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African countries are recording some of the fastest-growing breast cancer burdens globally, with Equatorial Guinea topping the list at a 312 per cent increase in new cases since 1990, a new analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study has shown.
The study, published on Monday on The Lancet, draws on data from population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems and interviews with family members or caregivers of women who died from breast cancer.
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It also provides updated global, regional and national estimates of female breast cancer burden and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2023 across 204 countries and territories, with projections extending to 2050.
African countries record sharp increases
Between 1990 and 2023, Equatorial Guinea not only recorded the highest increase in new cases (312 per cent) but also the second-highest rise in deaths, at 212 per cent.
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Other African countries with significant increases in new cases include Ethiopia (207 per cent), Egypt (189 per cent), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (160 per cent), and Mauritania (141 per cent).
The study also reported rises in Uganda (135 per cent), Mali (133 per cent) and Liberia (129 per cent).
Nigeria’s growing burden
In Nigeria, the study revealed a substantial rise in both incidence and mortality.
In 2023, Nigeria recorded 53,500 new breast cancer cases, representing a 542.9 per cent increase since 1990.
The age-standardised incidence rate stood at 72.1 per 100,000 population, reflecting a 108.8 per cent rise compared to 1990.
Breast cancer deaths in Nigeria reached 26,200 in 2023, a 408.3 per cent increase since 1990. The age-standardised death rate was 38.7 per 100,000, marking a 73.5 per cent rise over the same period.
These figures reinforce earlier reporting by PREMIUM TIMES that projected a 38 per cent rise in breast cancer cases globally by 2050, with a disproportionate impact on low- and middle-income countries, including Nigeria.
They also align with previous findings highlighting that policy failures, rather than purely medical limitations, are driving high cancer deaths among Nigerian women, particularly due to late diagnosis, weak health systems and high out-of-pocket costs.
Global projections to 2050
Globally, breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women.
An estimated 2.3 million new cases were diagnosed in 2023, with 73 per cent occurring in high- and upper-middle-income countries.
The study projected that the annual global breast cancer death toll will increase by 44 per cent, from 764,000 in 2023 to nearly 1.4 million in 2050, largely occurring in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
It also predicted that new cases worldwide would rise by about one-third, from 2.3 million in 2023 to more than 3.5 million in 2050.
Globally, three times as many new cases were diagnosed in women aged 55 years and older in 2023 compared to those aged 20 to 54 years. However, since 1990, incidence rates have risen among younger women aged 20 to 54, while rates in older women have not changed substantially.
Researchers said these differences may reflect shifting age patterns as well as changes in risk factors that vary between pre- and post-menopausal women.
Modifiable risk factors
The study linked 28 per cent of global breast cancer burden to six modifiable risk factors, including smoking, high blood sugar and obesity.
READ ALSO: Breast cancer cases to rise by 38% by 2050- Report
High red meat consumption had the greatest impact, accounting for nearly 11 per cent of all healthy life years lost. High alcohol use and low physical activity each contributed about two per cent.
The findings suggest that maintaining a healthy lifestyle such as; avoiding smoking, engaging in sufficient physical activity, reducing red meat consumption and maintaining a healthy weight, could significantly reduce risk.
The study’s lead author, Lisa Force, emphasised the need for coordinated global action.
Ms Force called for collaborative efforts to ensure functional health systems capable of early diagnosis and comprehensive treatment in all countries.
She also stressed the importance of reducing the cost of breast cancer therapies and ensuring that universal health coverage includes essential breast cancer services to protect patients from catastrophic health expenses and improve outcomes.
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