2027: Tinubu and Ndigbo, By Majeed Dahiru

Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, it appears the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may not be slowing down on the expansion of its sphere of influence into hitherto  hostile parts of Nigeria in its journey to possible one party dominance of the country. In addition to making successful inroad into the South South geo-political zone and greater parts of the Middle Belt, the South East geo-political zone is in the cusp of its political history, where a tectonic shift from its allegiance to the former ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC is about to be actualised. 

Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, Nigeria’s South-East geo-political, which is also the homeland of the Igbo, one of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria, has been the major artery of support for the PDP. The support of Ndigbo for the PDP was such that every Onye Igbo was associated with the party as though their umbilical cords were tied together. Even when one of theirs and a prominent founding father of the PDP, former vice president Alex Ekueme lost the presidential nomination bid of the party to Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba from Nigeria’s south west, Ndigbo still voted massively for the former ruling party in the 1999 presidential election. And despite the age long quest for a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction, Ndigbo voted massively for Umar Musa Yar’Adua, a northerner who was the presidential candidate of the PDP in 2027, against Odumegwu Ojukwu, a fellow Igbo man because in the estimation of most people of the South East, the Southern part of Nigeria had its turn in Obasanjo’s eight year rule and it was the turn of the North in compliance with the zoning and rotation principle of the party.

It was in keeping faith with the principles of zoning and rotation of presidential power between the North and North even when they weren’t direct beneficiaries yet, that then chairman of the PDP, Vincent Ogboluafor, an Igbo man from the south east declared unequivocally that the presidency of Nigeria remains in the north upon the death of former President Yar’Adua  one year to the end of his first four year tenure and warning ALL southerners in the party, including the sitting president Goodluck Jonathan to leave the stage for the 2011 presidential race for ONLY northerners. Ogbuluafor was to pay a steep price for this most principled stand on behalf of northern Nigeria because unbeknownst to him, President Jonathan, had the ambition to run against the principle of zoning. For standing for the principle of equity, justice and fairness for northern Nigeria, Vincent Ogbuluafor was forced out of office as party chairman and put on trial for trumped up charges of corruption.

Not done with their principled stand on the right direction for the party presidential nomination, Ekwesilieze Nwodo,another Igbo man from the south east who succeeded Ogbuluafor as PDP national chairman, turned out to be an ally of former vice president Atiku Abubabakar, who was the northern consensus candidate to challenge President Jonathan for the 2011 presidential nominee. Accused of working stealthily for the emergence of Atiku Abubakar, Chairman Nwodo was unceremoniously eased out of office and since no Igbo man can be trusted to betray the party’s principles of zoning and rotation that clearly favoured the North, Bello Mohammed Haliru, a northerner was appointed chairman of PDP in his stead. It was Bello Haliru that conducted the primary election that threw up Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner at time the candidacy of the party was due north. Thus began the beginning of the end of the PDP. But despite their effort to save the party from itself, Ndigbo again voted massively for the PDP in the 2011 presidential election.

However, the best the South East and its people have to offer the PDP was yet to come until the party fell from power in 2015. Apparently seeing through Muhammadu Buhari’s incompetence, divisiveness, bigotry and unbridled clannishness, Nidigbo rejected APC twice in 2015 and 2019 with an uncommon tenacity of courage that strengthened the PDP in opposition. And in rejecting President Buhari a second time, Ndigbo did not do so for a fellow Igbo man. They voted against President Buhari in 2019 in favour of Atiku Abubakar, a Hausa speaking Fulani Muslim from northern Nigeria like the then president to underscore the point that in rejecting APC’s Muhammadu Buhari, it was about his personality not his region, religion or ethnicity.

Unfortunately, after a dedicated 24 years of unalloyed loyalty, faithfulness and commitment to the PDP, when it was expected that the party will reward this south east geo-political zone with the presidential candidacy of the party going into the 2023 presidential election, the northern wing of the party led by former vice president Atiku Abubakar though otherwise. In what may go down as a classic case of grand betrayal of trust, loyalty and friendship, the northern wing of the PDP, for which Ndigbo have made political life threatening sacrifices and massive support decided to violate the zoning of the presidency to the south in general and the south east geo-political zone in particular. To make matters worse, it was Atiku Abubakar, a man who had enjoyed massive support from Ndigbo in the course of his political journey in the Fourth Republic that will mindlessly lead the prevention of the emergence of a PDP presidential candidate of Igbo extraction by taking it for himself.

But as I warned on this page on the perils of violating zoning going into the 2023 presidential election, the PDP has found itself on the wrong side of history of Ndigbo in the 4^th Republic. In an article titled ‘’That PDP May not Sail against the Wind’’, I warned; ‘’that the PDP may not sail against the strong wind of presidency that is blowing south, will be for the party to field a southern candidate as its presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election. For the PDP, 2023 presidential election is not just about ‘winnability’’ but actual survival. While the APC is dominant in the north and the PDP’s strongest support base is in the south, the move by the APC to field a southern candidate in the 2023 presidential election will torpedo the PDP from the region if the party fields a northern candidate. And if the PDP goes ahead to sail against the wind in 2023 by fielding a northern candidate, the ship of the party will capsize, sink into oblivion as the party will lose in the north and in the south to the APC and go into extinction in post Buhari Nigeria’’.

True to this prediction, PDP’s Atiku Abubakar lost in the North to APC’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a southerner and LP’s Peter Obi, a southerner in the south. Again, the PDP is currently sinking into oblivion as it has lost influence in the south, which used to be its strongest support base. But most importantly, the sinking PDP is being TORPEDOED from the south particularly the South East by the APC, which threw up a Nigerian president of southern Nigeria extraction in the person of Ahmed Bola Tinubu.

Therefore, the strategic realignment of individuals, groups and geo-political interests, beginning with massive defections in the south east from the PDP into the APC, which eventually culminated into the recent South East regional endorsement of President Tinubu and adoption of the APC as the mainstream political party of the region is simply a matter of cause and effect as previously predicted. Interestingly, President Tinubu, a grandmaster of establishment politics has also adopted the right approach of peaceful overture, reconciliation and inclusion despite losing massively in the region in the 2023 presidential election. So, the ‘’Izu Umunna’’ Enugu gathering of APC Chieftains, where an impressive array of Governors, federal law makers, federal government appointees and supporters of the ruling party collectively endorsed President Tinubu for a second term indeed marks a ‘’paradigm shift grounded in pragmatism’’ according to the host Governor Peter Mbah.

Majeed Dahiru, a public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja and can be reached through [email protected].