#OsunDecides2026: A governorship election trailed by sorrow, tears, blood

As Osun State prepares for Saturday’s governorship election, the contest has taken a darker narrative, one marked not only by campaign promises and political rallies but by killings and attacks that have left residents increasingly fearful of participating in the exercise.

In recent months, politically motivated violence has been recorded in parts of the state. The growing pre-election bloody incidents reflect a resurgence of the violence that has repeatedly accompanied elections in the South-west state.

The violence has largely involved the ruling Accord Party and its major challenger, the All Progressives Congress (APC), with both parties portraying the other as the aggressor.

The incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, is flying the Accord Party flag, while a former Commissioner for Finance, Bola Oyebamiji, is APC’s candidate.

A total of 15 political parties are fielding candidates in the contest. They are the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Action Alliance (AA), African Action Congress (AAC), African Democratic Party (ADP), All Progressives’ Grand Alliance (APGA), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Action Peoples Party (APP), Boot Party (BP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

The others are the Young Progressives Party (YPP), Zenith Labour Party (ZLP), and African Democratic Party (ADP), which has the only female candidate.

The candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) withdrew last Saturday and pledged his support for the APC candidate, but will still be on the ballot to make the 14th candidate.

Also, INEC on Wednesday approved the inclusion of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, following a court order, as the 15th candidate.

When election becomes a demon

In June, 14-year-old Ezekiel Olapade died after he was hit by a stray bullet during a gun battle involving suspected political thugs near the secretariat of Irepodun Local Government Area in Ilobu. Ezekiel was neither a politician nor a campaigner, but he paid the ultimate price for being in the wrong place when armed political thugs opened fire.

His father, Gbenga Olapade, alleged that Kareem Saheed, popularly known as Tanfeani, an alleged political thug, led a group of six armed men that attacked his wife’s palm-wine bar, located opposite the local government secretariat.

According to Mr Olapade, the attackers, alleged to be political thugs working for Mr Oyebamiji, arrived in a vehicle bearing campaign posters of the APC candidate and opened fire after spotting a man wearing a yellow cap, supposedly a member of the Accord Party, whom they believed was their target. One of the bullets struck the boy, and he died immediately.

The Osun State Police Public Relations Officer, Abiodun Ojelabi, confirmed the incident to PREMIUM TIMES and added that another victim was shot in the hand and taken to the hospital for treatment.

But Mr Saheed denied involvement in Master Olapade’s death. In a video, he said he was not at the scene when the shooting occurred. However, a video of gunfire that later emerged raised further questions about his alleged involvement. Regardless, the police subsequently arrested him alongside 23 other suspects in connection with political violence and cult-related offences in the state.

The teenager’s death was not an isolated incident. It became one of several instances of bloodshed recorded in the build-up to the governorship election

Data by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) shows the gravity of the problem. The organisation said it documented 44 election-related violent incidents across Osun State between October 2025 and June 2026. Of these, it said 26 occurred in May and June alone, representing 59.1 per cent of all incidents recorded during the period.

In its latest report, the organisation said no fewer than 73 election-related violent incidents leading to 29 deaths have been recorded, with Osogbo, the state capital, emerging as the worst-hit.

Bukola Idowu, executive director of KDI, during an interview with this newspaper, said the rising incidents of election violence are a warning sign and a call for urgent action to avert escalation.

“Voters need to know that they are safe. When such incidents continue up to the election, they will undermine citizens’ participation and the credibility of the electoral process,” he said.

The police also acknowledged the severity of the situation. In July, they disclosed that 30 people had been killed in pre-election violence incidents in Osun.

“From the complaints received, we cannot rule out the involvement of some politicians in the killings,” said Anietie Iniedu, the police spokesperson, during a morning brief programme on Channel TV.

The escalation of pre-election violence also revived memories of Osun’s history of election-related violence, with civil society organisations, security agencies and political actors warning of the dangers posed by the growing tension ahead of the poll.

The genesis

The current wave of political violence did not begin with the first gunshot of the 2026 election season. Its roots stretch back to an earlier political battle between the local government chairpersons elected under the APC-led former governor, Gboyega Oyetola, and the new chairpersons elected under the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke.

In February 2025, the dispute over control of the state’s 30 local government councils spilt into violence after rival political parties, involving APC and Mr Adeleke’s former party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), clashed over who had the authority to occupy council secretariats following the re-run election.

The confrontation followed a legal dispute involving local government chairpersons elected under both parties, and the subsequent struggle for control of the councils.

When some APC members attempted to take over council secretariats following favourable court decisions, they encountered resistance from supporters of the PDP-led state government. The clash, however, left no fewer than five people dead, including the former council chairman of Irewole Local Government Area, Remi Abass.

As the dispute over local government control continued unresolved, the confrontation slipped into the state’s governorship contest, escalating into the deadly violence that tossed the state’s politics into chaos.

From billboards to bullets

The early warning signs began with the vandalising of campaign materials, including banners, and attacks on political offices.

In May, PREMIUM TIMES reported allegations by the Imole Campaign Council, the campaign organisation of Governor Adeleke, that APC supporters were destroying campaign billboards of the ruling Accord Party in Irewole, Ayedaade, Irepodun and Osogbo.

The APC denied the allegation and, in a counter-accusation, said its own campaign materials had also been destroyed by suspected thugs of the state government and the Accord Party.

The police confirmed that some billboards were damaged and said an investigation had commenced. But the police said the complainant had not identified any suspect at the time of this newspaper’s reporting in May.

However, in the same month of May, the confrontation moved beyond campaign materials.

On 18 May, the Accord Party alleged that armed men attacked Governor Adeleke’s campaign office and the party’s secretariat in Osogbo, describing it as the second attack on the governor’s campaign office within two weeks.

The party alleged that the attackers shot sporadically at the building, damaged windows and offices and inscribed messages on the wall.

The allegations further deepened the already bitter accusations between the two major political parties. By June, the violence had begun taking a more deadly turn.

On 23 June, another serious incident occurred in Esa-Oke, when Ajayi Aderogba, an Accord Party member, was shot dead while he was preparing to join a campaign rally.

The Adeleke campaign council accused APC federal lawmaker, Oluwole Oke, of attempting to frustrate the event and linked him to the violence. Mr Oke denied the allegation of involvement in Mr Aderogba’s death.

Four days after Mr Aderogba was shot dead, an APC member, Taofeek Mustapha, was shot in the leg. He told reporters in an interview that his attackers pursued him after seeing him wearing a cap bearing the insignia of APC governorship candidate Mr Oyebamiji. The police confirmed the shooting and said an investigation had commenced.

Around the same period, confrontations were reported in Ife, Akoda, Owode-Ede and Osogbo following an APC campaign activity in Ife. Three people were reportedly injured during a clash, while rival political parties traded accusations over responsibility.

The incidents were becoming frequent enough to attract the attention of the police hierarchy and international organisations.

On 3 July, the Inspector-General of Police, Tunji Disu, visited Governor Adeleke in Osogbo over the worsening pre-election violence in the state.

Mr Disu said the police had been tracking groups linked to the violence and warned that the governorship election was not a war. He ordered the state command to arrest and prosecute anyone involved in killings and other attacks.

“I’ve taken my time to look at what is happening around here, and for a number of months now, we have been able to count the number of deaths and the number of crises and fighting in Osun,” Mr Disu said during the visitation. “We are approaching a very important election, and this will not be entertained by us.”

But the IGP’s visit and order did not put a stop to the violence as more reports on pre-election violence incidents surfaced.

Following Mr Disu’s visit, Mr Adeleke, while receiving a delegation from the British Government as part of diplomatic engagements ahead of the election, called for visa restrictions and economic sanctions against the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Oyetola, and other politicians over their alleged involvement in political violence.

Pre-election violence reaches the ballot box

The threat of violence extended beyond politicians and their supporters to the machinery of the election itself.

On 26 July, armed men invaded an Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Permanent Voter Card collection centre at Oyinlola DC School in Okuku, Odo-Otin Local Government Area.

According to the police, about 10 armed men fired shots into the air before carting away three packs of PVCs.

“The hoodlums reportedly fired sporadically into the air and carted away three packs of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs),” Mr Ojelabi said.

INEC, while reacting to the incident, condemned the attack and appealed to security operatives to launch an investigation into the case and arrest the perpetrators.

The attack nevertheless demonstrated how pre-election violence could directly interfere with the electoral process, even before voters reached the polling units.

Flashpoints

In late June, INEC disclosed that it had identified about 385 flashpoints across 11 LGAs in the state through its Electoral Risk Management (ERM) framework, warning that they could potentially disrupt the August poll.

INEC Chairman Joash Amupitan, during a meeting under the aegis of the Osun Governorship Election Stakeholders’ Forum, said the hotspots include Atakumosa East, Atakumosa West, Boripe, Ede North, Ede South, Ife Central, Ifedayo, Ila, Osogbo, Ifelodun, and Oriade local government areas.

“These hotspot locations will receive specialised, high-visibility security deployments. Security forces have been issued strict operational directives to neutralise thuggery, cult activities, and any attempt at ballot disruption, while maintaining absolute professional neutrality,” Mr Amupitan said during the meeting.

Consequently, the police said it would deploy at least 14,692 officers across the state to provide security during the poll, with at least four officers assigned to each polling unit. NSCDC said it would deploy 10,210 personnel for the poll.

KDI, on its part, identified 12 LGAs as high-risk areas even as it warned that they required targeted security operations and political interventions to prevent violence and ensure a peaceful poll.

More violent incidents, blame game

On 9 June, an APC rally reportedly came under attack around Sabo in Ife. A convoy returning from Ede was also reportedly involved in a confrontation with Accord Party supporters, with gunshots subsequently reported around Osogbo. Three people were reportedly injured.

On 8 May, gunmen also killed Kolade Eluyera, son of the women’s leader of the Accord Party in Ikire, Irewole LGA. The incident triggered a blame game between the campaign organisations of Mr Adeleke and APC’s Mr Oyebamiji.

Pelumi Olajengbesi, spokesperson for the Imole Campaign Council, Mr Adeleke’s campaign organisation, alleged that the killing was carried out by suspected thugs linked to the APC.

Kola Olabisi, co-chairman of the media and publicity committee of the Oyebamiji governorship election campaign council, dismissed the allegation as false and said police should be allowed to conduct an impartial investigation without political interference.

On 15 and 16 July, the police confirmed that two people were killed in separate incidents in Egbatedo and Owode-Igbona in Osogbo. Four others were injured in one of the clashes, while two suspects were arrested and a pistol, ammunition and cartridges were recovered.

Although Governor Adeleke condemned the killings, the police described the incidents as suspected cult-related violence rather than definitively establishing an electoral motive.

Osun’s current security crisis has increasingly blurred the lines between political violence, cult clashes and ordinary criminality. But for residents living through the violence, the distinction may offer little comfort. The fear is the same.

Some residents have been avoiding the colours of political parties and campaign insignia in public for fear of becoming targets.

For AbdulAzeez Adewuyi, a resident of Iwo, the fear surrounding the upcoming election has changed how he participates in politics.

In the previous elections, he said he actively engaged with political parties and received souvenirs and other gifts from their supporters. But that changed in 2022 after a clash erupted at a polling unit near his residence, leaving one person dead.

The recent killings and attacks recorded ahead of this year’s election further deepened his concerns, prompting him to distance himself from politicians and their supporters.

“It has always been brutal. Many people lose their lives or get shot because of their involvement in election politics. Even innocent people can become victims just because they are wearing a party cap or clothing,” Mr Adewuyi said. “Election is a no for me. People will move on after the election, but one family will continue to suffer the loss forever. It is better to stay away.”

Calls for a violence-free poll

Bothered about the tension in Osun, some stakeholders have demanded a peaceful and transparent process come Saturday.

Titi Adeleke, wife of the state governor, led a group of women to demand a peaceful poll come Saturday.

Mrs Adeleke called for an end to the alleged arrest of Accord Party leaders in the state and urged the police to invite those involved in the killings for questioning and take appropriate action.

“We are demanding a free and fair election. All we want is peace and a violence-free exercise in Osun,” she told the police.

The IPAC National Chairman, Yusuf Dantalle, said at a press conference in Abuja that there is a need to safeguard democratic values, peaceful engagement and the electorate’s right to choose their governor.

“The election must be a genuine contest of ideas, policies, programmes and popularity, while the freely expressed will of Osun people determines the outcome,” Mr Dantalle said.

Echoes of past elections

The fear of political violence in parts of Osun is not entirely new. The state has a history of electoral violence in which political competition has repeatedly spilt beyond the ballot box.

Survivors of previous election-related attacks have described being shot, beaten and forced to flee their communities because of their political affiliations, while many others lost their lives in the election season.

A study by KDI found that Osun State recorded the highest number of election-violence incidents in Nigeria in a year, accounting for a significant share of the 344 incidents documented nationwide between January 2022 and January 2023.

The Foundation for Investigative Journalism documented accounts of survivors of electoral violence in Osun, including victims who suffered gunshot injuries and were forced to flee after attacks.

Their stories offer a disturbing reminder of what is at stake when political competition becomes violent.

Osun’s political history shows that election violence often begins months before voting, as rival parties mobilise supporters, compete for control of political structures and attempt to intimidate opponents. The violence leaves scars long after the votes are counted.