ANALYSIS: Anambra 2025: How PVC collection, population could decide governorship race

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Over 2.8 million voters are registered to vote in Saturday’s off-cycle governorship election in Anambra State.

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The figure, recently released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), marks a significant increase from 2.65 million registered for the 2023 general election in the state.

The commission’s spokesperson, Sam Olumekun, in a statement on 4 September, said the register was compiled after the July Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise and a biometric clean-up that removed 27,817 multiple entries.

The exercise resulted in 140,370 new valid voters and 5,983 transfer approvals, adding 146,353 individuals to the voter roll.

Of the 21 local government areas in the state, Idemili North has the largest voting bloc with 246,318 voters (8.8 per cent), followed by Awka South with 216,611 voters (7.7 per cent) and Ogbaru with 188,016 voters (6.7 per cent).

At the lower end are Dunukofia, with 83,580 voters (2.98 per cent), and Anambra West, with 71,332 voters (2.55 per cent).

These statistics underscore the electoral weight of Anambra’s urban centres, especially Awka, Onitsha, and Idemili, which together have over 20 per cent of the state’s registered voters but record low turnout due to apathy.

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PVC Collection: The voter readiness gap

Despite the large voter base, INEC’s internal data show that as of late October, only 63.9 per cent of registered voters had collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs). This prompted the Commission to extend the collection deadline from 29 October to 2 November.

The uncollected PVCs, estimated at over 1 million, represent a significant participation gap. Unless addressed, this could suppress turnout and distort the impact of the newly registered voters, especially young first-time participants concentrated in urban centres.

Regional Dynamics: The battle for the central zone

INEC’s voter register paints a vivid picture of Anambra’s electoral map — one that underscores sharp contrasts among the three senatorial districts.

The Anambra Central Senatorial District stands out as the state’s political heavyweight, boasting 1,000,878 registered voters, or 36 per cent of the state’s electorate.

It is the only zone with over a million registered voters — a decisive advantage that can tilt any governorship contest.

Anambra North registered 939,716 voters (34 per cent), while Anambra South, despite its vast landmass, trails slightly with 862,196 voters (30 per cent).

In population terms, the balance has shifted over time. The 2006 Census placed Anambra South ahead with 1.57 million people, followed by Anambra Central (1.47 million) and Anambra North (1.13 million).

But projections now suggest the Central zone has overtaken others, driven by rapid growth in Awka South and Idemili North—two of the state’s most urbanised local government areas.

The voting trends from the 2021 governorship election reinforce this dominance. Anambra Central cast the highest number of votes (87,107), followed by the South (81,235) and the North (73,261).

With more than a third of the state’s electorate, Anambra Central remains the zone to watch. Its influence is anchored not just in numbers but in its urban density and political mobilisation capacity.

Yet even within the zone, contrasts persist: Idemili North, the largest LGA, dwarfs Dunukofia, the smallest — a reminder that voter strength and influence are unevenly spread in the state’s most decisive battleground.

Population pressure and urban growth

Anambra’s population has grown from 4.17 million in 2006 to a projected 6.31 million, with the fastest growth in Awka, Idemili, and Onitsha.

The demographic surge intensifies demands on electoral logistics, security deployment, and campaign strategy.

The state’s 326 wards and 5,720 polling units are roughly evenly spread across the zones, but the Central’s 1,966 units reinforce its outsized role in determining outcomes.

Political campaigns are expected to concentrate resources here, recognising that winning central could be decisive for the overall governorship race.

Historical turnout and political engagement

Since 1999, voter participation in Anambra’s governorship elections has steadily declined. While early elections in 1999 and 2003 recorded turnout above 46 per cent, participation fell sharply in subsequent polls: 16 per cent in 2010, 25 per cent in 2013, 21 per cent in 2017, and a historic low of 10 per cent in 2021.

The 2021 election, which brought in Charles Soludo (APGA) as governor, epitomised this trend. Of 2,466,638 registered voters, only 253,388 were accredited. Mr Soludo polled 112,229 votes, defeating Valentine Ozigbo (PDP), who got 53,807 votes, and Andy Uba (APC) and Ifeanyi Ubah (YPP), who polled 43,285 and 21,261 votes, respectively.

Mr Soludo won 19 out of the 21 LGAs, with Messrs Ozigbo and Ubah each winning one.

Analysts attribute the record-low voter turnout in the 2021 Anambra governorship election—just 10 per cent, the lowest in the state’s history—to a mix of factors: fear of violence linked to IPOB’s sit-at-home order, insecurity, last-minute cancellations, and logistical hitches, including widespread BVAS malfunctions.

The deployment of over 34,000 police personnel underscored the authorities’ anxiety about potential unrest, even as the election itself remained largely peaceful.

Urban centres, despite having the highest voter registration figures, recorded the poorest participation. LGAs such as Awka South, Onitsha North, and Nnewi North—each with hundreds of thousands of registered voters—barely managed a turnout of between 10 and 15 per cent.

By contrast, several smaller or rural LGAs achieved between 25 and 30 per cent, showing how strong local mobilisation can offset urban apathy.

Population density alone, therefore, does not guarantee electoral influence. Campaigns that fail to engage voters directly risk leaving their supposed strongholds dormant on election day.

Anambra’s electoral history underscores a deeper pattern: large voter rolls have not translated into political participation.

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Unless efforts are made to rebuild public trust, improve security, and streamline logistics, a small fraction of the electorate will continue to decide who governs the state.

With turnout disparities persisting, the Central Zone—home to the capital and the largest bloc of registered voters—could again determine the outcome in Saturday’s election if mobilisation and participation remain uneven across zones.

Statistical breakdown at a glance