The Nigerian economy is turning the tide and is back on the path of growth after years of being constrained by fiscal crises, external shocks, policy missteps and missed opportunities, according to a new report by Quartus Economics, a Lagos-based research house focusing on economic policy.
The report, titled “The Journey to a Trillion-Dollar Economy: Nigeria on the Rise Again,” drew data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Monetary Fund, highlighting notable growth in aggregate and per capita terms.
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Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP), which fell to $181 billion in 2023, regained lost ground and climbed to $252 billion in 2024, and further advanced to $307.5 billion last year, the report noted.
“The expansion reflects growth in nominal GDP plus a currency appreciation during the year,” it stated.
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“From $4,320 in 2014, GDP per capita (output adjusted for population) hit a low of US$1,083 in 2024. In 2025, income per capita grew to US$1,295 in an ascent towards sustainable growth.”
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has introduced a crop of investor-friendly but often tough reforms since President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023 in order to accelerate growth, which was largely sluggish under the last administration, during which the economy twice slipped into recession.
Apart from ending costly fuel subsidies, which for years were a drain on the treasury, the government loosened foreign-exchange controls and sharply devalued the naira to make the economy attractive to international investors.
While these have fuelled the worst cost-of-living crisis in the country in nearly three decades, they have helped boost Nigeria’s external position which saw foreign reserves climb to a thirteen-year high of $50.5 billion in February.
Other reforms, including banking industry recapitalisation, overhauling the tax system and rebasing the economy to reflect current realities, have been noted among the positives that may drive President Tinubu’s dream of attaining a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
Yet, acute power shortage and a gross infrastructure deficit feature among the key structural challenges that must be urgently addressed for the country to attain strong and sustainable economic growth.
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According to Quartus, with a growth rate of 22 per cent, Nigeria outpaced sub-Saharan Africa’s average growth rate (10.3 per cent) in dollar terms in 2025 and most major economies in the region.
“With the exception of Ghana, which posted a 37.7% growth in US dollar GDP, Nigeria outperformed South Africa (+6.5%), Egypt (-2.7%), Algeria (6.2%), Senegal (13.1%), Cote d’Ivoire (13.5%), Tanzania (10.3%), Kenya (14.4%). Ethiopia suffered a decline (-23.2%) while Angola (18.53%), and Morocco (13.69%) also grew slower than Nigeria in dollar terms,” the research house said.
The report remarked that despite Nigeria adding 4.8 million people to its population in 2025, it was able to report a 22 per cent growth in economic output, while per capita GDP jumped by 19.5 per cent from the 2024 level.
It added that Nigeria’s population, though large and young, is growing slower than output.
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