When President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023, he promised to prioritise agricultural development and ensure food sufficiency.
Over 19 months later, Nigeria faces a hunger crisis aggravated by some of Mr Tinubu’s policies, especially the removal of fuel and currency subsidies, which has led to a significant rise in transportation and farm inputs costs. The prices of goods and services have increased across the country.
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Aside from insecurity disrupting farming in rural settlements in food-producing states, extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, have also made food production almost impossible for farmers in the country.
The high cost of food has eroded the purchasing power of many citizens whose incomes remain poor.
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In this sector review, PREMIUM TIMES highlights key issues that shaped Nigeria’s agricultural sector in 2024.
Climate Change
In recent years, the increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as changing rainfall patterns and delayed rainfall, has significantly affected crop yields, livestock productivity, and farmers’ livelihoods. Flood disasters recorded across major food-producing regions in the past three years hit farmers the hardest.
In 2024, Nigeria’s disaster management agency, NEMA, said floods killed over 303 people and affected over 1.2 million persons. The disaster also injured over 2,712 people, inundated over 1161,539 hectares of farmland, and completely damaged 106,000 hectares.
NEMA said 673,333 people were also displaced. Meanwhile, several communities in at least 201 local government areas in over 30 of Nigeria’s 36 states were also affected by floods.
High production costs, poultry farm shutdowns
Some of the policies, especially fuel subsidy removal, introduced by the Tinubu-led government made many Nigerian farmers struggle due to astronomical surges in the prices of major farm inputs and cost of production. This impacted farmers’ ability to invest in their farms, adopt new technologies, and expand their operations. It also forced some poultry farmers to stop operations due to unsustainable production costs.
Poor access to markets
Farmers faced difficulties in getting their products to market due to poor road networks, high cost of transportation and inadequate storage facilities, leading to a significant wastage of produce, especially tomatoes, onions and other vegetables. This situation eventually led to reduced incomes for farmers. A four-part investigation published by PREMIUM TIMES earlier this year revealed that large quantities of staple foods – including cereals, tubers, vegetables, and fruits produced in the country – are wasted due to inadequate storage, processing and transportation facilities.
Insecurity and Conflict
Insecurity in parts of Nigeria has disrupted agricultural activities, leading to crop losses, reduced productivity, and displaced farming communities.
Attacks on farmers and farming communities forced several farmers to reduce production or abandon their farms. The aftermath of this crisis has led to the shrinkage of cultivated lands across the country amidst increasing population and food demand.
Duty-free importation of beans, wheat, rice and others
In July, Nigeria’s Minister of Agriculture, Abubakar Kyari, confirmed that the federal government had suspended duties, tariffs, and taxes on the importation of major food items like beans, wheat, and husked brown rice in an ongoing effort to drive down food prices.
The minister said the time that the government would massively import some food items in addition to allowing the duty-free importation of food.
“The federal government will import 250,000 metric tons of wheat and 250,000 metric tons of maize. These semi-processed commodities will be supplied to small-scale processors and millers across the country,” he said.
Similarly, in September, the government flagged off the sale of subsidised rice across the country to cushion the impact of rising food costs it claimed to have been exacerbated by factors such as COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and climate change.
However, the impact of this move was negligible as the prices of food commodities remained high due to the massive depreciation of the naira against the dollar across the currency markets.
High input costs
Farmers struggled with high input costs, particularly fertiliser and seeds, which rose by almost 100 per cent within a year. A bag of fertiliser sold for about N20,000 the previous year rose sharply to about N46,000 last year. This further impacted farmers’ production capacity and profit margins and hindered investment in critical areas like technology and soil health.
Livestock ministry creation
During the year, Mr Tinubu created the livestock ministry to improve meat and dairy production and reduce conflict between migrant herders and farmers.
While some Nigerians, including APC national chairman Abdullahi Ganduje and the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria, lauded the ministry, saying it would allow the government to focus on livestock production and its associated benefits, critics argued that the move would further increase the size of government, which many argued was already bloated.
The Tinubu administration had said it would implement the Orosanye report, which called for a leaner government by scrapping some government institutions and merging others.
Projections
Given the plethora of problems undermining Nigeria’s agricultural sector, Azeez Salawu, the founder of Community Action for Food Security (CAFS), called for greater investment in agricultural infrastructure, including irrigation systems, storage facilities, and rural road networks, to reduce post-harvest losses and enhance farmers’ access to markets.
The food security expert said addressing high input costs through subsidies or innovative financing mechanisms can help smallholder farmers increase productivity.
He urged the government to promote climate-smart agricultural practices and enhance youth participation in various food systems value chains to drive sustainable growth and food and nutrition security in Nigeria.
For his part, Razaq Fatai, Vestance Head of Research and Advisory, said Nigeria’s agricultural sector will face a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities in 2025.
He noted that while the sector’s output growth is expected to lag behind national GDP growth due to climate shocks, high input costs, and insecurity, there are some positive developments.
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Mr Fatai said increased government actions to address insecurity and a push for state policing may gain momentum, with debates around constitutional amendments to allow states to establish their own police forces.
“Additionally, the government may extend the 180-day duty-tariff removal for selected agricultura commodities as Nigeria combats food inflation. However, the proposed 2025 Agricultural Budget at 1.3 per cent of the total budget remains far below the CAADP/Malabo commitment of 10 per cent, with inefficiencies and misallocations raising concerns,” he said.
With food production growth expected to be sub-optimal, Mr Fatai said food inflation will continue to exert upward pressure on overall inflation.
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