Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the opposition in Zamfara Sate have always done well against daunting challenges. They have defeated two sitting governors (2007 and 2023), and have won seats in the state and national assemblies in every election cycle.
In 2023, fuelled by the popularity of a relatively new politician, Dauda Lawal, a weak Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) wrested the governorship and a senatorial seat from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), retained its three House of Representatives seats and won a majority in the 24-member state House of Assembly. With the current Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, sitting as governor and the ruling party having Senators Abdulaziz Yari, Kabiru Marafa, Sahabi Ya’u, Hassan Nasiha, Ahmad Sani and a host of other heavyweight politicians in its rank in Zamfara, supported by federal might, not many political pundits gave the PDP much chance in the state. But it did.
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Three years later, however, the canvass has changed and the APC is once again going into the elections as the state’s ruling party. Mr Lawal, just like his predecessor, Mr Matawalle, did, has taken all the PDP members of the House of Representatives and State House of Assembly to the APC. All the members of the state executive council also followed the governor, except Wadatau Madawaki, the education commissioner, who has now joined the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
But the PDP is again not deterred. However, the party is not alone in the fight to unseat the APC. The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and ADC have also attracted top politicians from the APC and the PDP, and are approaching the elections with optimism.
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PDP stitching its wounds
The PDP in the state is backed by former defence minister and national security adviser, Aliyu Muhammad (better known as Ali Gusau). In 2023, the intelligence veteran provided financial and moral support for the PDP in the 14 local government areas in the state to oust Mr Matawalle from the Government House in Gusau. Ironically he had been the main backer of Mr Matawalle in 2019 as the PDP candidate. While Mr Lawal, a top banker and businessman, also contributed financially to the PDP campaign, it was believed that the retired army general’s financial contributions were significant, especially in the central senatorial zone where the PDP won with a wide margin.
Mr Muhammad is still the PDP godfather, but may not be enthusiastic in his support, after the two governors he helped instal, (Mr Matawalle in 2019 and Mr Lawal in 2023), dumped the party for the APC.
That notwithstanding, party members told PREMIUM TIMES that many aspirants bought the PDP nomination and expression of interest forms, indicating that the party remains strong in Zamfara.
‘When the governor left, I thought that would be the end of PDP in the state,” Bello Mohammed, a Gusau based political analyst, told PREMIUM TIMES. “Wadatau Madawaki also joined the ADC, that was a blow but it (massive sale of forms) says a lot about the efforts being made by the PDP. I will not be surprised if they win seats in the next election.”.
Another factor that may help the PDP is the presence and the possible candidature for governor of Ibrahim Shehu (known as Ibrahim Shehu Bakauye). A former House of Representatives member, Mr Shehu is an old member of the PDP and contested for the party’s ticket against the incumbent governor in 2023.
Like Governor Lawal, the engineer is also from Gusau area in the central zone.
“The party’s (PDP) confidence is further bolstered by an aggressive campaign of grassroots mobilisation. Party stalwarts and volunteers are going into local communities, amplifying this message of comparative governance and listening to the day-to-day concerns of the electorate,’ Khalifa Jaafar, a journalist and political analyst, said in a recent analysis on the chances of PDP making a surprise in the next general election.
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Can Marafa’s NDC surprise APC?
Not many people were surprised when Kabiru Marafa, an ally of President Bola Tinubu and the head of his 2023 campaign in Zamfara State, left the APC for ADC in April. The surprise came when he left the ADC for the NDC barely three weeks after.
A shrewd politician, Mr Marafa has been eyeing the governorship seat in the state since 2019. When the then-governor, Abdulaziz Yari, anointed his finance commissioner, Mukhtar Shehu, Mr Marafa sued the APC to challenge the party’s primary elections’ process. The Supreme Court eventually voided the primaries after the polls had been conducted, and handed all the seats it won to the opposition PDP. That was how Mr Matawalle, the defeated PDP candidate, became governor.
Mr Marafa has led the NDC to conduct ward and local government congresses in the state and has picked the party’s governor’s ticket unopposed.
PREMIUM TIMES understands that Mr Marafa leans heavily on his ‘good deeds’ when he served as a senator for two terms. He has the capacity to pull crowds as he used his stay at the Red Chamber to provide jobs for young people all over the state. Now, he is expecting a payback
He is also from Gusau in the central zone. But so are Governor Lawal and Mr Shehu of the PDP. Since 1999, the western zone has produced three governors (Ahmad Sani 1999-2007, Abdulaziz Yari 2011-2019 and Bello Matawalle 2019-2023), and the northern zone has produced one governor (Mahmud Aliyu 2007-2011). The parties are aware that a candidate from outside the central zone may not be able to challenge Mr Lawal in his vote-rich home turf.
