IMF welcomes Nigeria’s December inflation easing, backs new CPI methodology

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has welcomed Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation figures, saying the easing of price pressures, if sustained, could help reduce cost-of-living pressures and support macroeconomic stability.

In a statement issued in Lagos, the IMF resident representation for Nigeria said the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed inflation moderating at the end of the year, reflecting both easing price pressures and improvements in statistical methodology.

The fund also endorsed recent changes to Nigeria’s CPI framework, describing them as a “welcome change” that aligned the country’s inflation measurement with international best practices set out by ECOWAS and the IMF’s 2020 CPI Manual.

Under the revised approach, the NBS linked the old CPI series to a rebased, reweighted index, using the full year of 2024 as the reference period. The IMF said this adjustment improved the stability of inflation data and enhanced comparability over time.

According to the NBS, headline inflation eased to 15.5 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, down from 17.33 per cent in the preceding month. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 0.54 per cent in December, compared to 1.22 per cent in November.

Food inflation also eased sharply during the period. The NBS said food inflation stood at 10.84 per cent year-on-year in December, down from 39.84 per cent in December 2024. Month-on-month, the food index declined to minus 0.36 per cent, from 1.13 per cent in November.

The decline in food inflation was attributed to falling average prices of key staples, including tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, ground pepper and onions.

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The IMF noted that the methodological changes led to a revision of Nigeria’s 2025 inflation figures, but the trend of inflation easing continued throughout the year.

Ahead of the data release, the NBS had cautioned that the rebasing exercise could result in a temporary “artificial spike” in the December inflation figures.

Adeyemi Adeniran, the statistician-general of the federation, said the adjustment in the reference period, known as the base year, would affect the headline number.

“This artificial spike is a result of the base effect of December 2024, which is equated to 100, following the rebasing exercise,” Mr Adeniran said.

While welcoming the latest data, the IMF stressed that sustained disinflation would be critical to easing household pressures and strengthening macroeconomic stability in the months ahead.