A recent survey by the Central Bank of Nigeria reveals that businesses and households anticipate a gradual easing of inflation over the next six months.
The Inflation Expectations Report for February 2025, released on Wednesday by the CBN’s Statistics Department, indicates a shift in sentiment as respondents express cautious optimism about the country’s economic outlook.
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The survey, which gathered responses from 3,565 participants—comprising 1,900 firms and 1,655 households—found that a significant portion of respondents expect inflationary pressures to diminish.
For the next month, 40.3 per cent of overall respondents foresee inflation increasing, while 47.1 per cent believe it will remain stable, and 12.6 per cent predict a decrease.
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However, over a longer horizon, the outlook becomes more optimistic. Over the next six months, 44.3 per cent expect inflation to rise, but 28.6 per cent anticipate stability and 27.1 per cent forecast a decline.
Businesses appear not so optimistic about inflation easing, with 40.3 per cent predicting a decrease over the next six months, compared to 29.8 per cent who expect it to rise.
Households are slightly more cautious, with 48.8 per cent anticipating higher inflation and 24.1 per cent forecasting a decline over the same period.
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Expenditure outlook
The survey also sheds light on expenditure plans that are in line with inflation expectations.
Businesses are more likely to increase spending in the current month, with 46.7 per cent planning higher expenditure compared to 32.6 per cent of households.
This suggests that firms may be preparing for growth or investment despite the broader economic uncertainties.
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The survey also shows the public’s confidence in the CBN’s communication.
An overwhelming 98.9 per cent of respondents described the central bank’s communication as transparent, while 98.4 per cent stated that they follow the CBN’s announcements closely.
Additionally, 65.1 per cent of respondents expressed a desire for the CBN to reduce interest rates, reflecting widespread concern over the cost of borrowing and its impact on economic activity.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased to 23.18 per cent in February from 24.48 per cent in January 2025.
The statistics office said the February 2025 headline inflation rate decreased by 1.30 per cent compared to the January 2025 headline inflation rate.
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