Offodile said.

Soludo’s relationship with Obi of Onitsha

There has been a face-off between the Obi of Onitsha, Alfred Achebe, and Mr Soludo, after the governor, in early January 2024, suspended the traditional ruler of Neni, Damian Ezeani, for conferring a chieftaincy title on Ifeanyi Ubah, then a senator representing Anambra South District.

Mr Achebe, the then-chairperson of the Anambra Traditional Rulers’ Council, criticised the governor’s decision, accusing him of “maltreating” and improperly suspending some traditional rulers, and also “dehumanising” the traditional institution in the state.

Although Mr Soludo reinstated the suspended traditional ruler days after the criticism, the governor subsequently dissolved the Achebe-led Anambra Traditional Rulers Council.

The governor, during a meeting with traditional rulers in the state, claimed the composition of the council violated the law establishing it, thereby necessitating the dissolution, which observers believe was orchestrated to remove Mr Achebe.

By January 2025, Mr Soludo appointed the traditional ruler of Obosi, Chidubem Iweka, as the new chairperson of the council. Since then, the rift between Messrs Soludo and Achebe has worsened. Unlike before, Mr Soludo shunned the 2024 and 2025 Ofala Festivals hosted by Mr Achebe, while the governor’s main challenger and APC candidate, Mr Ukachukwu, visited apparently to establish ties with the revered monarch ahead of the poll.

Recently, Mr Achebe announced that the traditional institution in Onitsha, under his leadership, would not endorse any candidate for the November poll.

Mr Achebe wields both political and traditional influence in Onitsha, the commercial hub of the state. His rift with Mr Soludo may stand as a big hurdle to the governor’s hope of winning votes in Onitsha, which has two LGAs – Onitsha North and South.

But Mr Umeagbalisi argued that the monarch cannot influence the outcome of the poll.

“Onitsha is a metropolitan city. In other words, the majority of people living there are visitors, not indigenes and not culturally loyal to the Obi of Onitsha in terms of influencing their electoral decisions,” he said.

Soludo’s Policies 

The people of Anambra have mixed perceptions of Mr Soludo’s performance. While some view the governor as an achiever, others perceive him as a technocrat with big ideas for the state, but who lags in the execution of these ideas.

Many believe that Mr Soludo can deliver based on his credentials, but his performances have been below expectations, considering the ambitious manifesto he presented before the 2021 polls. Others say the governor has done well, but has focused more on appealing to the elites than the ordinary people.

For Mr Oguno, the dominant perception of Mr Soludo is “Olu Atu egwu,” an Igbo phrase for a man who is never scared of embarking on any project. The analyst said Mr Soludo is seen as a governor who works for the people.

Similarly, the public perception of Mr Soludo’s policies is diverse. Some perceive him as a governor who has “over-taxed” the people. But Mr Soludo has repeatedly defended the taxes in Anambra, maintaining that he had abolished the collection of taxes from traders with wares worth less than N100,000, as well as from barrow pushers, hawkers, vulcanisers and other low-income earners.

“His (Soludo) tax policies are not right,” Mr Oguno argued.

Many, however, laud Mr Soludo for his security policies and for enacting laws against evil native doctors and spiritualists backing terrorists. But critics argue that the governor launched the Agunechemba Security Outfit to clamp down on the opposition, not only criminals, and that the security outfit has been accused of human rights violations, brutality, extortion, and extrajudicial killings.

Soludo’s 2021 campaign promises 

Mr Soludo came to power after making ambitious campaign promises that resonated with the people of Anambra. In his 72-page manifesto, he promised to transform Anambra from a predominantly informal commercial state to a formal, productive, and competitive economy. The governor also made promises regarding security, rapid industrialisation, agriculture, commerce, entertainment, and the more active participation of women at all levels (at least 30 per cent), as well as the strengthening of MSME funding and ending flooding and erosion in the state.

But has Mr Soludo fulfilled his promises more than three years after? Economically, Anambra has fared well under the governor.  In 2022, when Mr Soludo took over as governor, Anambra ranked 6th nationally for fiscal performance and 7th for ease of doing business, with a Gross Domestic Product of N5.14 trillion, according to data released by BudgiT. The state’s domestic debt at the time stood at N55.72 billion, while foreign debt was $110.27 million.

According to the latest data released by BudgiT in 2025, Anambra ranked first on the fiscal performance index.

“This ascent to number 1 reflects the state’s consistent improvements in fiscal performance over recent years, driven by strategic initiatives aimed at boosting local revenue,” BudgIT says.

Under Mr Soludo, the state also reduced its debt burden from N55.72 billion in 2022 to N28.68 billion for domestic debt and from $110.27 million in 2022 to $103.69 million for foreign debt as of 2024.

Like in the economy, the governor also made great efforts to tackle insecurity by inaugurating the Agunechemba Security Outfit and launching Operation Udo-Ka-chi. But critics argue that the gains are below expectations, with the outfit being accused of brutality and extrajudicial killings.

Governor Soludo’s initiatives and promises on agriculture and industrialisation have fallen below expectations. Despite his recent distribution of free organic fertiliser to 20,000 smallholder farmers, the empowerment of approximately 13,000 farmers, and an irrigation project in Ayamelum LGA serving 10,000 hectares of rice fields, these initiatives have not driven the promised agricultural and industrial revolution in Anambra, which has a population of over 5.5 million.

An analysis of Mr Soludo’s appointments revealed that he failed to fulfil his promise of achieving at least 30 per cent women’s representation in governance in Anambra. For instance, in his 20-member cabinet, only five women are members, representing 25 per cent of the total number.

On MSME, the governor fared well with his ‘One Youth Two Skills Initiative’, which has resulted in the empowerment of thousands of youths in Anambra.

His promises to end flooding and erosion have yet to be fulfilled. Despite his initiatives, flooding and erosion continue to pose a threat to lives and livelihoods across communities in the state.

The fulfilled campaign promises may stimulate support for Mr Soludos’s reelection bid on Saturday, but his failures may prompt some voters to support his challengers.