The Renewed Hope Agenda has been a significant attempt to transition Nigeria from an “arbitrage economy” to a productive one. While the macroeconomic indicators and infrastructure projects represent significant high points, the ultimate success of the agenda depends on whether these structural foundations ultimately translate into improved household welfare and sustained per-capita growth over the coming years. This is the next stage of the task ahead.
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came into office in May 2023, his policy blueprint framed as the “Renewed Hope Agenda”— an audacious attempt to reset Nigeria’s economy, restore investor confidence, and tackle long-standing structural problems — kicked off boldly, signalling a determination to take very bold decisions. If anything, since inauguration, the Tinubu administration has been highly decisive in pivoting the country towards a more desirable future.
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The Renewed Hope Agenda as an overarching policy framework has unleashed a raft of reforms targeted at Nigeria’s long-standing challenges in economic stability, security, infrastructure, agriculture, education, health, and social inclusion, while fostering sustainable growth and shared prosperity.
At present, the Agenda has moved past the honeymoon phase into the more critical phase of a massive governance overhaul. For decades, Nigeria’s economy was like a house built on sand and propped up by unsustainable policies that distorted the fiscal base and benefited only a tiny elite, while the nation hemorraghed greatly.
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Now, the focus is hinged on fiscal discipline, market-oriented transformations, and infrastructure-led growth. The Agenda operates along eight defined priority areas including: reforming the economy for sustained inclusive growth; strengthening national security; boosting agriculture for food security; enhancing infrastructure and transportation; improving education, health, and social investment; expanding energy, oil and gas investments; reinforcing the digital economy; and enabling related sectors.
The courageous macroeconomic reforms that have been emplaced have seen to the removal of fuel subsidies and unification of exchange rates, thereby ending decades of unsustainable market distortions, while freeing up resources for purposeful development and improving greater levels of financial accountability and transparency in the country.
Restoring Fiscal Sanity and Revenue Growth
Before these reforms, fuel subsidies alone consumed over ₦4 trillion annually – a sum larger than the combined national budgets for health and education. Consequently, the savings accruing are now being redirected towards the building of infrastructure, education, and social programmes. Equally, more prudent debt management has became prioritised, with the debt servicing ratio, which stood at a dangerous 98 per cent in 2023 before President Tinubu’s assumption of office, was reduced to 68 per cent by mid-2024.
The liberalisation of the foreign exchange market narrowed the parallel market premium from nearly 100 per cent to less than 2 per cent by 2024, thereby signposting macroeconomic stabilisation and growth. While real GDP growth accelerated from 2.9 per cent in 2023 to 3.84 per cent in 2024 – the fastest in three years. And, the country’s foreign reserves rose from $32.9 billion at the end of 2023 to over $38.8 billion by mid-2024.
Closely tied to the foregoing has been the broader attempt at fiscal discipline. Budget restructuring efforts — such as plans to align Nigeria’s fiscal cycle and eliminate overlapping budgets — signal a seriousness about governance that previous administrations often lacked. And, at this juncture in 2026 (over two years in), both local and international sources are highlighting measurable progress, despite adjustment pains, and the trending down of inflation, now at 15.38 per cent, as at March.
Some of the most notable indicators of progress were not only in the fiscal but also the tax reforms. The government moved to streamline Nigeria’s chaotic tax system by reducing overlapping levies and digitising revenue collection. Early results suggest improved non-oil revenue performance, a critical shift for a country long dependent on crude oil income.
With the modernisation of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (now Nigeria Revenue Service) and NIN integration, over three million new taxpayers were registered by March 2025, improving the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10 per cent to over 13.5 per cent. And the bold economic reforms saw Nigeria raise, in December 2024, $2.2 billion through its first Eurobond placement in nearly three years, signaling the return of international market confidence.
Closely tied to the foregoing has been the broader attempt at fiscal discipline. Budget restructuring efforts — such as plans to align Nigeria’s fiscal cycle and eliminate overlapping budgets — signal a seriousness about governance that previous administrations often lacked. And, at this juncture in 2026 (over two years in), both local and international sources are highlighting measurable progress, despite adjustment pains, and the trending down of inflation, now at 15.38 per cent, as at March.
As a long-term vision, the Renewed Hope Agenda drives towards an integration with the 2026–2030 National Development Plan targets of ambitious goals like attaining a $1 trillion economy, with focus on private sector participation, and regional projects, with crucial anchors like the need for energy security, such as the CNG transition, etc. It equally centres people-oriented programmes, through initiatives like National Education Fund (NELFUND), housing programmes (Renewed Hope Cities/Estates), and minimum wage adjustments.
Key Economic Indices
As alluded to above, there have been several areas of progress, including economic stabilisation and growth, with annualised GDP growth around 4.2 per cent+, and the strengthening of the external reserves to $45.4 billion+, which is the strongest in recent history. There have been non-oil revenue records over ₦20 trillion reported in some periods, the clearing of the forex backlog that makes Nigerian banking instruments return to global acceptability, and rising FDI pledges of about $50 billion+, according to some reports. Equally, inflation has been easing, with disinflation in food and energy prices, alongside improved balance of trade and reduced petrol imports via local refining.
In terms of energy, power generation rose to as much as 6,000+ MW, and there have been improvements in oil production to between 1.6–1.7 mbpd and the launch of CNG initiatives. Also, major infrastructure projects are advancing, such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, rail expansions, port upgrades, and construction of other major roads.
Overall, while there is mixed public sentiment towards the Agenda, with many noting that it is “working,” though there is need for faster household-level impact, its long-term legacy will depend on sustained implementation (which makes a strong case for continuity in governance), the inclusive distribution of benefits, and a deeper dive into resolving persistent security/poverty challenges.
Also, as mentioned, on social investment and education, NELFUND disbursed significant funds estimated at over ₦206 billion to 1.1 million students, while there have been expanded safety nets, presidential loans/grants, the skills programme for youths, and women empowerment initiatives, etc.
While insecurity remains an ongoing concern, still the situation has been impacted with the reductions in banditry, insurgency, and related incidents through kinetic and non-kinetic approaches. Thousands of terrorists have been neutralised or have surrendered, with huge caches of weapons recovered. In places like the Niger Delta, the improved security environment is enabling projects like the resumption of oil exploration in certain areas, etc.
Consolidating an Architecture of Resilience
The Renewed Hope Agenda was never going to be an easy project. It attempts to fix deep-rooted structural problems such as subsidy dependence, weak institutions, low productivity, and fiscal leakages, were inevitably going to come with short-term pain.
However, to ensure this agenda ultimately succeeds, the government must:
- Humanise the Reform: Scale the Social Protection Response, and the current cash transfers are too small and slow to offset the “inflationary shock”. Hence, targeted cash transfers must be scaled to better cushion the impact of inflation on the most vulnerable.
- Prioritise Security: No economic pillar can stand if the “farming belt” remains insecure. Insecurity is not just a defence issue; it is a direct driver of food inflation.
- Transparency Dashboards:A public “Reform Progress Dashboard” should be designed, as this would build citizens’ trust by showing real-time project milestones.
- Hold the Line: As the 2027 election approaches, the temptation to return to populist, “crowd-pleasing” spending will be high. Reversing these reforms now would mean the pain of the last
The Renewed Hope Agenda has been a significant attempt to transition Nigeria from an “arbitrage economy” to a productive one. While the macroeconomic indicators and infrastructure projects represent significant high points, the ultimate success of the agenda depends on whether these structural foundations ultimately translate into improved household welfare and sustained per-capita growth over the coming years. This is the next stage of the task ahead.
Overall, while there is mixed public sentiment towards the Agenda, with many noting that it is “working,” though there is need for faster household-level impact, its long-term legacy will depend on sustained implementation (which makes a strong case for continuity in governance), the inclusive distribution of benefits, and a deeper dive into resolving persistent security/poverty challenges.
Mark Odigie is a technology, media entrepreneur and publisher of Zeal News Africa based in Lagos.
