ANALYSIS: Can new ECOWAS leadership revive/sustain bloc?

With seven heads of state in attendance, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Sunday, 22 June, held its 67th summit of the Authority of the Heads of State and Government, ushering in a new leadership.

After serving two tenures as leader of the ECOWAS Authority, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu handed over to President Julius Bio of Sierra Leone.

In the last five years, since 2020, the bloc has faced persistent challenges and questioning of its legitimacy, especially with some member states experiencing military coups in what some have referred to as the dying of democracy in the region. Although 2020 saw the beginning of a consistent trend, 2023 marked a significant shift when the military in Niger toppled the elected government.

ECOWAS has always used sanctions to maintain peace and order within the community; however, the sanctions on Niger were perceived to be the harshest so far, with borders to the country closed and electricity cut. There was also a threat of military invasion to restore the toppled government.

The threat to use force appeared to have angered many and elicited solidarity from other states that had similar coup stories – Mali and Burkina Faso. Some analysts described the threat of military intervention as reckless, especially as it gave room for disinformation and endangered relationships across the board, especially between Nigeria and Niger, which enjoyed cordial relations.

The events in Niger would become the highlight of President Tinubu’s time as head of ECOWAS Authority, especially the announcement of Niger’s withdrawal from the bloc alongside Mali and Burkina Faso. This was the first time since the establishment of the bloc in 1975 that it would witness such a rupture.

The withdrawal tampered with the very essence of the bloc: integration, community, security and economic integration. It also sets a bad precedent that questions ECOWAS’ principles on democracy, good governance, and dialogue.

While ECOWAS faces the challenge of keeping and restoring democracy, its new leader, President Bio of Sierra Leone, has outlined his priorities.

Wasting no time after the 67th Summit in Abuja, he took to X on Monday, 23 June, to outline his priorities as the chair of the ECOWAS Authority.

“As Chair of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of @ecowas_cedeao, I will prioritise four key Areas: First, Restoring Constitutional Order and Deepening Democracy. Second, Revitalising Regional Security Cooperation. Third, Unlocking Economic Integration. Fourth, Building Institutional Credibility,” he wrote on X.

The words of Mr Bio are those of one who is aware of the realities of the bloc; however, what remains to be seen is how many of these priorities will be achieved, given the challenges that continue to confront ECOWAS.

Restoring Constitutional Order and Deepening Democracy

In the last five years, there have been a series of coups and counter-coups on the African continent, with most of them being in West Africa. The cases of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali remain huge concerns even as they have exited the bloc.

Mr Bio recognises this as a major challenge, thereby making it one of his priorities. However, will the Sierra Leonean President make any inroads on this?

Paul Melly, a consulting fellow at Chatham House, opines that restoring adherence to democratic constitutional rules and negotiating with the putschist regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger is one task that Mr Bio is qualified to address, having taken part in military coups but then voluntarily relinquished power, handing over to a new elected president in 1996 and departing for civilian life.

He waited until 2012 to enter electoral politics, and after being defeated in that presidential race, he had to wait until 2018 to stand again and finally secure victory.

“So he has shown how a soldier can give up power and accept the tough rules of the democratic game,” Mr Melly noted.

Mr Bio has promised that he will not seek a third term – an important example in a region where some civilian leaders have changed the rules to escape term limits and maintain power — a pattern that has undermined popular trust in electoral democracy.

Even though Sierra Leone faces big internal challenges and criticism of governance standards, Mr Melly believes Mr Bio sets a strong example.

Revitalising Regional Security Cooperation

Following the strained relationships in the region, there have been heightened security concerns and incidents of insecurity, including the resurgence of Lakurawa, an armed group affiliated with the Islamic State Sahel Province operating in Mali, Niger, and parts of Nigeria..

Confidence McHarry, a senior analyst at SBM Intelligence, believes that Mr Bio’s ability to revitalise regional security cooperation could go both ways.

“He leads a country that has suffered instability for decades, and that experience in managing such complexity gives him an advantage to coordinate issues in a region facing soaring levels of instability,” he said, adding that the real task will be in managing security cooperation between ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel State (AES), and navigating the external geopolitical influence from foreign actors that ECOWAS has long decried.

In the same vein, Mr Melly notes that developing cooperation between ECOWAS and AES may prove difficult. However, seeing that Mr Bio was not at the forefront of the ‘confrontation’ like Mr Tinubu of Nigeria or Mr Ouattara of Côte d’Ivoire, he may be able to secure goodwill from the AES in a way that others may not.

Unlocking Economic Integration

According to Mr McHarry, regional economic integration has not been achieved in a way that improves trade and develops the economies in the community. This lack of cohesive regional integration within ECOWAS limits its ability to capitalise on economies of scale and foster sustainable growth.

“Thus, while ECOWAS possesses significant potential, its over-reliance on a single volatile commodity (Nigeria’s crude), uneven human development progress, and weaker integration mechanisms have placed it behind in achieving tangible regional progress,” he said.

Mr McHarry added that while ECOWAS has focused on trade liberalisation and free movement, implementation has been inconsistent and hampered by diverse economic structures and political will. Leaders in the region are more focused on national wins than on collective wins. With a collective GDP exceeding $628 billion and a population of over 350 million, ECOWAS can become a leading economic powerhouse in Africa, he said.

“Intra-regional trade within ECOWAS remains strikingly underdeveloped, representing a meagre 10 per cent of the bloc’s total trade activity and a negligible 0.3 per cent share of global commerce. This limited internal exchange impedes deeper economic integration. It diminishes ECOWAS’s influence within the global economy and domestically.”

Building Institutional Credibility

To achieve institutional credibility, which has plagued the bloc over the years, will be difficult, especially with some of its leaders engaging in anti-democratic actions that many have described as constitutional coups.

Mr McHarry argues that the drag for Mr Bio is in his legitimacy. “The circumstances by which he won his current term echo a lot of the anti-democratic actions by civilian leaders that have critically undermined the bloc’s democratic and institutional ideals.”

Mr Bio’s work is cut out for him as the required actions have to begin from within the Authority itself. For example, Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara, who is 83, has announced his intentions to run for a fourth term, which has been denounced by many within and outside the country.

Another spoke in the wheel is the conduct of elections in the region, the question of free and fair elections and the challenges of election cycles that reflect the will of the people.