ANALYSIS: Can Simon Ekpa’s arrest end insecurity in South-east Nigeria?

On 21 November, the Finnish Central Criminal Police arrested Simon Ekpa, a controversial Biafra agitator.

Mr Ekpa, a Nigerian-Finnish citizen, was arrested alongside four others on suspicion of terrorist activities.

The Finnish police said he “has contributed to violence and crimes against civilians in South-eastern Nigeria.”

The District Court of Päijät-Häme later ordered that the agitator be imprisoned “with probable cause on suspicion of public incitement to commit a crime with terrorist intent.”

Mr Ekpa heads Autopilot, a faction of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). IPOB is agitating for an independent state of Biafra, which it wants carved out from the south-east and some parts of south-south Nigeria.

The separatist group has been blamed for some deadly attacks in the two regions, although it has repeatedly denied its involvement in the attacks.

Although Nnamdi Kanu founded IPOB in 2012, the separatist group now has various factions.

Meanwhile, hours after the arrest, the IPOB faction loyal to Mr Kanu disowned Mr Ekpa, explaining that the Biafra agitator was never its member.

Simon Ekpa’s link to insecurity, sit-at-home in South-east

The Nigerian government rearrested Mr Kanu in July 2021 to continue his trial on charges of terrorism.

By August of the same year, IPOB ordered a sit-at-home every Monday across the South-east to pressure the government to release its detained leader.

Following public outcry, the separatist group later restricted the order to only days when Mr Kanu appears in court.

But despite its suspension, Mr Ekpa continued to issue sit-at-home orders in the region, during which some residents who step out are killed or attacked by gunmen enforcing the illegal order.

IPOB repeatedly said those still enforcing the order were “criminals attempting to blackmail” the separatist group.

In late July 2023, Mr Kanu, through Aloy Ejimakor, his special counsel, ordered Mr Ekpa to stop issuing sit-at-home orders in the region.

However, Mr Ekpa described the letter as “fake” and maintained that the illegal order would continue until Mr Kanu spoke to him directly in Finland, a Northern European country where he (Ekpa) resides.

Apart from enforcing the illegal sit-at-home order, Mr Ekpa has been linked to growing insecurity in south-east Nigeria.

The agitator has been using his social media pages, mainly X, to push the secession agenda, issue illegal orders, disseminate fake news, and solicit funds for suspected terrorist activities.

On 3 July 2023, for instance, he posted via his verified X handle that 50 men and 50 women were needed to fund the Biafra movement with $10,000 monthly for the next six months, saying this would enable the restoration of Biafra by the end of 2023.

Shortly after establishing Autopilot, a faction of the IPOB, Mr Ekpa announced the creation of the Biafra Liberation Army and Biafra Defence Forces, which allegedly carried out criminal activities such as the killing of security operatives and enforcement of sit-at-home orders in South-east Nigeria.

He subsequently declared himself as the prime minister of the Biafra Republican Government In-Exile.

The Biafra agitator repeatedly claimed responsibility for various attacks and killings in the region.

Can Ekpa’s arrest quell insecurity in the South-east?

A resident of Enugu State, Daniel Ukwu, said the arrest of Mr Ekpa will not stop insecurity and sit-at-home in the South-east.

Mr Ukwu, an estate manager, claimed a new leader of the Mr Ekpa-led separatist group has emerged. The new leader, a female, may follow in the footsteps of the arrested Biafra agitator.

“You know, Ekpa’s group is an organised group. Arresting him is just pouring water on stone,” he said.

He said Mr Ekpa was not the origin of insecurity in the South-east but only “took advantage of the anger” over Mr Kanu’s detention to perpetrate crimes in the region.

“I don’t see Ekpa’s arrest solving the major problem, which is the continued detention of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu. They should release Kanu so that we can have peace.”

On his part, a lecturer at the Department of Mass Communication of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Ifeanyi Anorue, believes that insecurity in the South-east was “politically motivated” to demonise Biafra agitation by IPOB.

Mr Anorue, a professor, argued that the arrest of Mr Ekpa looked like a “political arrangement” by the Nigerian government.

“I see the action of Simon Ekpa as a distraction, not by IPOB, but by those in power so that whatever Simon Ekpa is doing with his boys in the South-east, they will say ‘it is IPOB that’s doing it.’

“And as they are doing it, they are causing confusion and a lot of damage to the economy of the South-east,” he told PREMIUM TIMES.

The lecturer faulted the Nigerian government for declaring IPOB as a terrorist group without doing the same to Fulani herders, who he alleged carry out deadly attacks across Nigeria.

“They are using Simon Ekpa to incriminate IPOB as a way of justifying the idea that IPOB is a terrorist group,” he said, adding that IPOB was neither armed nor violent at the initial stage.

He suggested that Mr Ekpa’s arrest might be a plot to get Mr Kanu released on the condition that he drop his quest for Biafra Independence.

Similarly, Chris Nze, an indigene of Aguata Local Government Area of Anambra State, and John Ojinnaka, a taxi driver in Onitsha, told PREMIUM TIMES in separate interviews that Mr Ekpa’s arrest will not stop insecurity and sit-at-home in the South-east.

Like others, Messrs Nze and Ojinnaka believe that Mr Ekpa’s followers and sponsors would appoint another fellow in his place.

In Owerri, Imo State, Donatus Ogbonna, a taxi driver, said Mr Ekpa’s arrest will not solve insecurity in the South-east.

“I know that other people will take up the struggle with the arrest of Simon Ekpa.

“So both sit-at-home and insecurity will not stop because they are only holding one person,” Mr Ogbonna said, emphasising that Mr Kanu’s release will solve the problem instead.

A police operative in Umuahia, Abia State capital, told PREMIUM TIMES on Wednesday that Mr Ekpa’s arrest in Finland could worsen insecurity in the region.

“When those boys (loyal to Simon Ekpa) look for their leader, and they don’t see him, they can start unprovoked attacks on residents,” the operative, who asked not to be named for fear of being attacked, explained.

Like others, he argued that only the release of Mr Kanu can stop insecurity in the South-east.

He suggested that authorities were unwilling to release Mr Kanu and quell insecurity in the South-east because they benefit from funds being voted into the security sector.

“Look at what is happening. Every day, they (Mr Ekpa’s boys) are killing security operatives. Why can’t they settle this thing?

“The Nigerian government should just dialogue with Nnamdi Kanu and release him,” he said.

But Benjamin Ohadoma, a resident of Owerri in Imo State, contended that the arrest of Mr Ekpa can quell the insecurity and sit-at-home in the South-east.

Mr Ohadama stressed that although a new leader might emerge to replace him, such a leader would be cautious in following Mr Ekpa’s path.

“Whoever that will replace him (Ekpa) should be afraid. I don’t think the person will be outspoken and act like him considering that he (Ekpa) and Nnamdi Kanu were arrested,” he said.

What experts say

A security expert, Kabir Adamu, told PREMIUM TIMES that Mr Ekpa’s arrest has multiple consequences depending on how it is handled.

Mr Adamu, the managing director of Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited, said Mr Ekpa’s arrest could enhance security in the region if he is prosecuted.

“Now that Simon Ekpa has been silenced, even if it is temporary, if he is prosecuted, then it will go a long way towards sending a message of deterrence to anyone who wants to engage in such acts.

“However, if he is extradited, it will be better because it will solidify the position of the rule of law. But if he is released and freed, that deterrence element I just mentioned will be reversed. It will then strengthen him (Ekpa) and his followers to now continue their activities,” he said.

Continuing, the expert said: “The third scenario is where he is detained and not prosecuted. One of the various factions of the IPOB can decide to fill the space that he has left vacant by beginning his own rhetoric and agitating for similar action like Ekpa has been agitating in a bit to exert influence.”

Mr Adamu stressed that a faction of IPOB would more likely take over Mr Ekpa’s position if Mr Kanu remained in detention.

“In all of these, there is an opportunity for both the federal and state governments to engage in some form of discussion with the leadership of pro-Biafra groups, especially Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, who is in detention and find a political settlement to the whole issue and that will eliminate the (security) threat almost in its entirety,” he said.

“In the absence of that, the possibility of the re-emergence of some threat elements around both the detention of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu and the arrest and prosecution of Simon Ekpa is extremely high.”

Patrick Agbambu, another security expert, also believes that Mr Ekpa’s arrest will douse tension in South-east Nigeria.

Mr Agbambu, the chief executive officer of Security Watch-Africa, stressed the need to reorient Mr Ekpa’s followers to prevent them from following his path.

“In the course of carrying out his criminal activities, Ekpa has been able to win some followers who now believe in violence.

“But arresting him is not enough without talking to those his followers to realise that violence and criminality are not the right way,” he said.

“They need to know that someone telling them when to step out to work is destroying their economy.”