First Bank unveils Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, stresses resilience as winning factor for businesses

First Bank of Nigeria Limited, the commercial banking subsidiary of First HoldCo Plc, has hosted its annual Nigeria Economic Outlook, a high-level dialogue that shapes ideas, insights, and pathways for Nigeria’s economic journey through 2026.

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The forum, held in Lagos on Tuesday, brought together prominent economists, subject-matter experts, business leaders, and finance professionals for discussions on the outlook for the Nigerian economy in 2026 and a review of the country’s economic landscape in 2025.

Themed “The Great Calibration: Mastering Resilience in an Era of Asynchronous Growth,” the session was organised to provide the needed guidance to First Bank customers on how to navigate the economy in the current year.

Yemi Kale, the group chief economist and managing director of research & trade intelligence at Afreximbank, was the keynote speaker.

Panellists included Olusegun Zaccheaus, chief economist, PwC; Francis Anatogu, CEO Transaharan; Bongo Adi, professor of Economics & Data Analytics, Lagos Business School; Niyi Yusuf, managing partner, Verraki and Cheta Nwanze, lead Partner at SBM Intelligence. Others comprised Osahon Ogieva, deputy managing director, First Bank Ghana; Ayokunle Ojo, head, treasury sales & derivatives marketing, First Bank; and Laura Fisayo-Kolawole, head, equities and alternative solutions, First Asset Management.

“Global growth is uneven. Markets are recalibrating. Capital is more selective. Yet, history shows that nations and institutions that adapt early, think long-term, and build resilience deliberately do not merely survive periods like this. They emerge stronger,” Olusegun Alebiosu, the CEO of First Bank, stated in his opening remarks.

He stressed that economic progress for Nigeria in the current year will rely on investment in human capital, disciplined reforms, scalable infrastructure, public-private partnerships and robust financial intermediation.

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Global macroeconomic environment

In his keynote address, Mr Kale dwelled on the current global environment, where growth, inflation, capital flows, and policy are no longer synchronised but instead are moving at different speeds and in different directions amid uncertainties.

Businesses that are focused on building resilience and developing adaptive strategies will be able to deal with such uncertainties and navigate successfully through the fragmentation, he remarked.

“The lesson here as we enter 2026 is therefore that there is really no single policy path and there is no universal investment playbook anymore. In this kind of environment, the winners are defined not by their size any longer, but by their credibility, by resilience as well as adaptability,” Mr Kale said.

According to him, African economies that depend on a narrow set of commodities will continue to contend with risks that they can’t control into 2026.

He identified Nigeria’s digitally savvy youthful population as a strength that can position the country as a veritable regional leader in the tech space.

Mr Kale expects the strongest economic performance on the continent this year to be concentrated in markets that combine credible policies, consistent reforms and sustained infrastructure investments.

In the same vein, he is optimistic that African countries that align their policies with economic fundamentals will be able to attract capital more quickly and develop more rapidly.

“Importantly for Nigeria, its recent reforms, especially regarding FX and subsidies, are now restoring investor credibility. And if these reforms are sustained and deepened, they could position Nigeria more firmly back in the league of credible, investable African economies.”

Critical signposts for businesses in 2026

Olusegun Zaccheaus, the chief economist at PwC, highlighted global interest rates, the dynamics of OPEC+, and technology as the three key areas businesses must pay attention to in 2026. For him, the conversation around interest rates is a significant one, considering that if rates remain lower in advanced economies, there is a likelihood that more capital will shift to parts of the world, especially developing economies, where rates are higher.

“As we have highlighted, oil price, production direction will have significant impact on Nigeria economy,” Mr Zaccheaus said.

Assessing resilience

According to Osahon Ogieva, the deputy managing director of First Bank, Ghana, resilience in 2026 “is really not about who is growing fastest, it’s about who can fund growth on a bad day.”

He identified discipline in cash flow management, sustainable revenue generation and supply chains that are flexible under stress as key considerations in measuring resilience.

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“Companies that will succeed, companies that we are partnering with are not just surviving shops. We are anticipating them. They are having trigger-ready playbooks. If this doesn’t go right, we do this,” Mr Ogieva said.

Mindset shift

Mr Yusuf, who is also the chair of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, observed that a shift in mindset from being rigid and to becoming adaptive will play a critical role in the success of businesses in 2026.

He emphasised the need for businesses to move away from being transaction-centric to focusing on customer solutions.

“You can be fast and still be accurate. You can be of good service and still be not that expensive. But you can be consistent and still drive change. And I think that if you have the mindset shift, then companies and our sales members can be better placed to thrive in what is looking to be a very volatile environment,” he said.