The state of the nation, By Jibrin Ibrahim, et al.

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The Fourth Republic has been in place since 1999. Over this period, the country’s democratic process has been emptied of its essence. One way of understanding what happened to our democracy is to review how reckless political cabals have created a situation in which Nigeria faces a grave threat to its foundational constitutional principle of the separation of powers. Checks and balances between the branches of government have been imperilled.

Today is June 12. As we celebrate, maybe I should say mourn, the great events that followed the annulled election of 12^th June 1993, let us not forget that the event was a very long time ago. 33 years is ancient history for a majority of Nigerians, with a population whose median age is 18 years. For those of us of a certain age and a tradition of democratic struggles, June 12 was Nigeria’s rite of passage to becoming a true and enduring democratic society. The big issue is that the June 12 narrative is a story of great heroes and heroines, having key names that include the winner of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, Chief MKO Abiola; his wife, Kudirat; General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and Pa Alfred Rewane, who are often cited.

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But maybe the greatest heroes of June 12 were the millions of unsung ordinary Nigerians who came out, contested military rule and literally chased them out of power, gaining a historic victory over martial authoritarianism. The ordinary Nigerian is not celebrating June 12 today. They are asking the question why, how and when Nigerian democracy died. The lived reality of the current generation is that the only agency they have seen in centres of political power are powered by greedy looters of the public treasury. The time has come to stop our praise-singing about our democracy and its heroes and fully reopen the struggle for democracy in Nigeria.

The Fourth Republic has been in place since 1999. Over this period, the country’s democratic process has been emptied of its essence. One way of understanding what happened to our democracy is to review how reckless political cabals have created a situation in which Nigeria faces a grave threat to its foundational constitutional principle of the separation of powers. Checks and balances between the branches of government have been imperilled. The separation of powers divides government responsibilities into three distinct branches — the legislative (makes laws), executive (enforces laws), and judicial (interprets laws). This constitutional framework ensures a system of “checks and balances” that prevents tyranny, preserves individual liberties, and promotes governmental accountability.

The core reasons why the separation of powers is essential for modern democracy include:

Preventing Tyranny: By dividing authority across independent branches so that no single person or group can aggregate enough power to form a dictatorship.

Enabling Checks and Balances: Each branch has the constitutional authority to monitor and limit the others. For instance, the legislature can pass laws, but the executive can veto them, while the judiciary can strike down unconstitutional laws.

Protecting Human Rights: An independent judiciary ensures that laws are applied fairly and citizens are shielded from arbitrary government actions or overreach.

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Conscious of these principles, ten of us as concerned Nigerian citizens issued a press release this week expressing our alarm at the increasing threats to the Nigerian nation, its democratic order and the rule of law. Our assessment of the state of the nation reveals that Nigeria stands at a dangerous crossroads where rising insecurity, an alarming level of electoral manipulation by government, and the weakening of democratic institutions are converging into a national crisis that threatens the country’s survival.

The legislative branch has been placed under near total control of the executive branch. The judiciary appears to have lost both its independence and its integrity. There are no checks on the powers of the executive, which now governs as it pleases, without accountability or respect for the people’s concerns. Institutions have been compromised, weakened, and subordinated to the interests of the executive arm of government. This erosion of institutional independence has fuelled public distrust to its highest level in our history, creating a crisis of political exclusion and impunity that is pushing violent extremism, organised crime, and communal conflict to a tipping point.

To reverse this trajectory, Nigeria must urgently recommit to democratic accountability, judicial independence, and institutional reforms that strengthen the rule of law. The electoral processes must be transparent, credible, and insulated from executive interference.

The crisis in Nigeria cannot be separated from the broader instability engulfing the Sahel region. The spread of terrorism, arms trafficking, unconstitutional changes of government, and porous borders across countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger continue to intensify insecurity in Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad Basin. The collapse of regional cooperation and democratic governance in parts of the Sahel further emboldens armed groups, weakens state authority, and undermines civilian protection across West Africa.

Government should, as a matter of urgency, recognise that insecurity in the Sahel fuels the Nigerian crisis and that rapprochement between AES (Alliance of Sahel States) and ECOWAS is an important element in the national interest.

Regional security cooperation between Nigeria and the Sahelian states should be revitalised by establishing strong bilateral and multilateral platforms for intelligence sharing, border governance, and community-based peace-building initiatives.

Equally important is investing in youth employment, education, social protection, and local conflict resolution mechanisms to address the root causes of radicalisation and insecurity.

Recommendations

1. Government should, as a matter of urgency, recognise that insecurity in the Sahel fuels the Nigerian crisis and that rapprochement between AES (Alliance of Sahel States) and ECOWAS is an important element in the national interest.
2. Government should immediately appoint a high-level Special Envoy for the Sahel to begin the urgent task of rebuilding trust between Nigeria, the AES and ECOWAS, while revamping regional mechanisms for peace and security.
3. Civil society organisations should actively sensitise citizens and strengthen public demand for accountability. Nigerians must be bold and courageous in protecting civic rights and resisting the current climate of restricting the civic space.
4. We call on the private sector as critical stakeholders in the nation-state agenda to continue to support and demand accountability in governance and the promotion of the rule of law as the basic premise of economic progress and nation building. Professional bodies and associations must rise to the challenge of building a broad national consensus to oppose tyranny and ensure the maintenance of checks and balances in governance, and the protection of the rule of law.
5. We call on our traditional leaders and members of the clergy to rise to the full weight of their moral and civic authorities to promote peaceful co-existence, solidarity, and inter-faith dialogue to arrest the current slide to criminality and civil disorder.
6. Given the clear and consistent indications of the lack of neutrality and competence of INEC, professional bodies such as the Nigerian Bar Association, unions, and other civic groups must set up mechanisms of engaging the electoral body to ensure that the 2027 elections are free, fair and credible.
7. The judiciary must address the perception of its complicity in stalling the democratic process. It must remain independent and uphold the rule of law. As a matter of urgency, the Nigerian Bar Association must call its members to order for professional conduct and strengthen its monitoring on the judiciary; it must stay alert and patriotic and ensure that political actors play by the rule. The National Judicial Council must set up a framework for holding judges accountable for decisions they take in the context of the electoral process.

Signatories

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim
Dr Husseini Abdu
Ambassador Fatima Balla (OON)
Dr Usman Bugaje
Professor Ibrahim Gambari (CON)
Dr Yahaya Hashim
Professor Attahiru Muhammadu Jega (OFR)
Mohammed Kuna
Abubakar Balarabe Mahmoud (SAN, OON)
Mallam Kabiru Yusuf.