ANALYSIS: The price Tinubu would’ve paid if Fubara had been impeached

Everyone ought to understand this by now – that the rift between Governor Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State and the state legislature is not so much about the violation of any law; it has much to do with the supremacy battle between Mr Fubara and his estranged predecessor, Nyesom Wike, now minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

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Messrs Wike and Fubara’s rift had defied two peace deals brokered by President Bola Tinubu, an emergency rule in the state, and recently resulted in the third impeachment attempt against the governor, which a state high court has now temporarily halted.

On Tuesday, Mr Wike confirmed that a truce had been reached between the governor and the lawmakers after President Tinubu, for the fourth time, intervened in the state’s political crisis.

Here, PREMIUM TIMES highlights the likely implications if the lawmakers had succeeded in removing Governor Fubara and his deputy.

Possible repeat of protest votes in 2027 against Wike, Tinubu

In 2023, a PREMIUM TIMES investigation revealed that the then-presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, won the presidential election of that year in Rivers contrary to the result declared by INEC announcing then-APC candidate, Bola Tinubu, as the winner of the poll in the state.

Mr Tinubu is an ally of Mr Wike, the governor of the state at the time, who openly backed the then-APC candidate.

Observers believe that Mr Obi’s election victory in the state, though not officially declared by INEC, was due to protest votes against Mr Tinubu as president.

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Analysts argue that Rivers people could cast similar protest votes against Wike-backed Mr Tinubu in 2027 if the Rivers assembly goes ahead to impeach Governor Fubara.

One analyst, Chinonso Orakwe, told PREMIUM TIMES that although Mr Wike enjoys a huge following in Rivers State, if the lawmakers backed by the FCT minister proceed to impeach Mr Fubara, the electorate in the state could vote against his interest and ally, Mr Tinubu, as a form of protest.

“If Fubara is impeached, the Rivers people can show sympathy for him in the 2027 election and that will necessitate the protest votes to show Wike that power belongs to the people,” Mr Orakwe, who is based in Anambra State, said.

He argued that if the Rivers people could resist the temptation to be influenced by money during the 2027 poll, they could successfully demonstrate that they have the power.

Another political analyst, Anthony Egobueze, corroborated Mr Orakwe’s position, arguing that the Rivers people were more likely to vote against anyone they believed was subverting their will by masterminding the impeachment of Mr Fubara and imposing another candidate on them.

“I can tell you that if the current governor, Fubara, is with the people and they bring in another person to impose on the people, the people can protest with their votes by not voting for the choice of that godfather,” said Mr Egobueze, an associate professor of politics and governance at the Rivers State University Port Harcourt.

The professor, without mentioning names, argued that Rivers people appear to be tired of having a political godfather who desires to control the political fate of the oil-rich state.

But Jonah Onuoha, a professor of political science at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, disagreed with the position.

Mr Onuoha contended that, although Mr Fubara’s impeachment is unlikely in light of the recent peace deal brokered by President Tinubu, even if the governor were eventually removed, it would not trigger protest votes against Mr Wike’s interest in the 2027 election in the state.

“This is because Wike is the one holding the political structure in Rivers State. He is the one who brought the local government chairmen there; all the assembly members are under Wike,” he told PREMIUM TIMES.

The university professor said he was even privy to an agreement in the new peace deal for Mr Wike to nominate candidates to become new commissioners in Mr Fubara’s cabinet.

“So, Wike is the one in charge of the political structure,” he said, arguing that Mr Tinubu trusts the FCT minister better than the governor.

Will Ikwere’s dominance continue if Fubara is axed?

An impeachment of Mr Fubara, who is of the Ijaw/Riverine Ethnic Group in Rivers, would have had grave political implications in Rivers State.

It will not only mark the abrupt end of the Ijaw/Riverine Ethnic Group’s first shot at the governorship seat, but pave the way for the return of power to the Ikwerre Ethnic Group, which had produced governors in the state since 1999.

For context, Rivers State is ethnically diverse, but three major ethnic groups broadly align with the state’s three senatorial districts.

The Rivers East District is dominated by Ikwerre and Etche Ethnic Groups, while the Rivers South-east Senatorial District is dominated by the Ogoni Ethnic Group.

The Rivers West Senatorial District is dominated by the Ijaw/Riverine Ethnic Group, where Mr Fubara hails from.

Aside from the senatorial districts and ethnic groups, people often use “Upperland or Upland and “Riverine” to describe two broad geo-cultural blocs in the state.

While Uplands are inland areas that are less coastal and more land-based, Riverine areas are coastal and creek-based, with rivers, mangroves, fishing, and seafaring.

Major ethnic groups in Upland include Ikwerre, Ogoni (Khana, Gokana, Tai, Eleme), Etche, Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Ekpeye and Abua.

The Riverine, Ijaw (Kalabari), Okrika, Ibani (Bonny, Opobo), Andoni, and Ogu are the major ethnic groups.

Meanwhile, a smaller ethnic group, Ndoni, under the broad category of Ikwerre Ethnic Group within the Rivers East Senatorial District was the first to produce Rivers governor in 1999.

The dominance of Ikwerre in Rivers politics

The dominance of the Ikwerre Ethnic Group in Rivers State politics began in 1999, when Peter Odili became the first elected governor of Rivers State.

He handed over to Rotimi Amaechi, within the same Rivers East District and Ikwerre Ethnic Group.

Mr Amaechi later handed over to Mr Wike, also from the Ikwerre Ethnic Group and within the same district.

Mr Wike subsequently handed over to Mr Fubara from the Ijaw/Riverine Ethnic Group under the Rivers West District.

It was the first time someone from the Ijaw/Riverine Ethnic Group would be governor in the oil-rich state.

Again, it was the first time power would move away from the Ikwerre Ethnic Group and the Rivers East District after about 24 years.

Mr Wike was instrumental in the balance of Power.

In the build-up to the election that brought Mr Fubara as governor, Mr Wike had opposed the emergence of another Ikwerre man as his successor.

It was a big battle for the then-governor. But he stood his ground.

The FCT minister has since admitted that he “handpicked” Mr Fubara as his successor to ensure harmony and a sense of belonging to all the sections of the state.

He said he had forced other aspirants from the Ikwerre to drop their governorship ambition because of Mr Fubara.

The former governor boasted that if he had picked a politician from Ikwerre as successor, nobody would have stopped him.

He added that, by “handpicking” Mr Fubara as governor of Rivers, he (Wike) jettisoned personal interest in favour of unity and progress of the state.

Return of power to Ikwerre?

The facts, as stated above, mean that if Governor Fubara and his Deputy, Mrs Odu, are impeached, the power equation in Rivers would shift in favour of Mr Wike’s Ikwerre Ethnic Group, but to the disadvantage of Mr Fubara’s Ijaw/Riverine Ethnic Group.

If Mr Fubara and his deputy, therefore, were to be removed from office, the Speaker of the Rivers House of Assembly, Martin Amaewhule, would have assumed office as governor, according to Section 191(2) of the Nigerian Constitution.

Mr Amaewhule hails from Obi/Akpor LGA within the Ikwerre Ethnic Group in Rivers East District.

First, if Mr Fubara were to be impeached and Mr Amaewhule succeeds him as governor, political power would have returned to the Ikwerre Ethnic Group, in the same senatorial district which had governed the state from 1999 to 2023.

Although a subsection of the Nigerian Constitution provides that the speaker of the assembly shall serve as governor for a maximum of three months before another election, the return of another Ikwerre man as governor, not Ijaw/Riverine Ethnic Group, would have been very likely.

An indigene of Rivers State and a human rights activist, Ann-kio Briggs, while appearing as a guest on Channels TV’s Politics Today on 22 January, expressed the sentiments.

“If they (Rivers lawmakers) succeed in impeaching the governor, then the speaker will be the governor of Rivers State and that brings us to square one, which is disregard for the Riverine-Upland Dichotomy in Rivers State,” Ms Briggs said.

The activist hails from Abonnema Community in Akuku-Toru, a local government area within the Riverine area of the state.

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She contended that there was an earlier agreement that governorship position should rotate between the Upland and the Riverine Areas for equity in Rivers.

“But what we have in Rivers State is that the Upland has governed for 24 years since 1999,” she noted.

Ms Briggs warned that Mr Fubara should be allowed to take the turn of the Riverine bloc and that any attempt to truncate it will be resisted.

“Any attempt to remove the Riverine governor is going to be met with resistance both from the well-meaning other ethnic nationalities in Rivers and the Riverine people,” she said.