If for the sake of argument, Peter Obi, a good man by all accounts, intends to keep his promise, his ethnic group, the Igbo, which has been longing for one of their own to occupy the post, would ask him if he has gone out of his mind!.. The position, they would remind him, is not meant for him but for the group.
Peter Gregory Obi, former two-term governor of Anambra State, who dazzled the country in the 2023 presidential election on the banner of the Labour Party, is on the march again!
Obi, who has a foot in the Labour Party and the other in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has promised to serve only for one term if he is elected as the president in 2027.
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Not a few political watchers are convinced that Obi is dangling this carrot as a ploy to get the presidential ticket of the ADC.
Obi’s kinsman, Professor Charles Soludo, couldn’t believe his ears that anyone would have the audacity to say he would only serve for a term of four years when he is entitled to eight years.
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Soludo, who has managed the country’s finances as the governor of the Central Bank, seized the opportunity of his campaign for a second term to fire a harsh riposte at Obi.
As he put it: “How can anybody with a brain… You think you are talking to fools… Any politician who says that must be sent to a psychiatric home because the person must have some mental problem. ”
Indeed, the general consensus among Nigerians seems to be that you trust a politician at your peril.
Peter Obi may be a good man, but how do you trust him with the company he now keeps in the ADC, a party that some uncharitable critics have described as an Alliance of Disgruntled Candidates.
Political watchers easily recall that Obi once did promise that it was only death that could do him part with the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
But analysts say hardly had Odumegwu Ojukwu’s third memorial been held when Obi dumped APGA and joined the PDP.
He dumped the PDP in 2023 for the Labour Party, when he couldn’t secure the presidential ticket of the party.
Now, he is flirting with the ADC!
So, naturally, the question comes to mind: Can he be trusted to keep his word.
Doesn’t this sound like a desperation to be president?
Who was it that said when trust is betrayed, sorry means nothing!
Obi has answered his critics by citing examples of the great Nelson Mandela of South Africa, America’s Abraham Lincoln and JF Kennedy, who were presidents who shaped the destinies of their countries, despite the fact that they didn’t serve for two terms.
For the record, Lincoln, the 16th president of America, was elected for two terms. He was assassinated in his second term.
JFK’s first term was cut short by the assassin’s bullet.
Nelson Mandela, on his part, was 76 years old when he became the president of South Africa. The only assignment the old man gave himself was to unite a divided country. Besides, Mandela was a different human being. You could take his word to the bank.
Critics have pointed out that comparing Obi to either Mandela or Lincoln is like comparing Saul to Paul!
Coming back home, it seems we have travelled this road before.
Goodluck Jonathan as president, promised his party, the PDP, in 2011 that he would only serve for a term of four years.
The rest, as they say, is history!
When the day came to honour the pledge, the man who said he had no shoes but was then in a position to establish 10 shoe factories all over the country, told the PDP chiefs to go and bring the agreement where he signed that he would do only one term!
Talk of the aroma of power.
Besides, even a compound fool knows that it is near impossible to solve the problems of a country like Nigeria in four years.
Even the ascetic Muhammadu Buhari, who had given up after three unsuccessful attempts at being president, couldn’t resist the allure of a second term in office.
By general account, out of a term of four years, political office holders, technically speaking, only have two years to govern.
Those who should know say, the first year is used for settling down, paying political IOUs and understudying the problems and people of the country. The last year of the four year tenure is used for the campaign for re-election.
When a gaunt Olusegun Obasanjo was released from prison in 1998, and the rumour mill was rife that he was being pencilled down for the Presidency, the former chicken-farmer vigorously denied that he was interested in the Presidency.
In fact, he asked rhetorically: “How many presidents do you want to make of me?”
An obvious reference to the fact that he had been a former Head of State.
Again, the rest, as they say, is history.
By general consensus – although the man denies it – he tried unsuccessfully to amend the Constitution to get a third term.
Why would Peter Obi be different?
My opinion about the matter is this: it is difficult, if not impossible, for a Nigerian of today to use only one term of four years in office, when he is entitled to two terms of eight years.
He will be persuaded, even if against his will, to have a rethink.
The reasons are not far-fetched.
Ethnic groups, religious groups, not to forget old boys network, all lay claim to the occupant of a public office.
If for the sake of argument, Peter Obi, a good man by all accounts, intends to keep his promise, his ethnic group, the Igbo, which has been longing for one of their own to occupy the post, would ask him if he has gone out of his mind!
The position, they would remind him, is not meant for him but for the group.
Of a fact, only the Igbo nation has not had its son or daughter in the executive position of the country’s driving seat since independence!
They would remind him that the other two major ethnic groups: the Hausa-Fulani and the Yoruba have had bites of the cherry. So, why would he want to deny his group its rightful entitlement?
If he is not careful, they would drag him before the gods to purge him of the foolish idea.
Obi, I am told, is a strong Catholic.
His bishop would summon him and ask him why he wants to go against the Will of God. He will be reminded that it’s God that chooses leaders. Why then is he trying to go against the wish of God?
Based on these scenarios, Obi would then tell his party that he has heard from God, and God has told him to go for a second term.
As they say, if God is with us, who can be against us!
Gbemiga Ogunleye is principal partner at EbunOluwa Chambers.
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