ADC Coalition: A futile chase by discredited politicians destined to gift APC an easy 2027 victory, By Ijeomah Arodiogbu

The recent so-called coalition under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) stands as a textbook example of a wild goose chase in Nigerian politics, an exercise in futility that promises much but delivers little beyond recycled rhetoric and fleeting headlines.

Launched amid high-profile defections in 2025, this grouping unites figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who departed the Peoples Democratic Party after years of internal strife, former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Senate President David Mark installed as national chairman, ex-Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Rivers Governor and Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi, and former Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola appointed as national secretary.

The coalition’s stated aim, to rescue Nigeria from one-party dominance and democratic decline, sounds noble on paper, yet it quickly reveals itself as an uneasy alliance of disunited politicians whose lengthy tenures in powerful public offices produced scant evidence of genuine progress for the average citizen. These leaders, having held sway over national treasuries, state budgets, and policy levers for decades, repeatedly prioritised elite consolidation, personal vendettas, and short-term political survival over sustained investments in education, healthcare, infrastructure, security, and economic diversification that could have lifted millions out of poverty and despair.

Mr Atiku Abubakar’s record as vice president from 1999 to 2007 under Olusegun Obasanjo exemplifies this pattern. During that era, widespread unemployment persisted, rural electrification lagged, and corruption scandals tarnished the administration’s legacy, leaving many Nigerians in the same precarious conditions they endured before. Mr Atiku’s subsequent multiple presidential runs, including in 2007, 2019, and 2023, often highlighted his experience, but his focus remained on power acquisition rather than transformative governance.

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Peter Obi, governor of Anambra State between 2006 and 2014 (with interruptions), promoted himself as a frugal manager who saved funds and invested in education and health, but assessments reveal persistent challenges: many schools remained under-resourced, healthcare facilities inadequate for a growing population, and rural roads often impassable during rains, as constituents continued to voice frustrations long after his exit.

Nasir El-Rufai’s governorship in Kaduna from 2015 to 2023 was marred by allegations of authoritarian tactics, escalated ethno-religious conflicts, farmer-herder clashes that displaced communities, and insecurity that claimed lives and disrupted livelihoods, undermining claims of effective leadership.

During Rotimi Amaechi’s tenures as Rivers State Governor and Minister of Transportation, there was persistent oil theft, militancy in the Niger Delta, unfinished projects, and corruption probes, which left riverine populations in ongoing hardship and environmental degradation.

David Mark’s extended legislative career, culminating in Senate presidency from 2007 to 2015, aligned with periods of high oil revenues yet minimal trickle-down benefits, with bloated national budgets failing to translate into improved living standards or reduced inequality.

These individuals, having commanded significant resources and authority, consistently fell short of using those platforms to foster inclusive growth or build resilient systems. Their tenures often featured policy flip-flops, patronage networks, and a focus on personal or zonal aggrandizement rather than national cohesion.

Now, out of power and facing the ruling All Progressives Congress’s incumbency, they converge under the ADC not out of shared ideology but mutual desperation for relevance and a return to influence. This disunity manifests plainly in ongoing internal frictions: factional disputes over control, whispers of potential defections, and public spats.

Even Mr Peter Obi himself acknowledged in a Premium Times interview on 7 July 2025, that some coalition partners were “old and failed” politicians, yet he justified collaboration by citing their experience, a concession that inadvertently underscores the group’s reliance on recycled figures rather than fresh vision.

This ADC arrangement starkly contrasts with the coalition that formed the All Progressives Congress in 2013-2015, which merged the Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change, All Nigeria Peoples Party, and a faction of the PDP under a focused anti-incumbency drive against Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. That merger succeeded through strategic compromises, a unified presidential candidate in Muhammadu Buhari, and clear messaging around change, corruption fight, and security, propelling the APC to victory in 2015.

The ADC, however, lacks such discipline: it emerged from personal fallouts rather than broad consensus, features no dominant unifying figure, and grapples with ticket contention that could fracture it further. Reports of poor performances in by-elections and local polls, especially the recently concluded by-elections in Kano and Rivers States, as well as the Chairmanship Elections in the six Area Councils of the Federal Capital Territory, illustrate the coalition’s inability to convert noise into votes. The members appear more driven by a raw hunger for power they once wielded but failed to deploy effectively than by any coherent program capable of addressing Nigeria’s multifaceted crises.

These politicians display profound confusion, lurching from one platform to another in pursuit of relevance while demonstrating limited capacity to harness executive authority for public good. Mr Atiku’s repeated bids without triumph, Mr Obi’s shift from PDP to LP to ADC, Mr El-Rufai’s exit from APC amid controversies, and Mr Amaechi’s long-standing opposition posture all suggest opportunism over principle.

Stripped of incumbency perks, they now assemble under a borrowed banner, projecting optimism that feels increasingly detached from reality. This power hunger, untethered to proven competence, reveals itself in the coalition’s struggles to build grassroots structures, resolve leadership tussles, or counter the APC’s institutional advantages.

Strong grounds exist for optimism that should this ADC coalition make it onto the 2027 ballot, it will deliver the easiest and most comfortable victory yet for the All Progressives Congress. The coalition’s emergence thus functions more as self-sabotage than serious challenge, ensuring APC consolidation. This wild goose chase, built on disunity and past failures, promises not renewal but reinforcement of the status quo, leaving the electorate with renewed disillusionment rather than hope.

*Dr Ijeomah Arodiogbu is the National Vice-Chairman (South-East) of the All Progressives Congress (APC).