Israel, Iran and the United States’ (US) escalating hostilities have sent geopolitical tremors far beyond the Middle East.
With the fragile ceasefire holding for now, the world waits tensely to see if broader regional or global conflict will erupt.
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For African policymakers, three critical vectors demand close scrutiny – security, diplomatic and economic. Each carries risks that may have outsized effects on the continent.
Security concerns
The first danger lies in the security sphere. The conflict risks drawing multiple global powers – Russia, China, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) – into yet another Middle Eastern quagmire.
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Historically, when the great powers collide, Africa often becomes an unintended theatre of competition and collateral.
The scars of the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are still apparent in the myriad economic, diplomatic and security shocks.
There is a worrying sense of déjà vu in the current situation.
If global tensions spill into new ideological or military standoffs, African countries could get trapped in the messy middle.
North and East African states face particular exposure to direct risks from primary and proxy actors.
Iranian projectiles have already lit up Cairo’s night sky – a reminder of Egypt’s security vulnerabilities; with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi advocating for de-escalation.
Elsewhere, US-aligned military assets in Djibouti and Somalia, and Israel’s assets in Eritrea, could become the focus of retaliatory strikes by Iran or its regional proxies, such as the Houthis.
There is also an indirect security risk arising from a reprioritisation of Western strategic interests. With defence budgets and attention stretched by the Ukraine war and domestic concerns, Africa’s security sectors may find themselves increasingly under-resourced and unable to manage transnational threats.
Testament to Africa’s declining geostrategic value in Western security psyche, the continent received little attention during recent G7 and NATO meetings.
Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are already feeling the brunt of Western retrenchment in the Sahelian theatre. Further disengagement would leave them even more vulnerable to insurgencies.
Human security – often overlooked – is also at stake. Food insecurity, climate shocks and governance deficits already strain many African states.
Fresh pressures could arise if Middle Eastern instability fuels large-scale migration or refugee flows into Europe.
European diversion of development funding to manage such spillovers could further undermine safety nets for Africa’s most vulnerable populations.
Religious tensions
Religious and sectarian tensions, exacerbated by Middle East developments, may also inflame local disputes in Africa’s multi-faith societies.
A concern is Nigeria where Shiite groups could engage in attacks in solidarity with Iran.
Compounding these risks is the spectre of nuclear proliferation. If Iran abandons nuclear restraint, other regional players may follow, raising chances of an arms race with global consequences.
For Africa – a strong proponent of nuclear disarmament under the Pelindaba Treaty – such a shift would weaken its influence in future global arms control negotiations.
Diplomatically, pressure on African states to take sides will intensify.
They may be forced into uncomfortable choices – between Washington and Tehran, or the US and its rivals in Moscow or Beijing – with sanctions or aid withdrawal the price for defiance.
South Africa is in a particularly delicate position. Its inconsistent foreign policy has left it walking a narrow tightrope.
Washington has sparred with Pretoria over its stance on Israel, its domestic policies, proximity to Iran, and its alignment with BRICS. The US could react punitively to any sign of sympathy towards Iran.
Multilateral institutions, especially the United Nations Security Council and expanded BRICS+, will also be tested. Iran’s recent accession to BRICS has added complexity and may strain the bloc’s unity.
African members like South Africa, Egypt and Ethiopia could face awkward choices should the bloc lean towards favouring Tehran.
The implications are profound. A world that abandons international law for raw power threatens the very framework that protects smaller, less powerful states.
For Africa, this is an existential issue – without rules-based multilateralism, the continent’s collective influence diminishes.
Worse, a global slide into ‘might is right’ politics may embolden expansionist African leaders. Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed Ali, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame and Morocco’s King Mohammed VI could feel encouraged to pursue territorial ambitions under the cover of global disorder.
Others may take ‘preventive’ strikes against perceived enemies like the US and Israel – illegal under current international law.
Africa’s collective voting strength at global forums may also erode in such a scenario. If influence weakens, so too does Africa’s leverage on crucial matters such as debt restructuring, climate finance and development aid.
Only through a unified, strategic voice can the continent avoid marginalisation.
Yet the most immediate and tangible impact is economic.
Global uncertainty traditionally sparks a ‘flight to safety’, strengthening the US dollar and weakening African currencies.
This raises debt servicing costs for African sovereigns, many of which are heavily dollar-indebted. Bond yields could spike, and fiscal pressures – already strained by post-pandemic recovery and fallout from the Ukraine war – would tighten further.
Energy
Energy security is another looming flashpoint. Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz – conduit for a third of the world’s oil – would send energy prices soaring. Net oil importers, including many African economies, would suffer painful imported inflation, raising transport, food and energy costs. This would intensify cost-of-living crises and complicate monetary policy just as central banks prepare to loosen rates to spur growth.
Broader trade disruptions, coupled with the expiry of Trump’s tariff reprieves, could drag the global economy into recession.
For Africa, the fallout could be severe. Depreciation-driven debt deterioration could complicate restructuring in Zambia, Ethiopia and Ghana.
Others – like Kenya and Nigeria, where debt servicing swallows over 30% of revenue – would face even tighter fiscal constraints.
Smaller economies reliant on customs-sharing arrangements, like Lesotho and Eswatini, are also vulnerable, with Southern African Customs Union earnings there already projected to decline by as much as 20 per cent this year.
Fiscal buffers
Limited fiscal buffers would force many African governments to divert funds from development spending to cover external gaps – risking social unrest, political instability and the erosion of already thin reserves.
Still, a few bright spots exist. Rising gold prices could benefit producers like Ghana and South Africa. Likewise, higher oil prices may boost revenues for exporters like Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya.
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Yet these gains probably wouldn’t offset the broader economic harm of disrupted supply chains, slower global growth and weaker demand for non-commodity African exports.
In this volatile context, African leaders must act. Security capacities and collaboration must be bolstered to reduce dependence on foreign powers and cushion against internal and external threats.
Diplomacy must become more unified and strategic – both to protect Africa’s interests and uphold the international rules that safeguard its sovereignty. Economic resilience, through fiscal prudence, dollar de-risking and deeper regional market development, is urgent.
The Iran crisis may rage abroad, but its sparks are falling on African soil – and the continent must brace for impact.
Ronak Gopaldas, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Consultant, Signal Risk Director and Menzi Ndhlovu, Signal Risk Senior Country Risk and Political Risk Analyst
(This article was published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).
