Data quoted to back US allegation of Christian genocide in Nigeria questionable — Report

Data cited by US government officials to claim a Christian genocide in Nigeria cannot be independently verified, a BBC investigation has shown.

The report, published last Thursday, showed that much of the data used in the US political discourse to justify the threat of military action against the West African country is questionable.

According to the paper, while the figures for Christian deaths cited by some US officials were alarming, “assessing their accuracy is hard.”

Most of the data comes from a Nigerian rights group, the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), which alleged that over 100,000 Christians have been killed and around 19,000 churches destroyed since 2009.

US Senator Ted Cruz, in his campaign for sanctions on the Nigerian government, had quoted data sourced by the group to make his point.

The BBC reported that in a post on X, he wrote, “since 2009, over 50,000 Christians in Nigeria have been massacred, and over 18,000 churches and 2,000 Christian schools have been destroyed.”

Bill Maher, a popular comedian, had also claimed the Boko Haram group “killed over 100,000 since 2009, and burned 18,000 churches”.

These figures, the BBC noted, have been gaining traction on social media.

However, the BBC stated that InterSociety did not provide detailed evidence or references to support the figures it reported. It did not provide an itemised list of sources,

Without this breakdown showing where each number came from, it is difficult to confirm whether the total figure they gave is accurate or credible.

When asked to supply verifiable evidence, the organisation either declined or responded with broad summaries.

The BBC also reported that the methodology was opaque as dated reports were rolled into new totals, and there was no clear breakdown of how deaths were counted by religion, region or actor.

For example, Intersociety’s 2023 and 2024 reports claim that over 100,000 Christians have died in Nigeria since 2009.

The BBC stated that when it analysed some of the sources cited by Intersociety for a figure of 7,000 Christian deaths between January and August 2025, it found roughly half of the incidents did not specify the victims’ religion.

It also noted that when it counted carefully, the number of confirmed fatalities was closer to 3,000 than 7000.

This inaccurate figure, the BBC stated further, has been shared by US Congressman Riley Moore, who wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, demanding that the US use every diplomatic tool to stop what he described as the “slaughter of Christians.”

This includes designating Nigeria as a country of Particular Concern (CPC) and suspending arms sales and technical support to the government. This was done a few days before President Trump announced the CPC designation.

The BBC found that InterSociety’s figures are far higher than other sources of data on the number of Christians killed in Nigeria.

ACLED, a non-profit research organisation, in its report logged that about 53,000 civilians — both Muslims and Christians — as the total number of civilians who have been killed in political violence across Nigeria since 2009.

Between 2020 and September 2025, about 21,000 civilians died in abductions, attacks, sexual violence, and bombings.

“For its sources, Acled relies on traditional media, social media where the reports can be verified, rights groups, as well as local partners,” it stated

Data quoted by Trump

The BBC also examined the source of the data President Trump cited when announcing the CPC designation on Nigeria and subsequently the threat of military action. Mr Trump stated that around 3,100 Christians have been killed in Nigeria.

According to the BBC, he was referencing data from the Christian advocacy group Open Door, a group which tracks global persecution of Christians,

A review of the Open Doors report showed that between October 2023 and October 2024, 3,100 Christians and 2,320 Muslims were killed.

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The group listed “Fulani Terror Groups” among the main perpetrators, attributing nearly one-third of Christian deaths during that period to them.

The BBC identified that the description of Fulani herders as “jihadists” has sparked controversy in Nigeria over how such killings should be classified.

Experts have rejected the framing of the violence as religious, although herders are primarily Muslim, arguing it is driven mainly by competition for land, water, and grazing resources.

Fulani herders have clashed with both Muslim and Christian communities across the country.

Meanwhile, InterSociety has been linked to the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB).

The BBC reported that the Nigerian military has previously accused Intersociety of being linked to IPOB, but the NGO has denied any connection.

Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the proscribed group, wrote last Thursday to Mr Trump, alleging a christian genocide in the Southeast.

In his letter, he demanded an investigation into the “killing of Igbos Christians.”