Like a thunderbolt from outer space, the announcement by the PDP National Executive Committee about its decision to zone its presidential candidacy to the southern part of Nigeria ahead of the 2023 presidential election has set the Nigerian political space alight with renewed conversations about the future of Nigeria’s liberal representative democracy. Although not altogether unexpected, this move by the PDP symbolises a party in repentance of the mortal sin it committed in 2023 when it violated its zoning principle by failing to work for the emergence of a southern Nigerian candidacy after the eight year northern presidency of President Muhammadu Buhari. To maintain equity, justice and fairness as well as prevent issues such ethnic and religious dominance in Nigeria’s democracy; something similar to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) principle in Western Democracies, Nigeria’s ruling elite have devised the principles of zoning and rotation of elective as well as appointive public offices to this end since independence in 1960.
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But unfortunately for the PDP, it made a wrong gamble by jettisoning zoning when it threw up former vice president Atiku Abubakar, a northerner to succeed President Buhari, another northerner after eight years in power, thereby violating the sanctity of zoning, which oscillates presidential power between the north and south every eight years. When the PDP violated zoning it also set sail against the wind of presidential power that was blowing south in 2023. And as was predicted on the page, the former ruling party turned major opposition party was going to run into trouble waters and sink into oblivion. I had this to say then, “That the PDP may not sail against the strong wind of presidency that is blowing south, will be for the party to field a southern candidate as its presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election. For the PDP 2023 presidential election is not just about ‘winnability’ but actual survival. While the APC is dominant in the north and the PDP’s strongest support base is in the south, the move by the APC to field a southern candidate in the 2023 presidential election will torpedo the PDP from the region if the party fields a northern candidate. And if the PDP goes ahead to sail against the wind in 2023 by fielding a northern candidate, the ship of the party will capsize, sink into oblivion as the party will lose in the north and in the south to the APC and go into extinction in post Buhari Nigeria.”
And true this prediction, the PDP was on the throes of death, nestled in political Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and waiting for final internment until the decision to work for the emergence of a Nigerian president of southern extraction on its platform in 2027. This is because when Atiku happened to the PDP, it developed a Wike problem, which was cancerous in nature as it rapidly spread and ravaged the party from within. However, having reached this decision to pick its next presidential flag bearer from the south, in alignment with national expectations and in conformity with the prevailing zoning arrangement, which will have the presidency retained in the south until 2031, the PDP is well on the long road to recovery. This crucial decision by the PDP, though but late not too late, is a reasonable, pragmatic, wise and strategic one that will halt the sinking of the party into oblivion and resuscitate the dying giant of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic Democratic dispensation.
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But for the PDP it is not yet Uhuru. In addition to the PDP’s lack of a clear cut alternative to what the APC currently offers, the party’s Wike problem still festers as the former governor of Rivers State and current FCT minister, has made it crystal clear to all that he is fully committed to the re-election of APC’s President Ahmed Bola Tinubu in 2027 while remaining a powerful member of the main opposition PDP. This stand will suggest that the ebullient Ezenwo Nyesom Wike may not be as enthusiastic about the recovery of the PDP as it will be in the interest of President Tinubu’s re-election if the main opposition party remains divided and in crisis.
But going forward, Wike will be standing on a weak moral waging an internal war against a party that has repented of its sin after taking a decision to right the wrong of 2023 in 2027. While Wike is within his democratic right to continue to support President Tinubu going into the 2027 presidential election, he should limit it to deploying his political influence to mobilize maximum support for him without resorting to undermining the PDP’s road to recovery through subterranean means. Minister Ezenwo Nyesom Wike has fought a good fight and the decision to zone the candidacy of the PDP to the south is a clear vindication for him as he may have lost the battle against Atiku in the party primaries in 2023, he has eventually won the war for the soul of the party.
And for those who accuse Wike of anti-party activities, let it be known that those most guilty of anti-party activities against the PDP are Atiku Abubakar, the northern wing of PDP and their southern cohorts who conspired to treacherously violate the zoning agreement within the party when it mattered most. And Wike was within his right as a Nigerian and southerner to work against any party arrangement that violates the principles of equity, fairness, inclusion and justice in a manner that undermines the social cohesion, unity and peace of the Nigerian state. An important hallmark of liberal democracy is the absolute right to democratic choices in line with one’s conviction and conscience. For example, in 2013, Democratic President Barack Obama of the United States of America appointed Senator Chuck Hagel, a Republican as his Secretary of Defence. This was because, unlike typical Republican conservatives, Senator Hagel was less hawkish and more conciliatory towards matters of international security especially as it concerns the Middle East Peace Process. Similarly, Senator John McCain, a leading member of the Republican Party of America rejected the candidacy of Donald Trump, his own party nominee for the November 2016 presidential election and instead threw his support behind Hillary Clinton of the Democratic because he considered Trump an American presidential misfit.
Back home in Nigeria, when the same PDP violated the zoning arrangement in 2011 and 2015, the northern wing of the party revolted against the party from within in rejection of the southern candidacy of Goodluck Jonathan. This is because loyalty to nation comes before loyalty to party in a liberal democracy and there is a clear difference between “protest votes” and “anti-party activities.” In a liberal democratic setting, individuals and groups within a party are allowed to protest against party decisions on candidacy and even legislations in parliaments if in their consideration these decisions run contrary to their principles, beliefs or interests. But recall that once PDP realised its 2015 mistake and retraced its steps by zoning its presidential ticket to the north, the party experienced a rebound enough to give the APC a hot chase for the number one position in the land. So, while he is well within his right to support any candidate of his choice as a protest against the PDP’s decision to violate zoning, but like Okonkwo in Achebe’s Things Fall Apart, who was advised against having a hand in the death of Ikemefuna, a boy that calls him “father,” Wike should not have a hand in the death of a party that calls him “leader” by embarking on anti-party activities by undermining the recovery of the PDP. As it turned out, Obierika was Okonkwo’s best friend.
Majeed Dahiru, a public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja and can be reached through [email protected].
