ANALYSIS: AFCON semi-final fixtures revive enduring West–North Africa rivalry

As the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) enters its decisive stage, a familiar pattern has returned. Nigeria, Senegal, Egypt, and the host nation, Morocco, have booked places in the semi-finals. This ensures that the last four teams are entirely from North and West Africa.

This is not new territory for African football. It is, in fact, a long-running story. AFCON 2025 marks the eighth time in the tournament’s history that only North and West African teams have reached the semi-finals. From Cairo to Casablanca, and from Lagos to Dakar, these two regions have shaped the competition more than any others.

A look at the numbers explains why.

Since the tournament began in 1957, North and West Africa have combined to win 22 of the 34 AFCON titles. The tally is evenly split, with 11 titles each. No other region on the continent comes close to this level of success.

Egypt lead the way among North African teams with a record seven titles. Ghana are the most successful West African side, with four championships. Together, these nations have helped set standards that others still struggle to match.

History also shows that North and West Africa often dominate the tournament’s business end. In 1965, the semi-final line-up included Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal from West Africa, with Tunisia representing the North. The 1976 edition, played in a round-robin format, featured Morocco, Guinea, Nigeria and Egypt in the top four.

Similar patterns followed in 1980. Nigeria were joined by North African sides Morocco, Algeria and Egypt. In 2004, the semi-finals again reflected regional dominance, with Morocco, Tunisia, Mali and Nigeria making the last four. Two years later, Egypt, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Senegal repeated the trend.

In 2010, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria and Algeria occupied the semi-final spots. In 2013, all four semi-finalists—Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali and Ghana—came from West Africa.

The 2019 tournament featured Algeria, Senegal, Nigeria and Tunisia. The current edition once again sees Nigeria, Senegal, Morocco and Egypt leading the race.

Even beyond the semi-finals, the pattern remains strong. Apart from the 1974 final between Zaire (now DR Congo) and Zambia, every AFCON final has featured at least one team from either North or West Africa.

There has only been one all–North Africa final. That came in 2004, when host Tunisia defeated Morocco. West Africa, however, has produced several all-West finals. The first was in 1992, when hosts Senegal staged a final between Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, with the Ivorians winning on penalties.

Later editions followed the same pattern: Nigeria vs. Burkina Faso in 2013, Côte d’Ivoire vs. Ghana in 2015, and Côte d’Ivoire vs. Nigeria in 2023.

Across the previous seven occasions when the semi-finals were made up entirely of North and West African teams, North Africa has been more successful. They lifted the trophy five times. The exceptions were 1965, when Ghana won, and 1980, when Nigeria triumphed on home soil.

So why do North and West Africa keep returning to the top?

Football analysts point to structure, history and player development. Speaking to PREMIUM TIMES, sports analyst and historian Kolade Lawal said consistency has played a major role.

“North and West African countries invested early in football,” he said. “They built strong domestic leagues, national team systems and coaching structures long before others caught up. That foundation still matters today.”

Another factor is player exposure. Long before other regions, Many players from North and West Africa compete in top European leagues. They gain experience at the highest level, and that exposure often shows at AFCON, where pressure, tactics and game management decide matches.

A football development consultant, Segun Durojaiye, also told PREMIUM TIMES that mentality separates these regions.

“There is a deep belief in these teams that AFCON is theirs to win,” he said. “Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, and now Morocco arrive at tournaments expecting to go far. That confidence becomes a competitive advantage.”

North Africa, in particular, has benefited from tactical discipline and strong defensive organisation. Egypt’s seven titles were built on solid team shape and tournament experience.

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Morocco’s recent rise reflects improved planning, youth development and continuity in coaching.

West Africa, on the other hand, has traditionally leaned on flair, athleticism and attacking depth. From Rashidi Yekini to Austin Okocha and Abedi Pele, Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal have produced generations of players capable of changing games with pace and power. Côte d’Ivoire’s golden era, powered by the likes of the Toure brothers (Yaya and Kolo) in the 2010s, further underlined the region’s strength.

AFCON 2025 brings these traditions together once again. Nigeria and Senegal represent West Africa’s physical and attacking edge. Egypt and Morocco embody North Africa’s tactical calm and structure. The semi-finals promise not just big matches, but a continuation of a rivalry that has defined African football for decades.

For Central, East and Southern Africa, the challenge remains clear. While nations such as Cameroon, DR Congo, Zambia and South Africa have enjoyed moments of success, sustained dominance has remained elusive.

As AFCON 2025 heads towards its climax, the familiar powers are once again in control. Whether the trophy ends in Abuja, Cairo, Rabat or Dakar, one thing is certain: the North–West rivalry remains the backbone of Africa’s biggest football stage.