ANALYSIS: 2027: Will former President Jonathan run? The implications

The adoption of former President Goodluck Jonathan as the presidential candidate of the Taminu Turaki faction of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has become one of the major issues in Nigeria’s evolving 2027 political conversation.

“The party had already given our presidential aspirant the waiver. Like I said in the beginning, he was deputy governor, became governor, became vice president, became president, so we didn’t see anything that needed screening; and therefore, the party had given him a waiver. In other words, he had been declared and cleared as the candidate of the PDP for the presidential election, and that is President Jonathan.” Babangida Aliyu, chairman of the Screening Committee and former governor of Niger State, told journalists on 19 May.

Mr Jonathan’s candidacy was subsequently ratified on Saturday, 30 May, at a ceremony where a member of the House of Representatives, Fred Agbedi, received the flag on his behalf.

While some Nigerians have questioned the development, largely on constitutional grounds, others have cautioned Mr Jonathan, warning that running under a divided PDP could undermine the statesman status he has built since leaving office in 2015.

Mr Jonathan has neither accepted nor rejected the nomination publicly. His silence has further increased speculation in political circles. Some supporters believe he is assessing the political environment before making a decision; others argue that he may be reluctant to abandon the elder statesman image he has cultivated.

Mr Jonathan was Nigeria’s vice president between 2007 and 2010 before succeeding President Umaru Yar’Adua who had died in office. He later won the 2011 presidential election under the PDP.

Jonathan’s rise and dramatic fall in 2015

Jonathan’s presidency remains one of the most debated in Nigeria’s democratic history. His administration witnessed major economic growth, banking reforms, expansion in the telecommunications sector and improvements in agricultural financing. Under his watch, Nigeria rebased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014 and temporarily became Africa’s largest economy.

However, his administration also faced corruption allegations, insecurity and weak political coordination. The rise of the Boko Haram insurgency in the North-east significantly damaged public confidence in his government, while the abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls in 2014 intensified both local and international criticism.

Politically, Mr Jonathan entered the 2015 election weakened by internal divisions within his party, the PDP. Several governors and senior party leaders defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), newly formed from a merger of three legacy parties to challenge the PDP’s dominance.

Mr Jonathan eventually lost the election to the APC candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, in what became Nigeria’s first democratic transfer of power from an incumbent president to an opposition candidate.

His defeat was historic not only because of the outcome, but also because he conceded defeat before the final declaration of results, a move widely praised for helping to stabilise Nigeria’s democracy.

From former president to African statesman

Since leaving office in 2015, Mr Jonathan has largely stayed away from frontline partisan politics, shunned PDP’s events and meetings, and reinvented himself as a statesman and international democracy advocate.

Through the Goodluck Jonathan Foundation and his involvement with regional and global organisations, he has become one of Africa’s prominent election observers and mediators.

He has led or participated in election observation and peace missions in countries including The Gambia, Mali, Liberia, Zambia and South Africa. He has also served as an ECOWAS and African Union mediator in political disputes across the continent.

Many analysts argue that his international reputation improved significantly after leaving office, particularly because of his peaceful concession of defeat in 2015, which contrasted sharply with the political tensions often associated with elections in several African countries.

Mr Jonathan has consistently advocated electoral reforms, peaceful transitions, and democratic stability across Africa. His interventions in regional conflicts and democratic negotiations have earned him recognition among African leaders and international organisations.

Why some politicians want Jonathan back

The move for Mr Jonathan’s return to power is driven by several political calculations.

First, some politicians see him as a unifying figure capable of attracting support across regional and religious divides. Unlike many active politicians, the former Nigerian leader has maintained a relatively moderate public image since leaving office.

Second, supporters believe public frustration over economic hardship, insecurity and political instability under successive administrations has created nostalgia among sections of Nigerians, who now view his tenure more favourably.

Third, within the PDP, some stakeholders believe only a nationally recognised figure like Mr Jonathan can revive the party’s declining fortunes ahead of the 2027 election.

Fourth, if he contests and wins, Mr Jonathan will only be able to spend one term in office having served one term in his first tenure. This would ensure that power returns to northern Nigeria in 2031 to fulfil an unwritten rule among Nigeria’s political elites for power to rotate between the North and South every eight years.

However, Mr Jonathan’s adoption appears to be a political gamble by the PDP faction. Mr Turaki served as Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs in the Jonathan administration. Both men reportedly held several private meetings in recent months, which insiders say centred on the 2027 election and the future of the PDP.

The PDP has been struggling with internal crises since the 2023 general elections, leading to deep divisions, as rival power blocs battle for control of the party’s structure and direction.

Aside from the Turaki-led faction, the other bloc is aligned with the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike. Officially headed by Abdulrahman Mohammed, it is the one currently recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The Turaki-led faction’s adoption of Mr Jonathan also reflects the deepening fragmentation within the PDP. Since losing power in 2015, the opposition party has struggled with internal leadership disputes, defections and disagreements over zoning arrangements.

By projecting Mr Jonathan as a consensus candidate, the faction may be attempting to reposition itself as the legitimate political centre within the PDP crisis.

However, not all reactions have been positive. Some Nigerians argue that the move reflects the inability of major political parties to develop younger leadership and fresh alternatives. Others remain sceptical about another Jonathan candidacy, arguing that Nigeria needs a new generation of political leadership rather than a return to former officeholders.

The Makinde factor and the opposition’s confusing signals

The Jonathan adoption has become even more complicated because of competing developments within the opposition.

Recently, Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, declared his intention to seek the presidency under a proposed alliance between the APM and the same faction of the PDP, which adopted Mr Jonathan. However, the coast may now be clear for the former president following Mr Makinde’s recent emergence as the candidate of the APM.

Even so, there is the Nyesome Wike-backed faction to contend with. The INEC-recognised faction has picked Sandy Onor, a former senator, as its flagbearer.

So, as things stand, given INEC’s recognition of the rival PDP faction, the former president’s nomination may be a non-event.

The constitutional controversy over Jonathan’s eligibility

Another big legal issue surrounding Mr Jonathan’s possible candidacy is whether he is eligible to contest another presidential election.

The uncertainty originated from the Fourth Alteration to the 1999 Constitution, signed into law in 2018. Section 137(3) provides that a person sworn in twice as president cannot contest again.

Opponents of Mr Jonathan’s ambition argue that having been sworn in to complete Mr Yar’Adua’s tenure in 2010, and again after winning the 2011 election, another election would lead to a third presidential term.

Supporters, however, insist that the constitutional amendment cannot apply retroactively. The amendment came into force three years after Mr Jonathan left office.

The issue reached the courts in 2022 when the Federal High Court in Yenagoa ruled in favour of Mr Jonathan’s eligibility. The judge, Isa Dashen, held that the constitutional amendment could not be applied retroactively.

Last Tuesday, the Federal High Court in Abuja again affirmed that decision. Peter Lifu, the judge, dismissed a suit seeking to bar Mr Jonathan from participating in the race and held that the issue of his eligibility had already been settled by the previous court decisions. Therefore, the judge held that there was no constitutional basis to prevent him from seeking office again.

Despite that ruling, legal concerns persist as the case has moved to the Appeal Court.

Solu Bakare, a senior constitutional lawyer, agrees with the lower court”s decision. He told PREMIUM TIMES that Mr Jonathan has not exhausted his allowable time in office under the law.

“This Jonathan case, was it a president for two terms? I’ll argue that it wasn’t in the sense that the supposed first term, he wasn’t elected as president, but he was a running mate to the then-president.

“He didn’t contest at that time for the presidency; he only got there as vice president or running mate to the then president. Because of that, I’ll say he still has that chance to go for another term. He initially didn’t contest for the election; he only completed the term of the former president,” the lawyer argued.

Mr Bakare, however, agreed that only the court has the ultimate authority to interpret the Constitution and give binding decisions on eligibility issues.

“His victory could be challenged because there are so many things that speak to the grey areas until the court decides it. For example, in the days of Shagari-Awolowo interpretation of the two-thirds (of 19 states), until the Supreme Court came out to say this is the best interpretation and whatever the court says is the final, especially the Supreme Court.”

Zoning politics and Jonathan’s possible advantage

If the court rules in favour of Mr Jonathan again, the discussion will shift to whether the zoning arrangement will favour him. Mr Jonathan is from Bayelsa, south-south Nigeria.

Since President Bola Tinubu, a southerner as the former president, will be contesting for a second term, many politicians, even within the PDP, believe the presidency should remain in the South until 2031, in line with the country’s informal power rotation principle.

Although the Nigerian constitution does not recognise zoning, the arrangement has remained one of the country’s most influential political traditions since the return to democracy in 1999. The principle was largely designed to balance power between the North and the South and reduce ethnic and regional tensions in the country’s multi-ethnic political system.

Within the PDP, zoning became even more controversial after the party fielded former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, as its presidential candidate in the 2023 election, despite calls for the ticket to be ceded to the South after President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight-year tenure.

The decision triggered internal rebellion within the party and contributed significantly to the crisis that weakened the PDP ahead of the election. Some governors and influential party leaders openly opposed the party’s presidential ticket, arguing that the PDP violated its own principles of equity and rotation.

Against this backdrop, some PDP stakeholders now see Mr Jonathan as a potentially acceptable southern candidate capable of attracting wider support across the country.

Jonathan’s electoral strength

Mr Jonathan’s actual electoral strength, more than a decade after leaving office, is also a subject of debate.

Although his public image has improved since 2015, popularity alone may not translate into electoral victory in Nigeria’s increasingly competitive political environment.

One of the biggest concerns is whether Mr Jonathan still possesses the grassroots political structures required to mount a successful nationwide campaign.

Since leaving office, he has largely distanced himself from active partisan politics and has not maintained the type of visible political machinery associated with leading presidential contenders. The former president has repeatedly shunned PDP’s meetings and events.

Unlike in 2011 and 2015 when he controlled the federal government and the PDP’s national structure, Mr Jonathan currently lacks a clearly defined political base within the fragmented opposition.

Political observers also question whether he can command the same level of support in northern Nigeria, where dissatisfaction with his administration’s handling of insecurity contributed significantly to his defeat in 2015.

Although some northern politicians may support him for strategic reasons linked to zoning and coalition-building, it remains unclear whether ordinary voters in the region would embrace another Jonathan candidacy after the divisive politics surrounding his previous administration.

There are also concerns about generational politics. Nigeria’s voting population has changed significantly since 2015, with younger voters becoming increasingly influential in national elections.

The 2023 election demonstrated the power of youth-driven political movements, especially on social media platforms where candidates are now subjected to intense scrutiny and rapid political mobilisation.

With the look of things, Mr Jonathan may struggle to connect with younger voters demanding political reforms, economic opportunities and a departure from Nigeria’s traditional political establishment.

Another challenge is the financial and organisational strength of the ruling APC. Presidential elections in Nigeria require enormous resources, nationwide mobilisation and extensive political alliances across the country’s six geopolitical zones.

Some analysts argue that even if Mr Jonathan secures support from sections of the PDP, building a strong coalition capable of confronting the APC’s national structure would remain a major political hurdle.

There is also the issue of perception. While some Nigerians now remember Mr Jonathan’s administration more favourably due to current economic realities, others still associate his government with corruption allegations, rising insecurity and weak political leadership.

That nostalgia alone may not be sufficient to convince voters seeking new solutions to Nigeria’s worsening economic and security challenges.

Could Jonathan’s candidacy split the southern vote?

Another concern about Mr Jonathan’s adoption is its potential impact on voting patterns, particularly in southern Nigeria.

Should the former president eventually accept the nomination, he would enter a political space that is already crowded with southern aspirants and potential contenders.

Southerners who have emerged as presidential candidates, apart from Mr Jonathan, include President Tinubu (APC), Peter Obi (NDC), Adewole Adebayo (SDP), Donald Duke (PRP), Dan Nwanyanwu (ZLP), Esther Okereke (NRM), Omoyele Sowore (AAC), Chibuzor Okereke (LP) and Mr Makinde (APM).

This is also with the assumption that Sandy Onor, the presidential candidate of the Nyesom Wike-backed faction of the PDP, does not make it to the race.

Political analysts warn that multiple southern candidates could divide opposition votes across the South-west, South-east and South-south, making it more difficult for any single candidate to emerge as the dominant challenger to the ruling party.

Such a scenario could indirectly benefit a northern candidate should one emerge as the principal opposition contender. Former Vice President Atiku is among the northern politicians whose plans continue to attract attention amid reports of possible opposition realignments.

The concern is not necessarily that Mr Jonathan cannot attract votes, but that his entry may further complicate opposition calculations at a time when many stakeholders are advocating unity rather than multiplication of candidates.

Implications of a Jonathan candidacy

If Mr Jonathan accepts the PDP faction’s nomination and contests the 2027 election, the implications could be significant for both the PDP and Nigeria’s political landscape.

For the PDP, his candidacy could temporarily unite some factions and restore national visibility to the party. His name recognition and political experience may help rebuild confidence among supporters disillusioned by years of internal crises.

However, a Jonathan candidacy could also deepen divisions within the opposition. Other aspirants and factions may reject the process, especially if the adoption is viewed as lacking broad party consensus.

It is believed that Mr Jonathan’s candidacy may also affect the political future of key opposition figures, particularly Atiku.

Some political observers also believe the APC may not view a Jonathan candidacy as a major threat compared to younger or more aggressive opposition figures.

They argue that some ruling party strategists could quietly prefer facing a familiar political figure whose previous administration remains vulnerable to criticism over insecurity and governance challenges.

At the same time, a Jonathan candidacy could revive political consciousness in the Niger Delta, where many supporters still view his 2015 defeat as a major political setback for the region.

His return to active politics may reignite debates about minority representation, regional inclusion and power distribution within Nigeria’s political system.

Critics may also question whether returning former leaders represents political recycling rather than democratic renewal.

READ ALSO: PDP faction ratifies Jonathan as presidential candidate as police barricade convention venue

Supporters, however, argue that his experience, international network and conciliatory image could help calm political tensions in an increasingly polarised country.

Whether Jonathan eventually contests or not, the push for his return reflects the deep leadership vacuum within Nigeria’s opposition politics and the continued reliance on familiar political figures more than a decade after the PDP lost power.

Public views

The President of the Campaign for Democracy (CD), Ifeanyi Odili, told PREMIUM TIMES that the former president is entering the race at a politically unfavourable time, given the current dynamics within his party and the broader national political environment.

“He wants to contest at a time that is not favourable for him. Even while he was in power, he was defeated. Is it now that he’s no longer in power that he wants to win the election?

“I believe he’s being used by some people and unfortunately, at his age, he didn’t realise that,” he said.

On his part, the Archbishop Metropolitan and Primate of the Church of Nigeria, Henry Ndukuba, urged Mr Jonathan to resist the temptation to contest the 2027 presidential election, warning that a return to partisan politics could diminish the statesmanlike reputation and global respect Mr Jonathan currently enjoys.