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“I forecast that by 29 May or earlier, the president will replace ministers, especially those who have since outlived their IOU value. As pressure mounts ahead of the pre-election year, no fewer than five of them will be replaced or reassigned by the end of 2025.” – What you might expect in 2025, 10 January, 2025
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This seventh edition of my special yearly forecast might be the last. I’ve enjoyed doing it – the hits and the misses – especially the big hits.
From twice forecasting that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would lose (2019 and 2023, he’ll lose again in 2027), months before the election, to predicting that at least five ministers would be fired in 2025 (seven were fired), nothing has given me greater pleasure than the Nostradamus-like thrill of watching a situation foretold unfolding.
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2026 will be a complex year as local and national politics clash with increasingly challenging economic realities, leaving citizens torn between their lived experiences and warmed-over promises from politicians.
Geopolitical contests between President Donald Trump’s America and Xi Jinping’s China, on the one hand, and between Trump and the rest of the world, on the other, will continue to leave traditional US allies and the world baffled.
Politics, global power contests against the backdrop of a world still in fragile recovery and fiercer resource competition, will go hand in hand with technological acceleration in defining the year. Those who already find it difficult to distinguish between content generated by fake generative artificial intelligence (AI) and the real thing will face compounded misery as AI evolves from one-size-fits-all to agentic models, which can think and act independently, as well as work collaboratively with humans.
Goodbye, android, welcome to the Year of the Humanoid!
Unrelenting Tensions
Economic tensions will not ease significantly. The tug-of-war between the conservative management of Nigeria’s monetary system on the one hand, and the pressure to lower interest rates and pursue a more robust fiscal policy on the other, will intensify this pre-election year.
Except President Bola Ahmed Tinubu takes early steps to quell the heightened rumours that the Ministry of Finance is a divided house at the highest level, it would be even more challenging to align monetary and fiscal policies, potentially undermining confidence.
Petrol pump price is another area of interest. The cost will likely be stable at around 850/litre, if two things happen: 1) oil production increases to up to 2m bpd, and NNPC is freed from some of its significant current forward crude pledges – the $3 billion crude swap with Afreximbank is due to expire in March, for example, and 2) global oil markets remain stable.
Extended Christmas Bonus
It would be an extended Christmas bonus, up to March, for consumers enjoying the price slash by the Dangote Refinery. NNPC-backed importers had massively imported petrol in November to hedge against the 15 percent duty earlier announced by the government for January, only to be outmanoeuvred by the Dangote Refinery. The tensions will benefit consumers.
Electricity supply will remain unstable, with one source indicating that the dilapidated transmission system, which requires a sustained annual investment of $500 million to revamp, will still experience multiple collapses this year. On the campaign trail or beforehand, President Tinubu is likely to announce private-sector involvement in electricity transmission through four main hubs, with Aliko Dangote, Barth Nnaji, Heirs Holdings, and Bua playing major roles.
2027 Coming Early
It’s 2026, but it feels like 2027. There are suggestions that the elections in Nigeria might happen earlier, in the last quarter of 2026. That’s unlikely.
With Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) gaining five sitting governors from the opposition through defection (one-third of the figure it won during the 2023 election), the opposition has been alleging a systematic creation of a one-party state. The truth is more nuanced. In a political system that relies heavily on patronage, 10 years out of office have left the opposition financially depleted and lacking ideas.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), after squandering its best chance yet to regain power in 2023 because of infighting, has dissolved into factions, the one controlled by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, not ready to challenge the ruling party for the presidency in 2027, while the other one has morphed into the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
ADC’s Strange Bedfellows
The Leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who is heading to the ADC, will face his second major political betrayal in a decade as the only NNPP Governor, Abba Kabiru Yusuf of Kano State, defects to join the APC.
ADC is a collection of strange bedfellows, comprising, among others, Atiku, former Rivers Governor Rotimi Amaechi, former Kaduna Governor Nasir-El-Rufai, and the former leader and presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi.
As campaigns begin this year, the ADC would once again promise to do what Napoleon could not do. At the primaries, because ADC is a party of the North prepared by the North for Atiku, he will defeat Obi for the party’s ticket, and later, offer him the position of running mate, to the displeasure of “Obidients.”
What Will Happen to ADC?
Obi, El-Rufai and Kwankwaso, but Obi in particular, will energise the campaign. However, here are three simple reasons ADC, if it stays together, is a party for 2031, not 2027. 1) The new coalition is still an elite fantasy, with minimal roots or visibility in the rural areas where the mass of voters are.
It’s improbable that it would take root in one year to the ballot or significantly dent the APC’s chances of reelection. 2) The opposition is unlikely to find the money required to fund a presidential election, estimated by some sources to be about $2 billion (over N1 trillion). With the current tighter monitoring of the financial system and the scrutiny of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on money bags, campaign funding, especially for the opposition, may prove more challenging than before.
And, of course, a bonus for the ruling party is the wave of defections, which has swept some of the most financially viable and electorally significant states to the ruling APC.
Why Governors’ Defections Will Matter
Governors don’t necessarily win elections, as we saw in 2023 when Obi’s Labour Party won in 12 states where the governors belonged to another party. But that was then. With states now receiving 62 per cent more from the Federation Account than they did in 2023, the ruling party has a more potent war chest than before. And the governors (not to mention a few multibillionaire businessmen and politicians in Tinubu’s corner) committed to the ruling party, now 29 out of 36, and still counting, will go for broke.
Yet, this same advantage, if it continues, will likely work against the APC towards the end of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second term, as it would weaken the ruling party and set the president against the governors in the battle for his successor.
For politicians and parties that barely survive losing one election, the real test for the ADC is not whether it will win in 2027, because it likely will not, but whether it can survive and prepare for the next election cycle.
World Cup. Who Wins?
The FIFA World Cup 2026 is in June. Argentina is the defending champion, but it is unlikely that they will successfully defend their title. Among the five top favourites – Spain, England, France, Brazil, and Argentina – I’ll tip Spain to win.
They’re not only the reigning European champions, but their consistency, cohesion, depth and tactical clarity put them a cut above the rest. My heart beats for Morocco, of course, semi-finalists in 2022, and Africa’s best hope in this tournament, but my money would be on Spain.
MAGA Misery
For the world, what Trump does or does not do and how, will continue to be a major concern. US domestic issues, including healthcare subsidies, immigration enforcement, and executive actions related to the trade tariffs, will continue to be critical flashpoints.
It would become more interesting in November, when the Democrats are likely to regain control of the House in the midterm elections. At that time, not only would Democrats start plotting to return to the White House in earnest, but Republicans who had been MAGA hostages would also try to set themselves free.
Trump and His Enemies
One good thing Trump has done for the world is to open its eyes to the options of a better, different world, despite America. The gold rally and increasing flight to other, less dollar-centric assets, and means of trade will likely accelerate even faster in 2026.
Trump will not fulfil the wish of his enemies by falling into a river full of crocodiles, as President Dwight Eisenhower wished for Patrice Lumumba. But there’ll be no shortage of those happy to push him over the river’s edge if he gets close!
Azu Ishiekwene is Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP and author of the new book, A Midlifer’s Guide to Content Creation and Profit.
