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The House of Representatives has passed the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP), following extensive deliberations on key economic assumptions and fiscal projections.
The reports were presented by the Chairman of the Joint Committees on Finance and National Planning and Economic Development, James Faleke, during Thursday’s plenary.
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Shortly after the presentation, the House dissolved into the Committee of Supply to examine the committees’ findings and recommendations in detail.
After a thorough review, the House approved the projected crude oil benchmark prices of US$64.85, US$64.30 and US$65.50 per barrel for 2026, 2027 and 2028 respectively, alongside domestic crude oil production projections of 1.84 million barrels per day for 2026, 1.88 mbpd for 2027, and 1.92 mbpd for 2028.
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The House also sustained the projected exchange rates of ₦1,512, ₦1,432.15, and ₦1,383.18 over the three-year period in line with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s policy to stabilise the naira and ensure effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.
Inflation rate projections of 16.5 per cent, 13 per cent, and nine per cent for 2026, 2027 and 2028 were endorsed, while real GDP growth projections of 4.68 per cent, 5.96 per cent and 7.9 per cent were maintained, reflecting expectations for economic expansion driven by ongoing reforms and the implementation of new tax laws.
The House also emphasised the effective implementation of the new Tax Acts as instruments for economic reform, recommending the introduction of a National Scanning Policy within the National Single Window of the Nigeria Revenue Services (NRS).
This policy, implemented in collaboration with relevant agencies, is expected to enhance revenue assurance, reduce leakages, improve trade facilitation, and strengthen transparency and national security.
In approving the framework for revenue and expenditure, the House endorsed the proposed 2026 federal government budget, which stands at ₦54.46 trillion, of which ₦31.83 trillion is projected as retained revenue.
New borrowings, both domestic and foreign, are projected at ₦20.38 trillion, with debt service estimated at ₦15.52 trillion.
Pensions, gratuities and retirees’ benefits are pegged at ₦1.376 trillion, while the fiscal deficit is projected at ₦22.63 trillion.
Capital expenditure, exclusive of transfers, is projected at ₦20.131 trillion, statutory transfers at ₦3.152 trillion, and a sinking fund at ₦388.54 billion. Total recurrent (non-debt) expenditure is estimated at ₦15.265 trillion, with special interventions for recurrent and capital pegged at ₦200 billion and ₦14 billion respectively.
The approval comes after the report was temporarily stepped down on Wednesday due to disagreements over proposed adjustments to crude oil benchmarks and production volumes.
The committees had initially recommended reviewing the crude oil benchmark prices downward to US$60 per barrel for 2026, US$65 for 2027, and US$70 for 2028, citing geopolitical tensions and global oil price volatility.
Speaker Abbas Tajudeen had questioned the implications of reducing both benchmark prices and production assumptions, highlighting the potential revenue shortfall and the need to identify how it would be addressed.
Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu also sought clarification on internally generated revenue outside the oil and gas sector to bridge any projected gaps.
Following the extensive debate, the House adopted a motion by Mr Faleke to step down the reports for further refinement before resubmitting them.
The joint committees subsequently finalised the recommendations and returned to the House with the approved framework, paving the way for the next stage in the budget process.
President Bola Tinubu transmitted the 2026–2028 MTEF and FSP to the House last Wednesday, initiating the legislative review process ahead of the 2026 budget.
The documents were subsequently referred to the joint committees on Finance and National Planning and Economic Development for analysis, including public hearings with the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, and the Minister of Budget and National Planning.
The 2026 budget
The MTEF/FSP sets the stage for the 2026 budget by providing a structured forecast of the nation’s revenue and expenditure framework, helping lawmakers and policymakers determine borrowing needs, capital allocations, and fiscal priorities.
President Tinubu is now scheduled to present the 2026 budget on Friday, at a joint session of the National Assembly, formally translating the MTEF/ FSP framework into the annual appropriation bill.
The presentation is expected to outline sectoral allocations, borrowing plans, and development priorities for the next fiscal year, in line with the assumptions approved by the House.
The MTEF serves as the government’s key fiscal planning documents. It provides a three-year projection of government revenue, expenditure, and borrowing, offering a framework for sustainable fiscal policy and economic growth.
The FSP, on the other hand, outlines the strategies and policies that guide budget preparation, including targets for inflation, GDP growth, exchange rates, and sectoral allocations.
Together, the documents guide the annual budget by aligning revenue projections with planned spending and development priorities.
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