…every political argument meets its limits at some point. Narratives can be repeated, reframed and defended, but data has a way of enduring… Kwara’s numbers tell a story of contribution, participation and consistency from a region that remains outside the centre of power… The question is no longer whether this imbalance exists. It is whether it will continue and for how long it can be sustained without consequence.
For nearly three decades, one part of Kwara State has remained outside the governorship equation. The data is clear. The silence around it is not.
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There is a pattern in Kwara politics that many acknowledge in private but hesitate to confront in public.
As the 2027 governorship race approaches, conversations are again dominated by familiar talking points such as population size, political “structure,” and vague claims of competence. Yet, beneath these arguments lies a more uncomfortable reality: one senatorial district has remained consistently excluded from executive leadership, despite evidence of its central role in the state’s economy and electoral outcomes. This is not speculation. It is measurable.
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The Geography of Power Versus Geography of Land
Kwara Central is often presented as the political centre of gravity, accounting for 38 per cent of the state’s population. Kwara North and Kwara South follow with 32 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively.
But if population is the only metric that matters, then the rest of the state becomes politically invisible.
Kwara North occupies 75.34 per cent of the state’s landmass, more than three times the combined size of the other two districts. Baruten Local Government Area alone ranks among the largest in Nigeria. This is not just empty space; it is productive land, economic territory and strategic depth. Yet, politically, it remains on the margins of power.
The Economy Tells a Different Story
Strip away political rhetoric, and the numbers point in one direction.
Kwara North produces between 75 per cent and 80 per cent of the state’s agricultural output. It hosts 88.93 per cent of its 147,340.3 hectares of grazing reserves, supporting livestock production and cross-border trade.
In solid minerals, it accounts for about 80 per cent of mining activities, including lithium and gold deposits, resources increasingly critical to Nigeria’s economic future.
These are not peripheral contributions. They are the backbone of the state’s productive economy. Yet, since 1999, this same region has not produced a democratically elected governor.
Follow the Revenue
If contributions to the public purse were the basis for political influence, the current debate would be settled already.
Between 2003 and 2020, Kwara’s local government areas received over ₦332 billion in FAAC allocations. Kwara North accounted for 38.82 per cent, the highest share.
In 2015 alone, it generated 48.95 per cent of the total LGA revenue collections. Between 2018 and 2022, it contributed 38.09 per cent of ₦1.63 billion in internally generated revenues, outperforming both Kwara Central (33.01 per cent) and Kwara South (28.90 per cent).
The contradiction is difficult to ignore: a region that contributes the most is represented the least.
The Electoral Argument, and Its Weakness
One of the most repeated claims in Kwara politics is that electoral success is determined by population concentration. The data does not fully support this.
In 2019, Kwara North recorded a PVC collection rate of 92.02 per cent, the highest in the state, compared to 75.98 per cent in Kwara Central. This translated into a strong turnout and voting efficiency, contributing 31.06 per cent of APC votes in the presidential election, despite having fewer polling units.
By 2023, its share of registered voters rose from 27.44 per cent to 29.45 per cent, while statewide PVC collection increased to 90.60 per cent.
In the 2023 governorship election, Kwara North contributed 34.35 per cent of APC votes, second only to Kwara Central’s 38.58 per cent.
The implication is clear: influence is not just about numbers, it is about participation.
Loyalty Without Leverage
Perhaps the most politically sensitive question is this: What does loyalty translate into?
Between 2015 and 2023, Kwara North consistently delivered some of the highest vote margins for the APC. In 2019, the party secured 81.03 per cent of votes in the district. In 2023, even with an opposition candidate from the region, APC still received 67.77 per cent of the vote.
In most political systems, such consistency builds leverage. In Kwara, it appears to have produced something else: expectation without reward.
A Pattern, Not An Accident
Since 1999, Kwara Central has held the governorship for 19 years and will reach 20 years by 2027. Kwara South has governed for eight years. Kwara North has had none. This is not a coincidence. It is a pattern.
And like most entrenched patterns, it survives not because it is justified, but because it is rarely interrogated directly.
Instead, new arguments emerge each election cycle: strategic calculations, shifting alliances, or the ever-flexible definition of “competence.”
Do Voters Actually Follow these Narratives?
History suggests they do not. From 1992 to 2023, Kwarans have repeatedly voted across regional lines, often rejecting candidates from their own zones. Elections have been decided less by geography and more by political momentum, alliances and public sentiment.
This raises a critical point: the barriers to inclusion may not lie with voters, but with political gatekeeping.
2027: A Moment of Choice Or Continuity
The approaching transition presents a decision point.
Will Kwara’s political system continue along a familiar path, one in which contribution does not necessarily translate into representation? Or will it confront the imbalance that has quietly shaped its leadership structure for nearly three decades?
This is not simply about zoning or rotation. It is about whether a political system can align its outcomes with its own underlying realities.
The Question that Will Not Go Away
In conclusion, every political argument meets its limits at some point. Narratives can be repeated, reframed and defended, but data has a way of enduring.
Kwara’s numbers tell a story of contribution, participation and consistency from a region that remains outside the centre of power.
The question is no longer whether this imbalance exists. It is whether it will continue and for how long it can be sustained without consequence.
2027 will not just produce a governor. It will reveal whether Kwara’s politics is prepared to confront itself.
Musa Idris Buko is a public policy analyst, politician and governance advocate from Baruten Local Government Area of Kwara State.
