These unfolding scenarios deserve some careful introspection. I believe that the Progressive Governors are neither lazy nor collectively fraudulent. They are probably responding to the complicated political realities in their states, worsened by the grassroots discontent with the Tinubu administration. Perhaps Wike is also right to insist on his Rainbow Coalition, while refusing to join the All Progressives Congress (APC) fully.
The public outburst of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, has elicited diverse reactions across the country. Many have described it as distasteful. However, the exchange revealed several politically charged issues that warrant close attention. Both Governor Hope Uzodimma and Minister Wike are playing key roles in the South for the President, but they are clearly not aligned. For the second time in one week, the Minister publicly confirmed a conflict that many commentators suggest could be the biggest centrifugal force in President Tinubu’s re-election machinery. He has also sounded an alarm bell that the dramatised support of more than thirty governors for President Tinubu could be hollow – and as such may not automatically translate to the expected significant number of votes on the ground. If Wike is correct about such speculation, then those within the President’s inner political circle should be worried.
Governors and the Politics of Survival
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The removal of fuel subsidy dug a hole in the pockets of poor people across the country. The discontent and impoverishment experienced among ordinary people are palpable on the streets. The northern part of the country is reportedly impacted disproportionately by the poverty situation. Many of the governors are sensitive to this reality. Those seeking re-election must work hard to show they align with popular sentiment if they want to win. The ruling All Progressives Congress deliberately went around to conscript these governors into their fold to shore up support for the President. Many of them are keen on fulfilling their promise to support the President. However, the spreading anti-Tinubu sentiment across the North is making them jittery and cautious. They want to associate with President Tinubu while avoiding any potential backlash. That is a tough and complex path to navigate.
Wike’s Defence of the Rainbow Coalition
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This is another interesting dimension to the ongoing feud. The Minister insists he wants to support the President while remaining outside the party. It will be naïve to dismiss the coalition, especially when political figures like former Senate President Bukola Saraki are said to be working with him. Back in his state, the lines between the ruling party and the Minister’s own party – the People’s Democratic Party – remain blurred. Yet the Minister’s political posture remains suggestive. Despite the benefits he has received under President Tinubu, he does not seem to trust the ruling party enough to entrust his political future to them. Despite his public denials, Wike knows that, in reality, it will be difficult to garner votes for President Tinubu in the South-South and South-East with both Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi on the ballot. The Minister has already announced that he wants to win only Rivers and Bayelsa states for the President.
The political atmosphere across the country is quite hazy and becoming more hostile as the days go by. Caution will help, and pragmatic steps are imperative. If the on-going turbulence in the ruling party continues, then it is fair for partners like Wike to keep their options open. Governors know that to remain in office, they have no choice but to align with the pulse from home. No one should blame them. It is called political survival.
Choice of Presidential Running Mate Still Haunting the Ruling Party
The choice of President Tinubu’s running mate remains a factor that refuses to go away. Vice President Kashim Shetima is a great politician. However, the Muslim-Muslim ticket that produced him stirred a lot of controversy, especially among Christians. Some governors were reportedly disappointed that one of them was not chosen as running mate. To an extent, it succeeded, but many Muslims are still complaining that it was a mere symbolic inclusion, while they still remain excluded from relevant appointments in government. Furthermore, subtle ethnic divisions within the North have begun to widen around that choice. For instance, the current Vice President comes from the Kanuri ethnic nationality, with an estimated population of about six to eight million persons, predominantly in Borno and Yobe states. By appointing him, Hausas and Fulanis – two large and historically distinct tribes often grouped as Hausa-Fulani, with an estimated population of 46-70 million persons, feel left out. This lingering feeling could affect the ruling party’s fortunes in the North
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These unfolding scenarios deserve some careful introspection. I believe that the Progressive Governors are neither lazy nor collectively fraudulent. They are probably responding to the complicated political realities in their states, worsened by the grassroots discontent with the Tinubu administration. Perhaps Wike is also right to insist on his Rainbow Coalition, while refusing to join the All Progressives Congress (APC) fully. The political atmosphere across the country is quite hazy and becoming more hostile as the days go by. Caution will help, and pragmatic steps are imperative. If the on-going turbulence in the ruling party continues, then it is fair for partners like Wike to keep their options open. Governors know that to remain in office, they have no choice but to align with the pulse from home. No one should blame them. It is called political survival.
Uche Igwe is a political economy analyst and can be reached via [email protected]
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