The Nigerian State is no longer capable of delivering the SDGs because it has been confiscated by an irresponsible self-serving political class that is reckless enough to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. The State is undergoing a three-dimensional crisis. The first one affects the political economy and is generated mainly by public corruption over the past four decades, which has created a run on the treasury at the national and state levels. The second one is the crisis of citizenship symbolised by ethno-regionalism…
Today, we see more clearly what history has produced – a world of centuries of wars, slavery, conquests, imperialism and colonialism. The outcome has been massive wealth on one side and mass poverty, inequality and misery on the other. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) had to be created as policy frameworks that could reduce, not correct, the injustice. Advancements in technology and production systems made correcting some of the ills possible. However, politics and power dynamics have created stumbling blocks to this. The current geopolitical dynamics is worsening the situation.
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The concentration of wealth in a few hands has increased dramatically. The world is changing dramatically as hegemons unravel and new ones are seeking to emerge. Fault lines are deepening as the old hegemons throw out the rules based international system, as imperfect as it was, and return to piracy and the 19th century style gunboat diplomacy, in which might is right. Death and destruction spreads as AI-aided warfare replaces the maxim gun, as the capacity for maximum destruction and genocide grows to infinite heights.
In this context, the outlook for the SDGs might be determined by Elon Musk’s statement that, “the fundamental weakness of Western civilisation is empathy,” during an appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast. To care for the poor, the hungry, the victims of violence requires empathy. Many among the richest and most powerful want an end to empathy, care, and would love to leave the masses behind. Trust the bloody capitalists to forget that it was the invention of the welfare State that saved their system from revolution.
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At this point, the masses have to seize the moment to galvanise their countries into remedial action to correct the injustice. Transformations in the global order must lead to an outcome in which states and societies are re-oriented to serve the public good. Re-imagining and re-creating a State that prioritises the production of public policies that promote the public good has become the most important agenda today. The SDGs is the mildest manifesto that spells out the policy framework for this re-invention. The argument about the SDGs is not about commitments of the international community. It is about the commitment of every State that hosts poverty and misery, as the Nigerian story reveals.
Nigeria is ranked 147th out of 167 countries on the global Sustainable Development Report index, with only one goal (Responsible Consumption and Production) exhibiting significant progress. Despite some improvements in maternal health and gender parity in education, substantial challenges in poverty reduction, healthcare, and security, alongside internal challenges, continue to hinder the overall SDG implementation. The country has failed to use its large population and abundant natural resources to promote the sustainable development goals. As Bode Agusto argues:
“Population is only a strength if it is well educated, healthy, the economy has the capacity to provide them with employment and households have enough income to buy goods and services produced by businesses.”
The population growth rate is a problem because Nigeria has been transformed in the last three decades into the poverty capital of the world. Extreme poverty in Nigeria remains one of the country’s most pressing crises. An estimated 130 to 141 million Nigerians — roughly 62 per cent of the population — experience multidimensional poverty, while struggling with severe deprivations in health, education, and living standards. Millions survive on less than $5 per day, amidst soaring inflation and economic volatility.
One of Nigeria’s biggest problem is uncontrolled population growth argues Agusto: “Every year, we add five million people to our population. This is roughly the size of Liberia or Montenegro. According to www.populationpyramid.net, in 1960, the population of the UK was 52 million, while that of Nigeria was 46 million, by 2015 the UK was 62 million while Nigeria was 185 million, and by 2070, Nigeria will be 550 million while the UK will be only 80 million! This means that over a period of 110 years, Nigeria will add over 500 million to her population whilst the UK would add only 30 million and the UK was coming from a higher base. This is frightening!”
The population growth rate is a problem because Nigeria has been transformed in the last three decades into the poverty capital of the world. Extreme poverty in Nigeria remains one of the country’s most pressing crises. An estimated 130 to 141 million Nigerians — roughly 62 per cent of the population — experience multidimensional poverty, while struggling with severe deprivations in health, education, and living standards. Millions survive on less than $5 per day, amidst soaring inflation and economic volatility. No regime in Nigeria’s history has borrowed as extensively as the erstwhile Buhari and current Tinubu administrations. The country has been borrowing massively to pay for recurrent budget expenditures, while revenues have been reducing, rather than growing.
In Nigeria, the public sector is not organised to provide public services to the people. The level of public expenditure on services such as health and education are much lower than those in other African countries. Budget figures are a poor indicator of public expenditure, because the amounts allocated are virtually never released in totality or even in significant percentages, so knowing the real expenditures is a challenge. Lack of accountability further erodes the capacity of institutions to deliver services. The design of policies is more influenced by bargaining within the cabal, than by public accountability mechanisms. The lack of information at national and subnational levels (e.g. on budget allocations, expenditures, development outcomes) impedes civil society organisations and the media from supervising governments’ policies, financial management and effectiveness in delivering public services.
These issues have largely broken the social pact between citizens and the State. That is why today, Nigerians find themselves in a moment of doubt about their nationhood. It is similar to the two earlier moments of doubt we have experienced – 1962-1970 when we went through a terrible civil war and the early 1990s when prolonged military rule created another round of challenges to the National Project. We survived those two moments…
Poverty in Nigeria is not evenly spread. The number of people living in poverty in the Northern region has been increasing since 2011 and by 2016, it represented 87 per cent of all the poor in Nigeria. In general, inequality has increased in recent years, as indicated by the 2025 Gini coefficient. The most important contemporary problem for Nigeria is the lack of opportunities for the youth. The country has developed a huge youth bulge that has been growing rapidly. This is happening at a time in which formal opportunities for employment are declining and having a job has become a minority experience. The North is the most affected region in the country in this regard. Especially the North-East and North-West are the most backward regions of Nigeria in all social sectors. It has the highest birth rate in the contemporary world, the lowest level of economic development, the least access to education, and the poorest network of health facilities and staff.
The Nigerian State is no longer capable of delivering the SDGs because it has been confiscated by an irresponsible self-serving political class that is reckless enough to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. The State is undergoing a three-dimensional crisis. The first one affects the political economy and is generated mainly by public corruption over the past four decades, which has created a run on the treasury at the national and state levels.
The second one is the crisis of citizenship symbolised by ethno-regionalism, the Boko Haram insurgency, violent ethno-religious conflicts, farmer-herder killings, agitations for Biafra, militancy in the Niger Delta and indigene/settler conflicts. The third element relates to the frustration of the country’s democratic aspirations in a context in which the citizenry believes in “true democracy,” but is confronted with a reckless political class that is corrupt, self-serving and manipulative.
These issues have largely broken the social pact between citizens and the State. That is why today, Nigerians find themselves in a moment of doubt about their nationhood. It is similar to the two earlier moments of doubt we have experienced – 1962-1970 when we went through a terrible civil war and the early 1990s when prolonged military rule created another round of challenges to the National Project. We survived those two moments and my message today is that for a brighter future, we need to rescue the Nigerian State through citizen action so that we can build a new one that can return to the culture of public service as public good. At the end of the day, Nigerians need to care less about empathy from the rest of the world and care more about how they can act to save the country.
A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.
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