ANALYSIS: 2027: Will APC sacrifice Fubara to please Wike?

The political feud between Rivers State Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, now FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, did not stem from ideological or governance disagreements. It arose from a broken succession pact.

Mr Wike engineered Mr Fubara’s emergence, apparently to have a successor he can control, but power, once transferred, proved unwilling to remain remotely controlled.

What followed was not a routine post-election disagreement but a systemic rupture. Disputes over appointments, control of political structures, and access to state resources escalated rapidly. Governance stalled. Institutions buckled. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Rivers fractured into rival camps, and the state became a theatre of confrontations.

Eventually, Mr Fubara defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), presenting the move as political survival rather than ambition.

Defection, however, did not bring closure. Instead, it widened the battlefield. What was once an internal PDP power struggle was transplanted into the APC, transforming a state-level feud into a national party dilemma. By crossing over, Mr Fubara did not escape the shadow of his predecessor; he carried the conflict with him, forcing the ruling party to confront a crisis it did not originate but must now manage.

APC’s embrace — and its contradictions

In the early days after Mr Fubara’s defection, signals from the APC’s national leadership were unmistakably warm. The party’s national secretary led a delegation to Port Harcourt and publicly endorsed the governor for a second term. Days later, the APC national chairperson went further, declaring Mr Fubara the leader of the party in Rivers State.

It was an assertion of formal authority over informal power, intended to settle hierarchy and draw a line under internal contestation.

Mr Wike rejected it outright, asking the APC secretary to stay away from Rivers State.

His rejection reaffirmed an enduring truth of Nigerian politics: party titles and endorsements do not automatically translate into political control. As Abubakar Kari, a professor at the University of Abuja, observed, the events of recent days suggest that abandoning Mr Fubara is “unlikely.”

“It appears like some powerful forces within the APC are solidly behind Mr Fubara, and they have an axe to grind with Wike. They are not very comfortable with the minister,” Mr Kari, a professor of political sociology, said.

Those forces, he argued, include influential governors within the APC who see Mr Wike’s approach as destabilising.

He pointed to tensions between Mr Wike and the chairperson of the Progressive Governors Forum, Hope Uzodimma of Imo State, as evidence that Rivers politics now intersects with wider intra-party rivalries.

When personal feud becomes statecraft

Beyond partisan calculations, analysts say Mr Wike’s rhetoric has begun to carry reputational costs. Mr Kari was blunt: “It is also becoming very clear that Wike has become an embarrassment. Because he’s elevating personal feud to statecraft.”

That posture, he added, is rooted in a long-standing sense of political invulnerability. “He has this feeling; I don’t know where he got the idea from that he’s untouchable… that he’s too close to the president that he can do anything and get away with it.”

According to Mr Kari, that perception is now being challenged from within the APC itself. “There are elements within the APC that are trying to checkmate him.”

Rivers, he said, may be the arena where those limits are finally tested.

Rivals united in Abuja

In a striking paradox, Mr Wike remains a PDP member while Mr Fubara is now an APC governor—yet both share a fundamental federal objective: supporting the re-election of President Bola Tinubu.

This convergence of interests complicates the APC’s calculations. How does the party assert authority over its own governor without antagonising a powerful political actor outside its ranks who still delivers votes and mobilisation critical to its national ambitions?

PREMIUM TIMES earlier reported an APC chieftain as saying the party’s national leadership had reached a consensus to grant automatic return tickets to governors who join from another party. Mr Fubara was explicitly within that category. If Rivers becomes the exception, analysts ask, what remains of the rule?

For Mr Kari, the calculation is straightforward. “Perhaps the major reason APC will not likely sacrifice Mr Fubara is that he has the capacity to do exactly what Wike can do for (President) Tinubu: to mobilise support for him. It does not pay the APC or Mr Tinubu to sacrifice Governor Fubara because of Wike. Politics is a practical thing.”

Politics as loyalty, money and threat

Mr Wike has never framed his opposition to Mr Fubara in policy terms. His politics is anchored on loyalty and leverage, not governance metrics. He has openly warned that Mr Fubara’s re-election would “kill him politically,” reducing governance to a contest of personal survival.

To enforce that threat, Mr Wike is touring all 23 local government areas of Rivers State, rallying supporters against Mr Fubara.

Yet analysts insist that Nigerian political dominance is rarely sustained by rhetoric alone; it is underwritten by money and access to state resources. Mr Kari underscored the shift: “Don’t forget Mr Fubara is capable of dispensing the kind of patronage that Mr Wike does because he’s the governor. He controls enormous resources and influence.”

Over time, he argued, this could erode Mr Wike’s base. “I envisage a situation where Governor Fubara will gradually weaken Wike’s grip on the politics of Rivers State by dispensing patronage and compromising influential members of Wike’s group.”

The APC’s costly dilemma

The arithmetic confronting the APC is blunt.

If Mr Fubara secures the party’s governorship ticket, he enters the race as an incumbent with access to state machinery and resources. The campaign largely funds itself, and the party benefits from unity—however uneasy.

If he is denied the ticket, the APC must bankroll Rivers from Abuja, fighting a sitting governor who remains the recognised leader of the party in the state. Such a move risks alienating Mr Fubara’s supporters, dampening enthusiasm for President Tinubu, and opening space for protest votes or quiet sabotage.

Public affairs analyst Adoyi Omale dismissed the notion that the APC would sacrifice one of its own governors to please a non-member.

“Governor Fubara is now a member of APC, but Mr Wike is not, so the issue of APC sacrificing the governor to please the minister does not arise.”

He was categorical about party structure: “The APC national chairperson and other organs of the party have made it clear that the governor is the leader of the party at the state level. There’s no ambiguity.”

So, where does authority ultimately lie? “They are unitary in form… it is what the national wants that is going to happen because it is the national that will send people to conduct congresses in the state; it is the national that will authenticate the list of delegates,” Mr Omale said.

He added that any leverage Mr Wike retains lies outside the APC processes.

“If Wike wants to stop Fubara, he can do so at the general election… but not to say that a particular political party should not give a ticket to Mr Fubara, especially a party that Mr Wike is not a member of.”

Party rules versus personality

That argument is reinforced by Ita Enang, an APC chieftain, former senator, presidential aide, and current nominee for an ambassadorial position. Mr Enang laid out what he described as the party’s settled understanding.

“The governor of a state, by an APC unwritten statement, is the leader of the party in the state.”

He said the APC national leadership had gone further in its internal commitments.

“The APC national leadership has an understanding that governors of other political parties who defected to the party will be given the right of first refusal on a second-term ticket and the right to control the party structure at the state level.”

On Mr Wike’s role, Mr Enang was emphatic. “Wike is a factional leader of the PDP at the national level, and there is no way Wike can determine who gets a ticket under the APC platform in Rivers.”

He added: “The chairperson of the APC at the state level is under the governor, and the congress committee that would be sent to Rivers State for delegate election will report to Governor Fubara.”

Drawing a direct parallel with the past, the former senator said: “Just as Wike was the leader of PDP when he was the governor. Mr Wike is not a member of the APC and cannot decide who flies the APC governorship flag in Rivers.”

Mr Enang was blunt about boundaries: “Let him choose the PDP governorship flagbearer, not that of the APC. Even if he joins the APC today, he will be working under the governor.”

He urged the APC national leadership to organise a formal reception for Mr Fubara in Port Harcourt, saying such an event would help the party “ascertain the actual members of APC in the oil-rich state.”

Beyond Rivers: the Tinubu variable

For development consultant and columnist Jide Ojo, the decisive variable is President Tinubu himself. Mr Ojo argues that the power Mr Wike currently wields flows directly from the presidency.

“All the powers and influence Mr Wike enjoys today come from the presidency.”

He recalled the president’s blunt message to APC governors: “He (Tinubu) has the yam; he has the knife.”

From this vantage point, the crisis is less about sacrifice than negotiation. Mr Ojo believes President Tinubu can broker a settlement, much as he did during the Lagos House of Assembly speakership crisis.

“There’s nothing that cannot be negotiated in politics,” he argued, outlining an alternative: “If the president removes Wike today, his influence will be reduced by over 50 per cent,” noting that much of Mr Wike’s clout rests on appointments, access, and perceived closeness to power.

Mr Ojo acknowledged, however, the depth of Mr Wike’s anxieties. “Wike expressed fears that if Fubara wins a second term, he (Wike) will be buried alive politically, and that is a genuine fear. Every politician wants to remain relevant.”

The FCT minister has just demonstrated that he may still hold all the aces in Rivers politics; the Rivers House of Assembly began impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara on Thursday, 8 January.

Beyond Rivers

The choice before the APC is not merely strategic; it is fundamental. Back Mr Fubara, and the party signals that defection offers protection and that internal rules still matter. Sideline him to please Mr Wike, and it risks confirming that power lies not in membership or office, but in proximity to the presidency.

READ ALSO: ADC inaugurates Constitution Review Committee ‘to deepen internal democracy’

Ultimately, the question confronting the APC is larger than Rivers State. It tests whether party rules will prevail over personal power, whether incumbency still confers protection, and whether Nigeria’s ruling party is governed by institutions—or by strongmen.

In Rivers, the battle is no longer just about 2027. It is about who truly owns power—and at what price.