Data, facts show Trump lied about ‘white genocide’ in South Africa

The lie of a ‘genocide’ against white farmers in South Africa took centre stage when presidents Cyril Ramaphosa and Donald Trump met on 21 May. The fact is that there is no ‘white genocide’ in South Africa, so it was shocking to hear the claim made at a formal diplomatic meeting in the White House.

Among the so-called evidence presented by Mr Trump to support the assertion was a video including footage purportedly of a ‘mass funeral’ for the white victims of farm attacks. The video showed what looked to be kilometres of white crosses lining a road. That footage was actually of a 2020 protest by agricultural groups highlighting concerns about murders on farms. The crosses were a monument to these deaths over two decades, not mass graves.

The protest came two weeks after farming couple Glen and Vida Rafferty were shot and killed as they entered their home in KwaZulu-Natal province. The trauma suffered by their family, friends and colleagues had a huge impact on their rural community. Three of the four attackers were convicted – the fourth was murdered before the trial finished.

Despite being used for Mr Trump’s political misinformation campaign, the incident highlights three important realities of violent crime in South Africa, of which farm attacks are one part. First, murder and armed robbery rates are unacceptably high. Second, these crimes affect all South Africans – not mostly white people and not mostly farmers. Third, crime causes discontent across all communities, who frequently hold protests and call for remedial action.

Between 2000 and 2015, two independent inquiries examined violent incidents on farms. The first was instituted by then police minister Steve Tshwete; the second by the South African Human Rights Commission.

Both investigated claims that attacks on farms and smallholdings were part of a political campaign to force white farmers off their land. Neither inquiry, nor other credible police or private investigations since then, have found any evidence to support such allegations.

Whether genocide has been committed is not a matter of opinion but of international law. Under the 1948 Genocide Convention and the 1998 Rome Statute, genocide is defined as murder or other harmful acts intended to destroy, in whole or in part, an ethnic group. If the Trump administration believes genocide is being committed in South Africa, there are legal avenues available to confirm this and take action. None have been pursued.

The motive for farm murders in South Africa is almost always robbery – not part of an effort to ‘destroy, in whole or in part, an ethnic group.’ Some cases are driven by labour disputes or domestic violence. While those living in rural areas and on farms may be vulnerable due to their isolation and lack of security and support services, claims that farmers are more at risk of being murdered than the average member of the public have not been proven.

Those who allege an orchestrated campaign against white farmers tend to cite low arrest and prosecution rates for such crimes. An AfriForum study of such cases between 2016 and 2021 revealed that only 18% resulted in a conviction.

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However, this does not indicate the government’s lack of concern with crimes against farmers specifically. Overall, the South African Police Service’s ability to detect murder nationally dropped by 65 per cent since 2012 and as of last year, stood at 11 per cent. Over the past five years, the conviction rate for murder nationally was just 13 per cent – lower than in the AfriForum report. Serious criminal justice system shortcomings affect everyone, not only those in rural areas or farmers in particular.

South Africa has one of the highest murder rates worldwide, along with high numbers of armed robberies. These violent crimes, which also affect farmers, are part of a larger, more complex problem that transcends race and culture.

For example, in the 2023-24 financial year, the 49 murders on farms recorded by AfriForum represented 0.2 per cent of the 27,621 murders suffered nationally. And the 296 farm attacks recorded by AfriForum made up 0.7 per cent of the 42,206 robberies recorded by police across the country.

While murders increased by 127 cases nationally from the previous year, AfriForum recorded a drop in one case from 50 to 49 for those occurring on farms. Over the same period, farm attacks decreased by 12.7 per cent while the total number of robberies dropped by 2.1 per cent.

These statistics are not just numbers. They reflect shattered lives and traumatised communities across South Africa. Many citizens have taken action, with positive results, as the figures above suggest. Some involved in agriculture have improved relations with neighbouring communities and adopted practical measures to enhance their safety, such as those of the KwaZulu-Natal agricultural association Kwanalu.

Of course, the government must improve safety, including in rural areas. This is acknowledged in the National Rural Safety Strategy. However, the strategy has not been fully implemented, with resource and infrastructure shortages among the challenges.

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South Africa has the knowledge and tools to address high levels of violence. It will take good leadership in the criminal justice system and strengthening the police’s ability to detect and investigate cases. But these measures aren’t enough to sustainably reduce crime. Concerted efforts are needed across government to tackle inequality and poverty and invest in violence prevention.

The politically motivated, racist claim that white South Africans face a genocide has been circulating among fringe far-right and neo-Nazi groups for years. In the United States (US), the late David Lane – a neo-Nazi and convicted criminal – popularised the theory in his 1988 book White Genocide Manifesto. Lane is seen as one of the most important US ideologues of contemporary white supremacy by those who study and resist the phenomenon in that country.

Perhaps this tells us more about the motives of the Trump administration and its approach to domestic politics than any pretence at concern with South African farmers.

Gareth Newham, Head, Justice and Violence Prevention, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).