Wrong Governor, Right Old Data: That 18.7% expired in May 2023, by Emenike Vincent Onyembi

Politics is a game of numbers, and those who cannot interpret data correctly have no business playing it.

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That I do not work for Otti does not mean I will keep quiet when people spread lies. The Abia opposition has been running a campaign of misinformation, waving an 18.7% unemployment figure around as if it were a verdict on Governor Alex Otti’s administration.

They are currently spreading this figure across social media, hoping the average Abian will not ask one simple question, ‘when was this data collected?’

Let me state this as clearly as possible, the opposition is either deliberately deceiving the public or they do not understand how data works.

As someone who has personally visited the National Bureau of Statistics office in Abuja more than twice and has formally requested and obtained data from the bureau for research purposes, I know the difference between current statistics and historical records.

The 18.7% unemployment figure is NOT a reflection of Governor Otti’s performance. It is, in fact, a damning indictment of Governor Otti’s immediate past predecessor.

Come with me.

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On 24 September 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics released its Nigeria Labour Force Survey annual report for 2023. The report stated that Nigeria’s unemployment rate stood at 5.4%, while Abia State recorded the highest rate at 18.7%, and Nasarawa recorded the lowest at 0.5% [see reference: HERE

On the surface, this appears alarming. But any serious analyst must look beyond the headline.

The NBS itself clarified that this survey was conducted “in line with the International Labour Organisation guidelines between the 4th Quarter of 2022 and the 3rd Quarter of 2023” [see reference: HERE ]. This means the data collection period spanned 12 full months, from October 2022 to September 2023. Governor Otti was sworn into office on 29 May 2023.

Now, let us do the arithmetic.

The 4th quarter of 2022 (October to December 2022) falls entirely under the administration of Governor Okezie Ikpeazu.

The 1st quarter of 2023 (January to March 2023) falls entirely under Ikpeazu.

The 2nd quarter of 2023 (April to June 2023) includes nearly two full months of Ikpeazu (April and most of May) and only about one month of Otti (from 29 May).

The 3rd quarter of 2023 (July to September 2023) is the only period that falls substantially under Otti’s tenure.

Simple mathematics shows that of the 12 months covered by the NBS survey, approximately 10 to 11 months fell under the previous administration.

The opposition is, therefore, trying to hold Governor Otti accountable for an economic reality that he inherited, not created.

Another fact the opposition does not want the Abians and Nigerians to know is that the NBS has not conducted or released any new comprehensive unemployment survey data for Abia State since that 2023 report. The survey methodology was revised in 2022, and the 2023 annual report was the first of its kind under the new framework [see reference: HERE ]. The NBS has not published any subsequent state level unemployment figures that would reflect Governor Otti’s full tenure.

When the opposition quotes the 18.7% figure as if it were current, they are either ignorant of this fact or deliberately misleading the public. There is simply no newer NBS unemployment data available. Anyone can verify this by visiting the NBS website or, better yet, by walking into their Abuja office as I have done multiple times. The data does not exist because the bureau has not collected it yet.

If the opposition is genuinely concerned about the 18.7% unemployment rate, they should direct their anger and criticism at the person who was in charge during the period the data was collected, between October 2022/September 2023. The last administration presided over an economy that produced that alarming figure. The opposition should be asking why the last administration’s policies failed to create enough jobs, why industries died and why Abia’s business environment became so hostile that investors fled.

Instead, they are trying to deflect blame onto a governor who had barely unpacked his office when the survey period ended. This is not just dishonest, it is cowardly. Blame belongs where it is due, and it rests squarely on the immediate past administration.

If the 18.7% figure were truly a current reflection of Abia’s unemployment situation, it would contradict the visible economic transformation taking place across the state. Under Governor Otti’s leadership, Abia has witnessed a remarkable turnaround in its business environment, attracting new industries and reviving moribund ones at an unprecedented pace.

For me, this administration has made Abia a destination for serious investment. At the Osisioma industrial cluster in Aba, a multimillion-dollar beverage manufacturing company called Ultimum Limited has completed the first phase of its factory, producing Razzl soft drink and aiming to feed the entire African market.

Governor Otti has pledged full government support for the company and immediately approved the reconstruction of the road leading to the factory to reduce production costs [see reference: HERE]. This is a clear example of how good governance attracts investment.

The governor has also invited SINOMA Materials Company Nigeria Limited to establish its factory in Abia State, noting that the company’s presence would create jobs for the people and contribute to Abia’s Gross Domestic Product.

The company has been directed to consider setting up around the Osisioma axis, which enjoys 24-hour power supply courtesy of Geometric Power Limited [see reference: HERE ].

The Federal Government has approved the establishment of a modular refinery at the Abia Industrial and Innovation Park (AIIP) in Owaza, Ukwa West Local Government Area. This 10,000-barrel-per-day modular refinery is expected to provide 1,000 direct jobs and countless indirect jobs for Abians.

When scaled to 30,000 barrels per day, it will create 3,000 direct jobs and attract $300 million in foreign direct investment [see reference: HERE ] [reference: HERE]. This is not a pipe dream, construction is set to commence in this first quarter of 2026 [see reference: Abia modular refinery ].

Governor Otti has also taken over the moribund Star Paper Mill from the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria, paying N2.5 billion to repossess the company. The revival of Star Paper Mill alone is projected to create over 5,000 jobs [see reference: moribund Industries ].

Additionally, negotiations are at an advanced stage with foreign investors, including a Lebanese firm, to revive the Aba Textile Mill, the International Glass Industry, and the Metallurgical Plant [see reference: HERE].

Five moribund industries, Star Paper Mill, Textiles Mills, International Equitable Associates, Afro Beverages, and Ogwe Golden Chicken, are all being revived to boost manufacturing and job creation [see reference: HERE ].

None of these investments would have happened if the business environment in Abia had not improved.

Governor Otti has simplified the state’s tax system using digital technology platforms, closing all channels of revenue leakage and building confidence in the system [see reference: Tax system ].

The state executive council has approved the Business Environment and Reforms Action Plan aimed at improving the ease of doing business, increasing investment, and creating jobs [see reference: 2025 fiscal year]. Also, the government has an ambitious plan to catapult Abia State to number one in the ease of doing business index [see reference: HERE]

Governor Otti has launched the MSME Competitiveness and Industrial Productivity Programme (MCIPP), a major initiative aimed at strengthening small businesses, enhancing product quality, and promoting local manufacturing.

The programme targets the certification of 1,000 artisans, the registration of 2,000 businesses, and the trademarking of 100 indigenous brands in its first phase [see reference: HERE].

The administration has also earmarked N2 billion to support Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises under the state’s cooperative support scheme, following N1 billion disbursed the previous year [see reference: HERE].

Governor Otti has not been sitting idle, waiting for investors to create jobs. His administration has taken direct action to put Abians to work. The government has approved the employment of 69 outstanding TechRise ICT graduates into the state civil service and provided laptops to 1,366 additional graduates of the programme [see reference: Civil service].

Over 1,360 youths have been trained in full-stack development, cybersecurity, mobile app development, data and artificial intelligence engineering, etc. [see reference: HERE].

Governor Otti has given N150 million in grants to 150 graduates of Ogbonnaya Onu Polytechnic, Aba, N1 million each, to enable them to start their own businesses [see reference: HERE ].

The government has also set up a committee to collaborate with an indigenous agribusiness firm on a large scale integrated livestock and dairy farm expected to create over 20,000 jobs when fully operational [see reference: Livestock investment].

Furthermore, the administration has earmarked N13 billion to establish agro-industrial processing zones in Bende, Ukwa, and Umunneochi local government areas [see reference: HERE].

These are not empty promises. These are verifiable actions that are already laying the foundation for sustainable job creation. Governor Otti has consistently stated that fostering investment growth is vital for creating employment opportunities for the numerous unemployed youths in Abia. The results speak for themselves.

Dear Abia State opposition, stop manipulating statistics to score cheap political points. If you want to debate unemployment in Abia, debate the facts, not the fiction you have manufactured. The 18.7% unemployment data is a record of the last administration, not Governor Otti’s. You cannot judge a governor’s performance using data collected predominantly before he even assumed office.

As someone who has formally requested and obtained data from the NBS and has visited their Abuja office multiple times, I know how data works. The NBS has not conducted any new comprehensive unemployment survey since the 2023 report. There is no current unemployment data for Abia State under Governor Otti because the bureau has not collected it yet. When you quote that 18.7% figure as current, you are either incompetent with data or deliberately dishonest.

My advice to you is simple: visit the NBS office in Abuja yourself. Request the current data. See what the latest figures say. You will find that there are no new state level unemployment figures available.

Until then, stop spreading falsehood. Shame belongs where shame is due, and that is squarely on the immediate past administration, who presided over the economy that produced that 18.7% unemployment rate.

I think Governor Alex Otti is busy rebuilding Abia’s economy, brick by brick, job by job. New industries are springing up, moribund factories are being revived, and thousands of Abians are being empowered to become entrepreneurs and skilled workers.

The 18.7% figure cannot possibly be a reflection of current reality because the Abia we see today under Governor Otti is not the same Abia that existed under his predecessor.

The visible economic transformation alone, new factories, revived industries, improved roads, stable power supply, and a business friendly environment, contradicts any suggestion that unemployment remains at that level.

Let the opposition continue their propaganda if they wish. But the data does not lie, and neither do the visible results on the ground. Abia is moving forward under Governor Otti, and no amount of recycled old data from the last administration era will change that fact.

*Emenike Vincent Onyembi is a policy development analyst based in Abuja. He can be reached via [email protected].