The 2027 elections will surely expose the decaying and moribund lumpen democracy in the country. But they will also expose the ever-increasing contradictions and antagonisms within the dominant forces, and between the latter and the popular masses.
Nigeria’s forthcoming 2027 general elections is some twenty months away. The major political parties: the All Progressives Congress (APC), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP), are merely platforms for contesting elections, not ideologically grounded parties. But the people are fatigued with their rhetorics, propaganda, and deception.
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Yet, the masses interestingly look forward to the 2027 elections. They are interested not so much in the parties or the presidential aspirants, but in their survival as human beings; the security to live, move, and work freely; and the protection of their ethnic identities.
The PDP might not pay much attention to the presidential election. But it will produce a candidate, mainly to register its presence in the election. Its candidate will not shine. The party will indirectly support the ADC, APC or LP candidate. Even so, its gladiators, activists, and followers will be divided, not unanimous, on which candidate to support.
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But should former President Goodluck Jonathan decide to contest under the PDP, the chances of him winning the presidential election is high for five major reasons.
First, his simplicity, gentility, fairness to all, even at the expense of his ethnic group and zone, will count favourably for him. Besides, he is not a desperado – a do-or-die politician like late General Muhammadu Buhari, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi.
Second, compared to General Olusegun Obasanjo, Buhari and Tinubu, Jonathan is widely and generally seen as saintly, a good manager of the economy, a man of the people, with the people in his heart, and a highly considerate person who is fair and just, not an ethnic bigot, religious zealot, regional hypocrite or political desperado.
Third, is the popular perception that Jonathan’s administration was unjustly and unfairly fought by the parochial and degenerate elements in APC and PDP and some Western powers, including the United States. Yes, people will say he was successfully voted out, but the fact is that he willingly, without much ado, handed over power to Buhari, and avoided the bloodshed Buhari and his hardcore supporters wanted.
But what are the results of throwing Jonathan out? Gross devaluation of the naira. Steep increases in the cost of petroleum products and electricity. A runaway inflation. High insecurity, poverty, hunger, suffering, misery, diseases, out-of-school children, and avoidable pains.
Fourth, the insecurity, terrorism, banditry, genocide, infanticide, cannibalism, kidnapping for huge ransom, destruction of farms, raping of women, sacking of villages, seizure and renaming of villages, and various crimes against humanity mainly perpetuated by Fulani terrorists, will count in Jonathan’s favour.
Fifth, Jonathan will receive huge support in the North-West and Middle-Belt zones, because, as president, he did not trigger, justify, support, increase, or promote criminalities, terrorism, genocide, and crimes against humanity.
But should Jonathan not contest, then, Tinubu may continue to 2031. People will miserably and painfully vote for him on the basis that the devil you know is better than characters who you cannot exorcise their bigotry, cannot trust, are incurably deceptive, and extremely desperate.
The Hausa masses will propagate that Jonathan constructed over five hundred Almajiri schools, which were destroyed during Buhari’s administration by people who parade themselves as “Arewa leaders”! They will also propagate that he fought Boko Haram to the best of his ability, but was betrayed by his trusted lieutenants, friends, and politicians from the same North.
But should Jonathan choose a Hausa politician, who has no solid ties with his people, and who is considered a puppet of the Fulani oligarchs, which encompasses politicians, traditional rulers, and clerics, amongst others, he will face mass rejection from the politically dormant but increasingly awakening Hausa majority. Also, lots of Middle-Belters will take to political cynicism, apathy, and inertia.
But should Jonathan not contest, then, Tinubu may continue to 2031. People will miserably and painfully vote for him on the basis that the devil you know is better than characters who you cannot exorcise their bigotry, cannot trust, are incurably deceptive, and extremely desperate.
Tinubu will win if he retains Kashim Shettima as his vice president. If, however, he makes a change, it has to be somebody like Borno State governor, Babangida Zulum. However, it is highly unlikely Zulum will accept such an offer, unless Shettima pressurises him to do so.
However, should Tinubu replace Shettima with Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP, he will be deserted in the North. Hausas and Middle-Belters will point out that Kwankwaso never vehemently criticised the raging terrorism and genocide in the North-West and Middle-Belt. Therefore, he is in support of it.
Also, Southern people are already propagating that the North-West has over-asserted its presence in the highest offices of the federation. So, they must be made to give way to others.
Kwankwaso, therefore, will not be of much electoral value for Tinubu. Kano State will be highly contested. NNPP might still retain Kano, but with a narrow margin. However, if an independent-minded Hausa person runs for the governorship, the chances of NNPP winning will be extremely low.
Also, Tinubu bringing down the cost of living, especially foodstuff, enhancing the value of the naira, reducing the cost of petroleum products, and giving handouts to the masses, will boost his chances. I foresee him opening the land borders for massive food importation. This will count favourably for him. After all, the high cost of foodstuffs is the major issue used by his Northern opponents to vilify him.
Should Jonathan contest, Obi will be relegated to the background. Should Abubakar Atiku emerge as the ADC candidate, Hausas, Middle-Belters, and the people in the South would rather off-load their votes than risk Atiku giving Tinubu problems.
Atiku does not stand much chance of winning the presidential election. Basically, most Nigerians believe in, stand for, and are willing to ensure the unwritten zoning formula of North-South is respected and upheld. So, let the 2027 election be amongst Southern presidential candidates. If this were to be the case and, Jonathan does not contest, then the primary contest will be between Tinubu and Obi.
Atiku does not stand much chance of winning the presidential election. Basically, most Nigerians believe in, stand for, and are willing to ensure the unwritten zoning formula of North-South is respected and upheld. So, let the 2027 election be amongst Southern presidential candidates. If this were to be the case and, Jonathan does not contest, then the primary contest will be between Tinubu and Obi.
But, should Atiku insist on contesting, his Fulani ethnic background will negatively count against him.
First, most Nigerians widely believe that the Fulani have dominated the Nigerian political scene since independence. This has seen them produce two military Heads of State, two civilian presidents, and directly or indirectly installed and controlled a Prime Minister and five other military leaders. So let them give others a chance.
Second the activities of Fulani terrorists have generated popular dissatisfaction, distrust, and dislike for the Fulani people. Given their experience with Buhari, majority of non-Fulani people are not ready to risk having another Fulani in power so soon.
Third, the quietness, non-condemnation, and rationalisation of terrorism by the Fulani oligarchs create the impression that they are tacitly continuing the expansionism of Usmanu Dan Fodiyo, and trying to take over Nigeria and settle Fulanis from all over West and Central Africa in it.
Fourth, the increasing grounding of radical Hausa nationalism and irredentism, led by Hajiya Kaltum Alumbe Jitami, is tremendously promoting Hausa identity, confidence, and unity. She is politically awakening Hausas; ideologically radicalising them; and religiously, politically and culturally distancing them from the Fulanis.
Jitami’s propagation that, while our common humanity matters, our ethnic identities supersede and override our religious and regional togetherness, is shattering the regional – “Arewa” – identity; and blasting the formidable religious identities that had been used to politically dis-unite, and handover people to their preferred politicians.
Jitami’s conscientisation is progressively uniting Hausa and Middle-Belters. All are presently airing and asserting their indigenous identities and rendering the religious and regional cloak that had hitherto camouflaged the Fulani agenda.
The 2027 elections will surely expose the decaying and moribund lumpen democracy in the country. But they will also expose the ever-increasing contradictions and antagonisms within the dominant forces, and between the latter and the popular masses.
Ahmed Aminu-Ramatu Yusuf worked as deputy director, Cabinet Affairs Office, The Presidency, and retired as General Manager (Administration), Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NiMet). Email: [email protected]
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