Nigeria needs $1.9 trillion for energy transition, NEITI tells lawmakers

Nigeria will require $1.9 trillion to achieve its net-zero energy targets by 2060, with $410 billion needed solely for gas infrastructure, the Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) told National Assembly members on Monday.

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Speaking at a one-day dialogue organised by the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) and the Tax Justice Network Africa in Lagos, NEITI’s Director of Policy, Planning and Strategy, Dieter Bassi, warned that this funding gap could stall the country’s energy transition and leave billions in fossil fuel assets stranded.

The event brought together lawmakers, including members of the African Parliamentary Network on Illicit Financial Flows and Tax (APNIFFT), to discuss strategies for phasing out fossil fuels, expanding renewable energy, and ensuring a just energy transition in Nigeria.

“Achieving net zero is not just about policy statements. It requires about $10 billion annually, yet we currently lack the financial access to support this transition,” Mr Bassi said.

Mr Bassi pointed at the structural challenges, including Nigeria’s reliance on fossil fuels, widespread gas flaring, and universal use of household generators.

“Every household has a generator,” he said, emphasising the significant carbon footprint this creates.

NEITI has proposed a three-pronged agenda to support the transition: deploying data to guide policy, elevating the voices of host communities and vulnerable populations, and implementing reforms to ensure environmental safeguards and local beneficiation.

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The organisation estimates that Nigeria needs $20 billion annually over the next decade to develop gas infrastructure, while Renaissance Capital suggests $17.3 billion to $29.3 billion may be necessary to support gas-transition programmes.

Analysts also noted that structured emissions reductions from renewable energy and carbon-saving projects could generate over N1 trillion annually for Nigeria.

NEITI cautioned that without reforms addressing unremitted royalties, gas-flare penalties, and crude losses, the country may struggle to finance a just energy transition.

Legislative support needed for renewable energy

Mr Bassi called on legislators to enhance laws on renewable energy, local electricity distribution, and climate finance to attract private investment and ensure rural communities benefit.

He cited Nigeria’s potential in solar, hydropower, and tidal energy, pointing to Gabon’s revenue generation from forest-based carbon credits as a model.

He also warned that ongoing coal mining and charcoal exports undermine climate goals.

“We cannot achieve a just energy transition if we continue exploiting coal and exporting charcoal while claiming to reduce carbon emissions,” he said.

The NEITI director also spotlighted domestic battery manufacturing as a growth opportunity. Despite abundant lithium and rare minerals, Nigeria has only one local lithium battery producer, limiting industrialisation and job creation.

Grid inefficiencies and environmental concerns

Mr Bassi raised concerns over inefficiencies in the national grid. He noted that up to 50 megawatts daily from the Ibom Power Plant were previously rejected by the national grid, a situation recent reforms under the Electricity Act now allow communities to address.

He stressed that Nigeria continues to lose billions due to deforestation, missing potential revenue from carbon markets.

“Forests are not just environmental assets; they are economic assets,” he said.

Lawmakers call for strategic climate policies

Several lawmakers delivered goodwill messages during the dialogue.

Akin Rotimi, Chairman of the House Committee on Media and Public Affairs, reaffirmed the House’s commitment to supporting renewable energy expansion, fiscal coherence, and low-carbon development while protecting vulnerable communities dependent on traditional energy livelihoods.

Oluwole Oke, Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, called for a strategic national approach to climate policy, citing coal mining in Kogi State as an example of environmental strain.

Olusola Fatoba, representing the House Committee Chair on NAFDAC, emphasised the need for a public health rationale for fossil fuel taxation.

Kalejaiye Adeboye, representing Ajeromi-Ifelodun federal constituency of Lagos, stressed broad stakeholder engagement and legislative oversight to ensure effective and inclusive climate financing.

Expert warns frontline communities are vulnerable

Olamide Martins, Associate Director at Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA), warned that frontline communities are already suffering.

He cited the Ayetoro community in Ondo State, which has lost 90 per cent of its land to sea-level rise, forcing women to migrate and schools to relocate repeatedly.

He urged stronger community participation and oversight, recommending the establishment of a National Just Transition Commission, a National Climate Change Finance Framework, local manufacturing of solar and battery components, mandatory environmental, social, and governance standards, and expanded vocational training for green jobs.

READ ALSO: NEITI calls for urgent reform of Nigerias solid minerals sector

CISLAC urges internal resource mobilisation

In his closing remarks, Auwal Musa (Rafsanjani), Executive Director of CISLAC, praised lawmakers for prioritising the dialogue and stressed the importance of internal resource mobilisation as many development partners exit Nigeria.

“This dialogue underscores the urgency of aligning Nigeria’s energy transition policies, legislation, and climate finance mechanisms to prevent economic and environmental losses while creating opportunities for sustainable development,” he said.