ANALYSIS: Is Zimbabwe at risk of another coup?

Tensions are rising in Zimbabwe over President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s evident intention to remain in power after his second term ends in 2028. Zimbabwe’s constitution explicitly prohibits serving more than two terms, but there are suspicions that Mr Mnangagwa intends somehow to circumvent that provision.

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This is fuelling criticism not just from the political opposition and civil society, but even the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) party. In particular, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga is against the move. He has been waiting to be passed the baton – which Mr Mnangagwa supposedly promised him – when together they ousted former president Robert Mugabe in November 2017 in a military takeover.

Among the rising chorus of critics calling for Mr Mnangagwa to go is a strong faction of war veterans, a key constituency in the ZANU-PF establishment who back Mr Chiwenga. Led by Blessed ‘Bombshell’ Geza, the faction plans an ‘uprising’ against him on 31 March. Geza was a Member of Parliament and a member of ZANU-PF’s Central Committee until he was expelled for fanning factionalism.

Geza has gone into hiding and the government is cracking down on anyone transmitting Geza’s calls. Alpha Media Holdings (AMH) journalist Blessed Mhlanga was arrested after he broadcast Geza’s interviews on AMH’s Heart and Soul TV. He has been denied bail twice. Others have gone into hiding.

This clampdown has provoked widespread criticism in and beyond Zimbabwe. Idriss Nassah, senior Human Rights Watch Africa Researcher, demanded the immediate release and withdrawal of charges against Mhlanga, which showed the “rights to freedom of expression and the media are under serious threat in Zimbabwe.”

The agitation dates back to August 2024 when ZANU-PF’s National Congress passed Resolution 1, saying Mr Mnangagwa’s terms as party head and Zimbabwe’s president should be ‘extended beyond 2028 to 2030’ – and that the country’s constitution be amended accordingly.

Mr Mnangagwa insists he is a constitutionalist and will step down in 2028. But few believe him because he has done nothing to cancel Resolution 1. Stepping down would also mean abandoning the vast wealth he and his faction in ZANU-PF have accumulated over the years, largely through graft.

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This is perhaps the key grievance of his enemies. In a broadcast from a hidden location on Wednesday, Geza listed alleged Mr Mnangagwa business cronies who he said had grown fat on corrupt government tenders.

But how Mr Mnangagwa would remain in office constitutionally is unclear. An anonymous senior opposition leader, also one of the constitution’s architects, told ISS Today that three safeguards in the constitution prevent anyone from seeking a third term. These include that: no one should serve more than two terms; constitutional amendments require approval by a national referendum; and no incumbent can benefit from a constitutional amendment.

So the legal obstacles to Mr Mnangagwa seeking a third term are considerable, he said. As are the political obstacles – especially that the necessary referendum would probably turn into a referendum on Mr Mnangagwa’s rule. Considering the broad unhappiness with him, that would be a hard vote to win.

The opposition leader thought Mnangagwa’s strategy would simply be to extend his term and those of current parliamentarians. This would still require amending the constitution, but he suspected Mr Mnangagwa’s faction believed they could pass as amendment without a referendum.

It’s hard to assess how serious these rumblings are, if there will be a 31 March uprising, and whether that might unseat Mr Mnangagwa.

It was the military, then headed by Mr Chiwenga, that removed Mr Mugabe in 2017, so speculation about its political loyalties is rife. Daily Maverick recently quoted unnamed military sources saying Mr Chiwenga still commanded considerable support in the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. However, Mr Mnangagwa retains the allegiance of Defence Force Chief General Philip Sibanda.

The Director of Zimbabwe’s SAPES Trust, Ibbo Mandaza, told ISS Today: “I don’t know whether it’s a coup in the making, but all indications are that the centre can no longer hold.”

Brian Raftopoulos, a Zimbabwe and democracy expert at the University of Cape Town’s Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, believes ‘there’s real danger’ of an upheaval. He says Mr Chiwenga’s resentment about Mr Mnangagwa’s broken promise to step down in 2028 is creating divisions in ZANU-PF, the military and the security establishment. But he doesn’t foresee the “kind of massive support on the streets they [had] in 2017.”

David Moore, retired professor of development studies at the University of Johannesburg, agrees. “I would be surprised if a lot of people participated.” He doubts that the main opposition party – the greatly weakened Citizens Coalition for Change – would join in, as that would show they had “given up on rallying the masses, choosing instead to ally with a faction of the ruling party and the military, thus perhaps verifying what some observers already think.”

Mr Raftopoulos added that civil society is also weak. He said that even if there were violent protests within ZANU-PF, “Mnangagwa is going to keep this under control.” For example, he noted how Mr Mnangagwa shifted Zimbabwe National Army Lieutenant General Anselem Sanyatwe (believed to be a Chiwenga supporter) to Minister of Sport, Recreation and Culture – perceived as a huge demotion.

“And, he will continue to move people he feels that he can’t trust. The long run for him is either to contain Chiwenga as much as possible, or push him out and isolate him.” There would be disturbances and unrest, maybe even an attempt to oust Mr Mnangagwa. “But whether it will be a full-blown coup attempt, I have my doubts.”

And Mr Raftopoulos believes regional and global politics will be on Mr Mnangagwa’s side if he does crackdown on protests. “The global rise of the right has given traction to authoritarians like Mnangagwa. He can now say to the West, especially … the Trump administration, who are you to talk to us about democracy?”

He said Zimbabwe was no longer on the European Union’s watch list either, “So [Mnangagwa] won’t have to worry about any kind of blowback from the North, if he gets violent.”

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And the Southern African Development Community (SADC) – which Mr Mnangagwa now chairs – is too preoccupied with other issues like the Democratic Republic of the Congo to do anything, according to Mr Raftopoulos. Mr Mnangagwa might also have in mind that neither SADC nor the African Union took action after the November 2017 overthrow, even though their rules stipulate that member states be suspended after a coup.

One does not wish a military coup on Zimbabwe, especially if it just replaces one rapacious ZANU-PF faction with another. But neither does one wish to see Mr Mnangagwa smash any protests while an indifferent world looks on. The region should intervene.

Peter Fabricius, Consultant, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).