Political tensions within Nigeria’s two most dominant parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), could present an opening for the newcomer Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) to gain relevance in Plateau State, political analysts say.
While the APC-PDP rivalry has long shaped the state’s political landscape, analysts note that voter confidence in both parties has weakened amid internal strains, particularly among young and urban voters seeking alternatives.
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However, observers are careful to distinguish between the two parties’ situations. There is currently no visible internal or leadership crisis in the APC in Plateau, though tensions are building ahead of party primaries as rival interest groups jostle for advantage.
Primaries build up, and the risk of disenchantment
Analysts say the period leading up to party primaries is often volatile, with disputes over zoning, delegate selection, and perceived candidate imposition.
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Although such tensions have not crystallised into an open crisis within the APC in Plateau, political observers warn that unresolved grievances could spill over after the primaries.
Peter Ishaku, a political analyst, said the post-primaries phase is typically the most delicate.
“After primaries, you see contestants and their supporters feeling betrayed,” Mr Ishaku said. “Many either withdraw support quietly or leave the party entirely. That is usually when smaller parties like the NDC can gain traction if they act quickly and strategically.”
He said that even without a formal leadership crisis, lingering resentment from the primaries could weaken grassroots mobilisation in competitive local government areas.
PDP’s lingering internal struggles
Unlike the APC’s pre-primaries tensions, the PDP in Plateau has grappled with deeper internal challenges in recent years. Once the dominant party in the state, the PDP has faced leadership disagreements, defections and weakened ward structures following high-profile exits to the APC.
A PDP leader in the state, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak publicly, acknowledged the difficulties.
“We are working hard to rebuild unity, but there is no denying that the party has faced challenges,” the party official said. “However, the PDP remains the most experienced opposition platform in Plateau.”
Lessons from Labour Party’s 2023 surge
The 2023 general elections underscored the electoral potential of emerging parties, particularly the Labour Party. Although it did not win Plateau State, the party recorded a noticeable surge in support among youths, professionals and first-time voters disenchanted with the traditional parties.
Analysts say the experience demonstrated that entrenched party dominance can be disrupted when public frustration aligns with organised mobilisation and a clear message, a lesson the NDC could draw from as voter loyalty becomes increasingly fluid.
Opportunities and risks for the NDC
Political observers argue that the NDC could benefit from post-primaries disenchantment in both major parties if it positions itself as a credible and structured alternative.
“Disgruntled members are more likely to defect when they feel their grievances are ignored,” Mr Ishaku said. “But the NDC must be careful. Defection without clear rules and ideology can create the same internal problems they are trying to escape.”
APC leadership reacts
Responding to concerns about possible defections, an APC chieftain in Plateau, Sylvanus Damter, dismissed suggestions of an impending crisis.
“The APC remains united and focused on winning elections,” the party leader said. “Every primary election produces disagreements, but we have mechanisms for reconciliation.”
He insisted that the ongoing pre-primaries tensions would not weaken the party’s electoral prospects in the state.
Youth mobilisation and ideology
Plateau-based analyst Michael Solomon said shifting attitudes among young voters could redefine opposition politics in the state.
“Young people are no longer voting strictly along party lines,” Mr Solomon said. “They are watching how parties treat their members, how transparent their processes are, and whether they offer real solutions.”
He said the NDC’s prospects would depend on whether it can move beyond protest politics to articulate a clear ideological identity and build durable grassroots structures.
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Conclusion
As the APC navigates pre-primaries tensions without a visible leadership crisis and the PDP continues efforts to overcome lingering internal divisions, the NDC faces a potentially defining opportunity in Plateau State.
The Labour Party’s 2023 experience suggests voter realignment is possible when political dissatisfaction meets effective organisation.
Whether the NDC can convert emerging discontent into lasting relevance will depend on its ability to maintain internal discipline, expand its grassroots presence and present a compelling alternative to Plateau’s dominant parties.
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