As things stand today, the political winds suggest that Tinubu’s march toward a second term is propelled not by chance but by a calculated consolidation of advantage; a blend of reform, performance, diplomacy, and strategy that has left his rivals struggling to catch up.
As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 presidential election, the country’s political scene is already beginning to stir. Conversations in corridors of power, strategy sessions in party offices, and quiet negotiations across the geopolitical zones, reveal that the race for Aso Rock has begun long before the official campaign season starts. What is becoming evident, however, is that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has gradually consolidated a powerful advantage, reshaping the terrain in ways that will make his reelection bid difficult to stop.
The arc of this story began immediately after his victory in 2023. Tinubu inherited a country fatigued by economic stagnation and weighed down by costly policies that had survived for decades. His administration chose to confront these structural challenges head-on. The removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate were bold and unpopular decisions that triggered short-term hardship. Inflation surged, transportation costs rose sharply, and households felt the strain. These policies sparked protests and criticism but signaled a willingness to do what previous governments had avoided.
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Third year on, the logic of those reforms has become more apparent. Government revenue has increased, the Naira, though still pressured, has regained some stability compared to the volatility of 2023, and investors have begun to return with fresh interest in energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure projects. Tinubu’s advisers have made deliberate efforts to link these early sacrifices to visible dividends on the ground: the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road, the Badagry–Sokoto Highway, the rehabilitation of rail lines that connect northern markets to southern ports, and electricity projects that bring power to rural communities long neglected by the federal grid.
For Nigerians who have grown accustomed to political promises that evaporate after election season, the physical evidence of these projects has carried weight. Bulldozers clearing new roads, cranes hoisting bridge segments over rivers, and the hum of transformers in newly electrified towns have provided concrete proof that the government’s promises are translating into action. These images of earth being moved and structures rising have become some of the most persuasive elements of Tinubu’s political story.
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While this narrative of reform and delivery has gained traction, the political opposition has been consumed by its own internal crises. The Peoples Democratic Party, once Nigeria’s most formidable political brand, is yet to recover from its 2015 and 2023 defeats. Instead of using the past six years to rebuild, it has been hobbled by factional disputes, leadership battles, zoning quarrels, and defections of influential figures to the ruling APC. These internal bleedings and open wounds have sapped its energy and eroded its credibility as an alternative Party.
The Labour Party, which electrified urban voters in 2023 through the youthful “Obidient” movement, has also struggled to maintain its momentum. The energy that surged during the 2023 campaign season has been blunted by leadership wrangles, court battles over party structures, and the practical difficulty of sustaining a nationwide movement without an entrenched political infrastructure. The “Obidient” wave that once dominated social media has not translated into the kind of ground-level organisation needed to challenge a party like the APC in rural and semi-urban strongholds where elections are often won and lost.
This fragmentation of the opposition is not merely a setback for their ambitions; it has become an unexpected asset for Tinubu. Nigerian political history shows that defeating a sitting president is almost impossible without a united opposition and a single candidate who can bridge the country’s ethnic, religious, and regional divides. No such figure has yet emerged. Instead, the leading opposition parties appear more intent on outmanoeuvring each other than on articulating a joint vision capable of persuading voters to change course.
Tinubu’s own political instincts have also been central to his growing advantage. Over the course of decades in public life, from his tenure as governor of Lagos to his role in the formation of the All Progressives Congress, he has cultivated a reputation as a strategist who understands the mathematics of coalition-building. His victory in 2023, in a crowded and competitive race, demonstrated his ability to navigate shifting allegiances and regional sensitivities. In the years since, he has continued to deepen ties with governors, traditional rulers, legislators, and influential blocs across all six geopolitical zones, ensuring that his political network remains intact and operational ahead of the 2027 Presidential Elections.
One of the most potent tools in his favour has been the deliberate use of infrastructure as a political language that cuts across party lines. Nigerians have grown weary of campaign speeches and abstract policy papers; they want to see visible progress such as roads, bridges, railways, electricity. By prioritising projects that have direct and immediate impact, Tinubu’s government has been able to shift attention from political rhetoric to practical delivery. Each new stretch of highway, each rehabilitated rail corridor, and each energised community becomes a quiet argument for continuity.
This emphasis on the equitable distribution of infrastructure in line with the provisions of the Federal Character Act, has also undercut the opposition’s most reliable line of attack; allegations of sectional favouritism. By ensuring that development reaches both North and South, cities and rural communities alike, Tinubu has reduced the space for grievances that have historically fueled anti-incumbent campaigns. In places that once felt excluded from federal presence, new infrastructure is now serving as evidence that the administration’s promise of inclusive development is more than a slogan.
Another crucial element shaping the political mood is the psychology of voters in times of economic transition. Nigerians have borne the pain of reforms but there is a growing sense that these hardships were unavoidable. If the present trajectory continues and the economy continues to show further signs of stabilising by early 2026, the argument for maintaining the current course is likely to resonate even stronger. Voters who perceive progress on the horizon often prefer to stay the course rather than gamble with fragmentary opposition that lacks direction and cohesion.
The opposition’s declining populist momentum further diminishes its chances. The surge that powered the “Obidient” movement was a remarkable moment in Nigeria’s democratic history, but it has not been sustained. Social media activism alone has proven insufficient for the rigours of nationwide mobilisation. Without strong structures in rural and semi-urban communities and effective coordination at the polling-unit level, enthusiasm alone cannot secure electoral victory.
At the same time, the PDP’s struggles with internal discord: battles over leadership, zoning controversies, and the lack of a compelling presidential figure continue to sap the morale of its supporters. Instead of projecting unity and readiness for governance, the PDP appears to voters as embroiled in endless self-inflicted battles.
Tinubu’s diplomatic outreach has also contributed to his advantage. His administration’s efforts to attract foreign direct investment, engage meaningfully at global economic forums, and improve Nigeria’s ease of doing business have drawn positive responses abroad. Commitments for investment in energy, transport, and digital industries, along with rising interest from the Nigerian diaspora in new bonds and ventures, reinforce the perception that Nigeria’s economic direction is stabilising under his leadership. These international endorsements often echo at home, strengthening the president’s argument that his reforms are restoring the country’s credibility on the world stage.
Democracy depends on robust competition, and the role of the opposition is indispensable in keeping government accountable. Yet, criticism alone rarely wins elections. To persuade voters to change direction, a challenger must present a vision that is clear, credible, and capable of inspiring confidence across Nigeria’s diverse electorate. At present, no opposition figure or party has managed to offer such an alternative.
The 2027 presidential election will inevitably be framed as a referendum on Tinubu’s first term, but it will also test whether Nigerians believe that a change of leadership would improve their lives or derail the progress already under way. If ongoing reforms continue to mature and infrastructure projects reach completion across regions, the momentum is likely to favour continuity and Tinubu’s reelection.
For now, Tinubu’s narrative of reform, his delivery of visible projects, his coalition-building acumen, and the disarray within the opposition together shape a political landscape that tilts heavily in his favour. The opposition does not appear to have enough time to regroup and recover due to its hydra-headed challenges, hence the road ahead is steep. given their present state.
Unless an unlikely unforeseen event dramatically shifts the nation’s political calculations or galvanises it, Tinubu’s advantage looks set to carry him into the 2027 race as the candidate to beat. His consolidation of power has not been the product of incumbency perks alone but of deliberate political strategy, infrastructural delivery, and a reform narrative that has found traction among voters willing to trade short-term pain for the promise of long-term gain.
In the coming months, as campaign season draws closer, the opposition will continue to challenge him and amplify public grievances. That is the nature of democracy. But without a credible vision that resonates beyond criticism, their effort risks remaining symbolic rather than transformative.
As things stand today, the political winds suggest that Tinubu’s march toward a second term is propelled not by chance but by a calculated consolidation of advantage; a blend of reform, performance, diplomacy, and strategy that has left his rivals struggling to catch up.
Kayode Oladele, a lawyer and former legislator, writes from Abuja.
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