Tinubu’s Largest Northeast Vote: How Dr Nura Manu Soro delivered Bauchi

In the intricate chessboard of Bauchi politics, one name continues to echo across wards, local governments, and power circles- Dr Nura Manu Soro. Young, strategic, and deeply rooted in grassroots mobilisation, he has steadily built a reputation as a political operator whose influence extends beyond campaign rhetoric into measurable electoral outcomes.

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The 2023 presidential election provided the clearest evidence yet. While many focused on national permutations, behind the scenes in Bauchi State, Dr Nura Manu Soro was coordinating one of the most structured mobilisation efforts in the Northeast. As Bauchi State Coordinator of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign, he oversaw stakeholder engagement from state leaders to ward-level operatives, strengthened dormant structures, and ensured campaign resources reached the grassroots where elections are truly decided.

In the run-up to the 2023 elections, Bauchi was the only state in the entire country where the gubernatorial candidate was replaced as the presidential election coordinator. President Tinubu, through the then Minister of Education, Adamu Adamu, replaced the APC candidate, Air Marshal Sadiq, with the strategic Dr. Nura Manu Soro, whom they believed would gather and deliver more value to the APC; a position the election outcome clearly validated.

The outcome was not accidental: it was strategic. When the votes were counted, Bauchi emerged as the largest contributor to the Tinubu/Shettima tally in the Northeast, delivering 316,694 votes out of the region’s 1,185,458 total, representing 26.7% of the entire Northeast votes — the highest from any state in the zone.

Northeast Vote Breakdown (Tinubu/Shettima 2023):

• Bauchi — 316,694 (26.7%)

• Borno — 252,282 (21.3%)

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• Adamawa — 182,881 (15.%)

• Yobe — 151,459 (12.8%)

• Gombe — 146,977 (12.4%)

• Taraba — 135,165 (11.4%)

This performance placed Bauchi ahead of traditional APC strongholds in the Northeast and underscored the effectiveness of a coordinated grassroots strategy. Political observers within the state credited the outcome to Dr. Soro’s network, logistics coordination, and ability to rally diverse blocs under a single campaign direction.

But 2023 was not his first decisive intervention. Dr. Nura Manu Soro had earlier demonstrated political weight during the 2019 Bauchi governorship election, where he played a key role in the strategy that led to the defeat of then an incumbent governor Mohammed Abubakar and subsequent emergence of current Governor Bala Mohammed; a rare occurrence in Nigerian politics. His ability to mobilize across party lines and influence electoral dynamics marked him as a rising force long before the presidential contest.

His strength was again visible during the 2023 APC gubernatorial primaries. Despite the circumstances surrounding the contest, Dr. Soro only lost the primaries to a small margin from delegates’ votes; a remarkable showing for a candidate widely considered the youngest major contender in the state history. The result confirmed both his growing acceptance and the depth of his political structures across Bauchi State.

Beyond numbers, Dr. Soro’s long-standing relationship with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has also become a subject of political calculation within APC circles. Party stakeholders believe this connection, combined with his grassroots reach, positions him as a bridge between national leadership and local structures, a factor often decisive in governorship contests.

As the 2027 political horizon begins to take shape, discussions within Bauchi APC increasingly revolve around electability, structure, and loyalty. Many argue that a candidate who has already demonstrated the capacity to deliver the largest Northeast votes for Tinubu possesses the momentum required for a statewide victory.

With Dr Nura Manu Soro as the APC gubernatorial flag bearer in 2027, party strategists believe the equation becomes straightforward: a united structure, tested grassroots network, and alignment with the presidency.

If the 2023 presidential election was a rehearsal, then 2027 may well be the main stage, and in Bauchi’s evolving political narrative, Dr Nura Manu Soro appears determined not just to participate, but to lead the APC to a landslide victory.