Soaring fuel costs have significantly impacted the income of tricycle operators (popularly called Keke NAPEP) in the northern part of the country, as such expenses now consume about 73 per cent of their income, a new study has found.
The report, presented by Mukhtar Abdulhameed, the CEO of Carbon Assets Limited in Abuja on Thursday, at a federal stakeholder engagement and presentation of findings on “Catalysing Finance-Ready E-Mobility for Informal Transport in Northern Nigeria”, was conducted to assess the readiness of Nigeria’s informal transport sector for e-mobility adoption.
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It focused on Kano, Kaduna and Jigawa states, where informal transportation plays a critical role in daily mobility and economic activities.
Fuel prices have risen sharply in Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted major oil supply routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.
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Petrol, which retailed for around N870 per litre in major cities, has since increased by over 50 per cent.
According to the study, between 97 and 99 per cent of northern Nigerian tricycle operators have reported lower income since 2023, following the removal of fuel subsidies.
It further revealed that, for instance, in Jigawa State, tricycle operators spend more on fuel than their daily take-home income.
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The study found that there is significant willingness by tricycle operators to adopt e-mobility systems, with 94 to 98 per cent of respondents expressing interest in Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS), a model that allows users to swap depleted batteries instead of purchasing them outright.
It is estimated that operators, who currently spend about N9,600 daily on fuel, could pare operating costs to about N4,000 under a battery-swapping model, resulting in daily savings of about N5,600, or approximately N1.68 million annually.
The findings also revealed that Nigeria’s existing digital payment infrastructure is largely ready to support the deployment of electric mobility.
High emissions present climate finance opportunities
The study noted that tricycle-based informal transport systems across Kano, Kaduna and Jigawa generate about 1,042,100 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually from an estimated 190,000 vehicles, using IPCC Tier 1 methodology.
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As little as a 10 per cent shift to e-mobility will exceed the minimum thresholds required for certain climate finance instruments, creating potential opportunities for green investment in the Nigerian transport sector, the report observed.
Yet, battery performance remains a major barrier to adoption. Between 77 and 85 per cent of operators identified battery failure as their primary concern, with existing cases of battery failure issues already reported in Kano State.
The study stressed that enhancing trust in electric mobility will depend more on demonstrated performance than technical specifications, with transport unions likely to play a decisive role in accelerating adoption.
Between 90 and 99 per cent of operators surveyed said they would adopt e-mobility if recommended by their unions, suggesting that union endorsement could trigger near-universal adoption across the informal transport ecosystem.
“Capital is always looking for safety. It does not want to come into a space where it is unsure of returns,” said Abosede Paul Obameso, who represented the Partnership for Agile Governance and Climate Engagement at the event.
She noted that e-mobility presents both environmental and economic opportunities, but stressed that credible, evidence-based projects are essential for unlocking climate finance and private investment.
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