The defection of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) last month has reshaped Nigeria’s political contest, particularly in the North-west geopolitical zone.
This region has been a stronghold of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), where it has won the presidential and most governorship elections since 2015.
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The rapid realignment involving Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso thwarted the opposition’s initial grand plan to present a united opposition against President Bola Tinubu for the January 2027 presidential election. In April, opposition leaders made the “Ibadan Declaration” at an event hosted by Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and attended by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso, as well as other key figures such as Rotimi Amaechi and Aminu Tambuwal. However, the plan unravelled within a month under the weight of competing ambitions, mutual suspicion, and complex legal battles within the ADC.
Seeking a platform free of legal disputes and unopposed presidential and vice presidential nominations, Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso fled to the NDC, where the party’s founder and former Bayelsa State Governor, Seriake Dickson, awarded them the party’s presidential ticket.
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Aftermath of defections
According to Kamilu Fagge, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Bayero University, Kano, Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso’s defection is a major setback for the ADC and the opposition generally, particularly in the North-west geopolitical zone.
Speaking with PREMIUM TIMES, Mr Fagge noted that when major political figures announced the opposition coalition, it raised the prospect of a formidable opposition party emerging. With a fracture in the opposition ranks, he warned that Nigeria may see a reenactment of the 2023 scenario, in which three major candidates split the opposition vote.
Mr Fagge explained that while Mr Obi is likely to retain massive support from the South-east and Christian communities in the North-central, Mr Kwankwaso’s influence is largely confined to Kano.
“Most of Kwankwaso’s votes are concentrated in Kano,” Mr Fagge observed. “He cannot even pull a strong showing in neighbouring states like Jigawa, Katsina, or Kaduna; he simply won’t be a crowd-puller there. In states like Jigawa, where Mr Kwankwaso lacks popularity, the ADC is poised to increase its vote share.”
Mr Kwankwaso’s traditional stronghold has always been Kano, driven primarily by the youth who turn out en masse to vote, as seen in the 2023 elections. However, Mr Fagge argued that this youth base is now fractured.
Governor Abba Yusuf, a former protege of Mr Kwankwaso, has aligned with former APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, and other powerful political forces. This new alliance is expected to take votes away from Mr Kwankwaso’s traditional base.
Mr Kwankwaso, under the NDC, might still put up a decent showing in Kano, but it will not match his 2023 performance under the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) because, unlike in the previous election, where various forces unified behind him, he now faces a multitude of new adversaries alongside his old political rivals.
Ultimately, in the North-west, the political landscape is shaping up to see votes split in three or four directions, making it exceedingly difficult for the opposition to achieve its goals. Mr Fagge believes that the ADC flagbearer, Atiku, stands a better chance of consolidating the northern vote and improving his numbers in the North-east, Northwest, and parts of the North-central.
North-west and the APC
Ibrahim Siraj, a political analyst from the Department of Mass Communication at Bayero University, Kano, noted that the seven North-west states have been a stronghold of the APC since the party’s formation. This dominance, he explained, is largely due to the enduring influence of the late former President Muhammadu Buhari, who hails from the zone.
Mr Siraj, a professor, pointed out that during the 2023 elections, both Mr Obi’s Labour Party (LP) and Mr Kwankwaso’s NNPP performed poorly in the North-west, despite the latter’s domineering influence in Kano politics. According to Mr Siraj, “This political dynamic is unlikely to change soon, as voters in the region still lack faith in either Obi or Kwankwaso, whether individually or collectively”.
In 2023, Mr Siraj noted that Mr Kwankwaso’s political clout did not extend beyond Kano State, while Mr Obi drew support only from the region’s Igbo community and northern Christian populations.
Despite the APC’s historical advantage in the zone, Mr Siraj said that support for President Tinubu is not guaranteed. He noted that the people of the North-west are currently bearing the brunt of the administration’s harsh economic policies. These policies, which the president frames as necessary reforms, have yet to translate into positive changes in the livelihoods of ordinary citizens.
While the realignment between Messrs Obi and Kwankwaso could theoretically shake up the race, Mr Siraj suggested it might ultimately favour President Tinubu. However, the true measure of the president’s genuine standing in the zone will depend on a free and fair electoral process, he stressed.
“Also, President Tinubu stands to benefit from the formidable political structure the APC maintains in the region, with the party controlling almost all the state governments and holding the majority of seats in the National Assembly (NASS).
“Add to that the fact that there is no united opposition, as APC has succeeded in weakening and dividing them, thereby preventing them from presenting a single strong challenger,” Mr Siraj stated. “Atiku Abubakar may likely do well in the region, but if the 2023 experience is anything to go by, the opposition can hardly succeed with a divided house.”
The shifting tides of Kano politics
Mr Siraj acknowledged that Mr Kwankwaso remains a force to be reckoned with in Kano politics and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. However, he noted that replicating the powerful electoral showing of 2023 will be an uphill task for the veteran politician.
A central challenge stems from a political rift at the top of the state’s leadership, which has compromised Mr Kwankwaso’s formidable political machinery.
“First of all, we’ve been made to believe that he (Mr Kwankwaso) has parted ways with Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, who decamped to the APC,” Mr Siraj explained.
“In moving to APC, the governor might have eaten into Kwankwaso’s structure because virtually all the people working with him, from commissioners to advisers to LG chairmen, are from Kwankwasiyya.”
He stated that this internal shift has severely weakened Mr Kwankwaso’s grassroots mobilisation capabilities ahead of future elections.
“Many of them played a key role in 2023. Those people will not be available to work for Mr Kwankwaso again,” he added.
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Beyond internal defections, Mr Siraj said Mr Kwankwaso now faces a formidable, unified opposition engineered by his former ally. Governor Yusuf has succeeded in rallying major political players across the state against his former mentor.
“Also, if you look around, you will see that there is an apparent gang-up spearheaded by Governor Yusuf, who has been able to forge a united front comprising all the bigwigs in the Kano political scene to challenge Mr Kwankwaso’s dominance,” Mr Siraj noted.
He added that geopolitical dynamics within Kano State seem to be shifting away from the Kwankwasiyya movement, limiting its influence to its traditional epicentre.
“Many people also believe that Mr Kwankwaso has lost control over Kano North and Kano South and that he’s left with only Kano Central, which used to be his traditional stronghold,” Mr Siraj added.
