First, we must agree on a set of standard operating procedures (SoPs) that must be followed by DisCos to guarantee the up time promised against each tariff band imposed. Second, we must agree on a grievance reporting mechanism to be used if and/or when the SoPs are not followed. Third, we are putting the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) on notice that we will expect them to act as our Ombudsman…
The myth goes that if you put a frog in a beaker of water and heat it up ever so gradually, with no sharp rises in temperature, because reptiles adapt to the temperature of their surroundings, the frog would adapt rather than jump out. This will continue even though the temperature rises, until the frog is eventually too weak and allows itself to be boiled alive. The essence of the boiled frog syndrome, according to Dr. Prada, is that “…when our living conditions deteriorate gradually, we adapt to these conditions instead of getting rid of them, until we are no longer strong enough to escape.” Power outages have crept up on us as Nigerians and we have consistently adjusted ourselves to the situation and tolerated the condition, but will this price hike now boil us alive?
The Boiled Frog Syndrome also reminds me of Martin Niemöller (1892-1984), who was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany. At first (1920s and early 1930s), he was not initially against Nazi ideas and right-wing political movements. However, after Hitler came to power in 1933, Niemöller spoke out against the impact of the Nazi policies on the Protestant Church. He soon ended up in Nazi prisons and concentration camps from 1937 to 1945. He was the one who said, “First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me and there was no one left to speak for me.”
At the start of these outages in the late 1950s and through the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, our forebears said, thank God at least we can afford candles and kerosine lanterns; they adapted and did not speak up for those who could not afford even those basic energy sources. Today, Nigerians are high consumers of candles and, according to statista.com, “the candle market in Nigeria is experiencing a surge in demand due to the country’s frequent power outages.” In 2024 we will spend N237.25 billion (US$189.8 million) in the candles market segment, which “is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 2.33% (CAGR 2024-2028).”
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The trend continued and worsened in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s, and generators became a status symbol that separated the haves from the have-nots. We said nothing, because somehow we adjusted and bought kerosene, petrol, and diesel-fuelled generators, rather than reject what was becoming our new normal. A recent report suggests almost 47 per cent of urban Nigerians and over 27 per cent of rural Nigerians rely on generators for their electricity.
The price hike in the electricity tariff from N68/kWh to N225/kWh, effective immediately, is another sharp rise in the water temperature; are we no longer strong enough to escape? Will we be boiled alive like the proverbial frog? As we can see, “I beta pass my neighbour” is not just a name for a certain size of generator favoured by small businesses, it is also a mantra that describes the mindset of the boiled frog: “so long as I can find a way to adjust and survive, even if just in the short-term, I am fine…at least I am doing better than my neighbour.”
These dirty energy sources have left us with severe health and safety hazards. We are reminded of the greenhouse gases emitted and the permanent damage we are doing to the planet. The effects of climate change are no longer deniable as we have all suffered the sustained heatwave in most parts of Nigeria so far in 2024 and the delays to the onset of the rains. These heavy and weighty matters are for another day, but I must draw our attention to how we have tolerated the gradual deterioration in our living standards for decades spanning the Electricity Company of Nigeria (ECN), Nigeria Electric Power Authority (NEPA), and the eventual unbundling of the utility into GenCos, a TransysCo and DisCos.
When in 2022, diesel costs rose sharply from about N280/litre to over N890/litre, the cost of switching from fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable sources like solar, with storage in lead-acid batteries, started to appear accessible. Quietly, we began to jump out of the beaker to install solar panels and inverters to escape being ‘boiled alive’. Now in the mid-2020s, we have become sophisticated users of green energy, solar-powered inverters, and a range of energy store-and-release devices which we thank God that we can afford, and we have refused to speak up for the downtrodden, the poor and the needy. Why? Because “I beta pass my neighbour.”
Having said that, we have still retained electricity from the national grid and our generators as backup sources to recharge our inverters, whenever the energy outage needs exceed what we can replace from our stored energy sources. We thought we jumped out of the beaker, but soon realised that we needed to move to lithium battery storage and lots of it to enjoy the same mod cons we could with electricity from the national grid. We were forced to continue paying the high diesel costs and using expensive energy to recharge but we are adjusting. All we have done is jump “from frying pan to fire” adapting to the conditions without getting rid of them.
The price hike in the electricity tariff from N68/kWh to N225/kWh, effective immediately, is another sharp rise in the water temperature; are we no longer strong enough to escape? Will we be boiled alive like the proverbial frog? As we can see, “I beta pass my neighbour” is not just a name for a certain size of generator favoured by small businesses, it is also a mantra that describes the mindset of the boiled frog: “so long as I can find a way to adjust and survive, even if just in the short-term, I am fine…at least I am doing better than my neighbour.” Herein lies the insidious and devastating serum that lulls the frogs into a state of coma, instead of infusing them with a sharp sense of urgency. This is the time for a new ethos, it is the time for us all to say, “I am my neighbour, and my neighbour is me.”
“I am my neighbour, and my neighbour is me,” means we should be willing to share information, work with each other and report so that we evolve this into an integrity movement to demand accountability from the DisCos. The fifth and final step is to use the data and evidence collected to promote risk-based interventions in collaboration with the FCCPC and regulators in the power sector to get redress for Nigerians.
Has anyone conducted a study on what small businesses pay to access energy in Nigeria versus their counterparts in the rest of Africa? Do we know how much outage and down time they each must suffer compared with us in Nigeria? It is time our policy advocates took up the challenge to put facts and figures together for a campaign. It is time to get rid of this condition, for us and for our neighbours, before we totally lose all strength to act!
Twenty hours plus at N225/kWh is expensive but if that means dependable electricity, it could be a solution. According to a resident of one of the Housing Estates in Lekki, Lagos that opted to pay a higher tariff in exchange for guaranteed 20 hours plus of power, “they’ve promised 20h+ since they put us on Band A and what we got was dependable excuses and blame trading for performance below par. Why should this N225/kWh announcement be different from what we have experienced? Nothing has been mentioned in the publications so far.” So, without a clear call-to-action, it will be the same water, the same frogs, only that the temperature will be increased to 225° from 68° in the same bath.
First, we must agree on a set of standard operating procedures (SoPs) that must be followed by DisCos to guarantee the up time promised against each tariff band imposed. Second, we must agree on a grievance reporting mechanism to be used if and/or when the SoPs are not followed. Third, we are putting the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) on notice that we will expect them to act as our Ombudsman in a timely and effective manner to get us redress from these DisCos (including on compensation and, where necessary, consequences for not living by the agreed SoPs). Fourthly we must gather our independent data and evidence around outages and breaches of the SoPs so that the impact of the high tariffs on our lives and livelihoods is reliably documented. “I am my neighbour, and my neighbour is me,” means we should be willing to share information, work with each other and report so that we evolve this into an integrity movement to demand accountability from the DisCos. The fifth and final step is to use the data and evidence collected to promote risk-based interventions in collaboration with the FCCPC and regulators in the power sector to get redress for Nigerians.
As a famous Area Father once put it, “Our mumu don do!”
Soji Apampa is co-founder, The Integrity Organisation; email: soji.apampa@integritynigeria.org
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