Political succession debates often begin long before an electoral cycle formally arrives, particularly in states where the sitting administration has significantly shaped governance expectations and public perception of leadership.
In such environments, political actors, analysts, and stakeholders gradually begin to reflect on the direction of future leadership and the qualities required to sustain the progress achieved by the incumbent administration. These conversations rarely represent formal political contests; rather, they form part of the broader democratic process through which societies assess potential leadership options.
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In Borno State, leadership transitions have historically been influenced by a mixture of party structures, elite consensus, and the influence of prominent political figures within the state’s political establishment. Since the return of democratic rule in 1999, the emergence of major political candidates has often reflected negotiations among key stakeholders and strategic alignments within the ruling party. Influential leaders such as Kashim Shettima, Nigeria’s Vice President, have played important roles in shaping political trajectories and leadership outcomes within the state.
Another defining feature of political competition in Borno is the balance between technocratic governance and traditional political mobilisation. While some aspirants build their reputations through professional competence and administrative experience, others derive their influence from strong grassroots political networks and long-standing engagement within party structures. The interaction between these two traditions often shapes how leadership choices are debated within the state’s political environment.
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Given that the tenure of Governor Babagana Umara Zulum is gradually coming to an end, conversations about who will succeed him as the next governor of Borno State have begun to dominate political discussions across the state. Governor Zulum has set a governance standard that many believe will be difficult to match. His leadership style is defined by discipline, courage, and an uncommon commitment to public service. Whoever emerges as his successor must therefore possess the energy, competence, and political strength required to sustain the momentum that the state has experienced under his administration.
Among the names frequently mentioned in this regard are Senator Mohammed Tahir Monguno, Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan, Hon Ali Bukar Dalori, Lawan Abba Wakilbe, Dr Usman Mohammed Shettima, and Bukar Adam Bababe. Each of them carries certain strengths that keep their names alive in the succession debate, but each also faces challenges that could shape their chances.
Senator Mohammed Tahir Monguno remains one of the most experienced lawmakers not only in Borno but across Northern Nigeria. His political career spans more than three decades in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. He is widely respected as a legal luminary with a deep understanding of governance and legislative procedure.
Mr Monguno’s loyalty to his political principals and party leadership has never been in doubt. Over the years he has consistently demonstrated readiness to support party positions and defend the interests of those he works with. His personal relationship with Governor Zulum is also widely acknowledged. These qualities could have placed him in a very comfortable position in the race for succession.
However, his greatest challenge appears to be his age. Leadership in a state like Borno requires enormous physical strength and tireless mobility because governance often involves constant travel, crisis management, and direct supervision of projects. Many stakeholders believe the next governor must possess the kind of energy that allows one to work tirelessly from morning to evening. In this regard, Mr Monguno’s age may significantly reduce his chances despite his wealth of experience and good relationship with the incumbent governor.
Another prominent figure often mentioned in the succession conversation is Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan. Like Mr Monguno, he is also a legal practitioner and an experienced legislator. Unlike the older senator, however, Mr Kaka Shehu represents a younger generation of politicians with visible energy and ambition. His supporters believe he possesses the drive required to lead the state after Mr Zulum.
Yet his political image remains complicated. He is often allegedly associated with members of the Civilian Joint Task Force, a group that some critics describe as being linked to political muscle. Because of this association, questions have been raised about his political style and personal disposition.
Another issue frequently mentioned is the perception that his loyalty is more closely aligned with Vice President Shettima than with Governor Zulum. Within the governor’s political circle, this perception creates hesitation. There is also concern that individuals known for recalcitrant behavior could gain undue influence if he eventually becomes governor. In a state that prides itself on decency and social responsibility, such fears may significantly reduce his chances of emerging as the preferred successor.
Hon Ali Bukar Dalori is another name that often surfaces in political discussions. Mr Dalori is widely regarded as a grassroots politician who has spent many years building networks across communities. He has held several positions at the local, state, and national levels and has delivered in various capacities. His strength lies in his closeness to grassroots political structures and his ability to mobilize support at the state and national levels.
However, when discussions shift to the intellectual and administrative demands of running a modern state government, doubts begin to emerge. Governance at the level established by Governor Zulum requires strong policy understanding, administrative exposure, and strategic planning ability. Many observers believe Mr Dalori still needs considerable development in this area. For that reason, his chances of succeeding Governor Zulum appear quite slim despite his grassroots credentials.
Lawan Abba Wakilbe, the Commissioner of Education, Science, Technology, and Innovation, also features prominently among the names mentioned in succession debates. As a serving commissioner who has followed Governor Zulum on several daring trips across local government areas, Mr Wakilbe, an engineer has demonstrated courage and commitment in public service.
His leadership style in many ways reflects that of his principal. He has shown readiness to confront difficult situations and supervise projects directly in remote parts of the state. These actions have led some observers to believe he could represent continuity in governance after Zulum.
Yet his political image among colleagues and stakeholders remains mixed. Some of his colleagues perceive him as excessively assertive or even arrogant. Within the governor’s political camp there are also concerns about his personality and approach to leadership.
Another major challenge is his reported strained relationship with the camp of Vice President Shettima. In a political environment where alliances often determine outcomes, this tension could become a serious setback for his ambition. Additionally, many stakeholders argue that he remains relatively unpopular within the broader political structure of the state.
Dr Usman Mohammed Shettima is another figure whose name has gained increasing attention in the succession conversation. He is currently serving as Senior Special Assistant on Administration and Office Coordination to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the Office of the Vice President. Sources revealed that he possesses an impressive professional background in banking and finance, having worked in the Central Bank of Nigeria for many years. He previously worked with Governor Zulum during the latter’s tenure at Ramat Polytechnic as a lecturer, a relationship that reportedly earned him the governor’s confidence and respect.
Within Governor Zulum’s circle he is often described as loyal, disciplined, and trustworthy. Many observers believe the governor appears comfortable around him, a factor that has fueled speculation that he could eventually receive the governor’s backing.
His family relationship with Vice President Shettima also places him in a strategic position because he enjoys acceptance within that camp as well. These factors have led some analysts to believe that the indicators for succession may be tilting in his direction.
Nevertheless, Mr Shettima faces one notable challenge. He is widely regarded as a technocrat rather than a seasoned politician, coupled with his youthfulness. This could become his only major obstacle.
Bukar Adam Bababe, the Executive Secretary of the Borno Geographical Information Service, is also mentioned among potential successors. Mr Bababe, an engineer is widely acknowledged as a disciplined administrator whose commitment to excellence is evident in the assignments he undertakes. Under his leadership, BOGIS has pursued reforms aimed at modernizing land administration in the state.
However, Mr Bababe’s political standing appears relatively weak. Many members of the political class consider him unpopular within the broader political environment of Borno. Reports of strained relationships with some colleagues in the administration have also affected his reputation.
Furthermore, his lack of strong alignment with the camp of Vice President Shettima reduces the level of political support he might require in a competitive succession contest. Critics also argue that his uncompromising administrative style has created friction with the public, with complaints about harsh or insensitive behavior affecting his public image.
In the final analysis, the question of who will eventually succeed Governor Zulum remains open. Each of the individuals being discussed possesses qualities that justify their inclusion in the conversation. Yet each also faces limitations that could influence the final political calculation.
As the political season approaches, the alignment of party leaders, the influence of key stakeholders, and the perception of the public will ultimately determine who emerges as the candidate capable of continuing the governance legacy that Borno has witnessed in recent years.
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