Jumping Ship: Nigeria’s opposition parties face existential crisis

The mass defection of politicians from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has raised debates about the integrity of Nigeria’s political institutions and parties.

In the nearly two years since the 2023 general elections, the APC has either infiltrated or dominated opposition strongholds.

Nigeria’s democratic system thrives on a vibrant and functional opposition, like other liberal democracies. However, opposition political parties in the country are buffeted by intra-party wrangling, which takes the wind out of their sails.

Activists and observers said the absence of a strong opposition has left Nigeria’s democracy vulnerable to unchecked executive power, resulting in governance that often lacks accountability.

Recently, the governor of Akwa Ibom State, Umo Eno, a member of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), publicly declared support for the reelection of President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

In parables, Mr Eno also hinted about de-boarding from ‘a faulty aircraft’ to enter ‘a different plane’ in the coming days.

Just before those remarks, Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori defected with all the state’s structures of the PDP to the APC in late April, abruptly severing control the main opposition party held on the oil-rich South-south state for 26 years. There are reports of other PDP governors plotting the same move.

Mr Oborevwori’s predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, who was the PDP vice presidential candidate to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 general elections, joined in the mass defection.

Mr Oborevwori said his decision to join the APC was based on the ‘love’ President Bola Tinubu “has shown to us in Delta State.” He believed that “presidential love” requires wholesale electoral support from the state in 2027.

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“This is a movement, this is not a defection; we (governors) have agreed we will move together, and when we move together, what is at the national level we will be able to grab it,” he said.

His remarks affirmed the speculation that more opposition parties had agreed to switch to the ruling party,

At the National Assembly, several lawmakers have also dumped their parties to expand the majority of the APC.

One-party state

A group of Nigerian activists said the wave of defections suggests a drift towards a one-party state and authoritarianism.

The group alleged a “calculated and systematic” effort by the administration of President Tinubu to dismantle the “democratic foundations of our republic and reduce Nigeria to a one-party state through bribery, blackmail, and coercion.”

The presidency, however, dismissed the allegation as “baseless and exaggerated.”

The Nigerian political opposition is fragmented and largely ineffective. Entrapped in this maelstrom are the PDP and the Labour Party (LP), which rattled the APC in the 2023 presidential election. The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) has also joined the mix.

Fights for control of these parties have torn them into factions. As such, their leaderships are preoccupied with how to survive, neglecting their role of putting the APC-led government on its toes as the opposition, through constructive criticisms and alternative policies.

The PDP, once Nigeria’s dominant political force, faces internal divisions, sabotage and ineffective leadership. Under the current acting chairman, Umar Damagum, the party is crisis-riven and factionalised, with many state chapters disunited. One faction is under the influence of Nyesom Wike, a former PDP governor of Rivers State now serving in the APC-led federal government as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The other is on the side of its presidential candidate in 2023, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Another faction is said to be loyal to the Governor of Bauchi State, Bala Mohammed.

Some analysts described the PDP as an extension of the APC, unable to mobilise effectively against the ruling party’s policies. The defections by key PDP figures have weakened its national standing and influence.

When Ned Nwoko, the senator representing Delta North, defected to the APC in January, he cited “deep divisions and internal strife” at the state and national levels as his reasons for leaving the PDP.

The LP, which garnered significant support from young and urban voters, is also struggling with internal disputes, legal battles, and power wrangling.

Similarly, the NNPP faces significant internal crises in Kano, the only state it runs, and at the national level. Kawu Sumaila, the Kano South senator, resigned from the NNPP and joined the APC in April. Other NNPP lawmakers are expected to follow suit in the coming days.

Analysts said the absence of institutional structures and the prevalence of patronage politics weakened these parties, making them ineffective in consolidating opposition forces.

There is also widespread suspicion that APC uses state resources to induce opposition leaders or coerce their government officials with threats of corruption prosecution, allegations that the ruling party has consistently denied.

“Some opposition figures are believed to have been compromised, leading to a lack of trust in their leadership,” said political expert Dakuku Peterside. “When opposition leaders are seen as moles or agents of the party in power, it undermines their ability to present a serious challenge to the ruling party.”

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“The opposition space in Nigeria has remained fractured, allowing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to operate with little or no alternative voices and cruising as the political Octopus. APC has effectively established itself as the dominant political force, often unchallenged in policymaking and governance. The failure of opposition parties to unite under a common goal has further entrenched APC’s political control, making governance almost a one-party affair,” Mr Peterside said.

Meanwhile, in its use of patronage and coercion, the APC is only repeating what the PDP did in the past. In 1999, the PDP won the presidency, 241 of the 360 seats in the House of Representatives, 71 of the 109 senatorial seats, and its members were elected governors in 21 of the 36 states.

Four years later, with politicians from other parties trooping in for their slices of the federal pie, PDP won the governorship elections in 28 of the 36 states and took 76 senatorial seats. Now the tide has turned. It is uncertain how many of the 11 governors it produced two years ago remain committed to the PDP.

Mr Peterside said opposition parties have failed to articulate distinct policy alternatives, leaving governance unchallenged and unresponsive to citizens’ needs. “An effective opposition serves as a watchdog, providing checks and balances to the ruling party while offering alternative policies that enhance governance.”

“Without meaningful policy debates, decisions are made that lack depth, often without proper scrutiny or public engagement. For example, when President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidy in 2023, opposition parties failed to present an alternative plan, leaving civil society groups to lead protests against the consequential economic hardship,” Mr Peterside said.