Frans Vierhout, a senior research analyst at the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA), has said the international community misunderstands the drivers of violence in Nigeria.
Drawing on a six-year study covering attacks between 2020 and 2025, Mr Vierhout, who spoke in Jos during a peace summit on Monday, said the dominant focus on jihadist groups such as Boko Haram obscures a far deadlier reality on the ground.
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“Our data leaves little room for ambiguity,” he said. “When we examine who is being killed, where attacks occur, and how violence fluctuates over time, the evidence consistently points in one direction. Boko Haram is not the main source of civilian deaths in Nigeria.”
According to ORFA’s findings, 79,323 people were killed in terror-related violence during the six-year period — an average of 36 deaths every day. Of that figure, 42,033 were civilians, while security forces and members of armed groups accounted for the remaining deaths.
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Mr Vierhout said the results overturn long-held assumptions. He said Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) — widely regarded as Nigeria’s most dangerous armed groups — were responsible for only 12 per cent of civilian killings combined. Boko Haram accounted for eight per cent, while ISWAP accounted for four per cent.
“In contrast,” he said, “armed militias we classify as Fulani Terror Groups were responsible for 44 per cent of all civilian deaths. That is four times the civilian death toll attributed to Boko Haram and ISWAP together.”
Mr Vierhout stressed that ORFA’s classification refers strictly to armed militias, not the Fulani ethnic group as a whole. “The vast majority of Fulani people are not involved in violence, and the data makes that distinction very clear,” he said.
A hidden pattern of violence
Beyond the scale of the killings, Mr Vierhout said ORFA’s analysis reveals patterns that are routinely overlooked in global reporting on Nigeria.
The study shows that Christians suffered disproportionately, with 28,551 Christians killed compared with 13,224 Muslims over the period under review. When these figures are measured against state population sizes, Christians were killed at 4.4 times the rate of Muslims in affected states.
“This is not just about raw numbers,” Mr Vierhout said. “In population terms, the losses suffered by Christian communities are devastating.”
He added that three-quarters of civilian deaths occurred during community attacks, typically raids on farming settlements marked by abductions, sexual violence, and the destruction of homes and livelihoods.
Abductions and unequal treatment
ORFA’s data also records 34,773 civilian abductions between 2020 and 2025. Fulani Terror Groups were linked to 43 per cent of these kidnappings, while unidentified armed groups accounted for 49 per cent.
While the total number of Christian and Muslim abductees was nearly equal, Mr Vierhout said ORFA’s field research revealed stark differences in how hostages were treated.
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“Survivor testimonies show that Christian hostages face higher ransom demands, longer captivity, harsher violence, and a greater likelihood of execution,” he said. “Christian women, in particular, face extreme sexual violence, forced conversion, and forced marriage.”
Call for a rethink
Mr Vierhout warned that Nigeria is “incubating a complex terror ecosystem that the outside world has yet to fully acknowledge,” arguing that policy responses based on an incomplete understanding of the violence are unlikely to succeed.
“Without a full accounting of the religious and communal dimensions of this conflict, efforts to stabilise Nigeria will remain fundamentally flawed,” he said.
He urged governments and international organisations to engage closely with ORFA’s data and reassess how Nigeria’s security crisis is understood and addressed.
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