A National Voter Intention Survey conducted by a Civil Society Organisation, Yiaga Africa, has revealed a high interest of Nigerians to vote in the 2027 election, with 77 per cent of respondents indicating interest.
Also, 76 per cent of respondents believe their votes can influence election outcomes.
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However, only 45 per cent express confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct a credible election.
These findings were drawn from the first round of the survey conducted between 1 and 5 December, the organisation said in a statement by its Executive Director, Samson Itodo.
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“The survey reveals a strong commitment on the part of voters to vote in the 2027 elections and significant concerns about security and INEC efficiency,” the statement said.
The survey found that 34 per cent of respondents lacked confidence in the Electoral Commission.
“Distrust in INEC is prevalent in southern Nigeria, particularly South-south and South-east, compared to high trust levels in the north,” the statement added.
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Survey, methodology
Yiaga Africa said it is conducting a series of surveys to test the prevalence of assumptions about voter interest and participation.
The surveys, it said, would also identify the key drivers and barriers to citizen engagement ahead of the 2027 elections.
“These periodic surveys are designed to generate timely, credible, and actionable evidence to inform electoral stakeholders and strengthen democratic participation,” the statement added.
For this survey, the organisation said it employed a stratified random sampling of 1,500 adult Nigerians above 18 years of age across all states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
It explained that the exercise was conducted in five major languages: English, Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba, and Pidgin English.
“The sample provides 95 per cent confidence with a ±4.26 per cent margin of error and was weighted to align with national census demographics,” it said.
More findings
The survey also found that 42 per cent of the survey respondents cited fear of violence as their primary barrier to participation.
The organisation explained that Northern Nigeria showed the highest voting likelihood despite facing security challenges.
“The challenge for 2027 is ensuring that the 77 per cent who want to vote can actually do so safely and with confidence in the process,” it said.
The statement added that 21 per cent of the respondents said the dominant factor influencing their voting intentions is the quality of candidates, while 17 per cent said it is economic conditions.
Meanwhile, 21 per cent said security concerns are a factor influencing their voting intention.
“This suggests voters are primarily concerned with safety, leadership competence, and economic well-being rather than partisan loyalty or identity politics,” Yiaga said, adding that the finding imposed an obligation on political parties to conduct the nomination process with transparency and integrity.
The organisation said recent electoral reforms are undermined by ‘significant communication failures’ as the survey also revealed that 76 per cent of Nigerians are unaware of the reforms.
“However, among those aware of electoral reforms, 64 per cent report increased voting confidence, which indicates that electoral reforms deliver results,” it stated.
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Recommendations
The CSO, therefore, recommended the deployment of comprehensive election security frameworks in high-risk zones to neutralise early warning threats ahead of party congress and primaries.
It also called for the establishment of community-based security approaches that leverage local leadership.
Yiaga Africa also asked the electoral commission to improve the integrity and accuracy of the voter register through timely revalidation and clean-up of the voter register.
“Conduct targeted confidence-building initiatives in the South-east and South-south zones. Popularise electoral reforms designed to enhance the integrity of the electoral process,” it said.
It also called on the National Assembly to conclude the passage of the electoral bill by 2026, to provide legal certainty for the 2027 elections.
Yiaga Africa also asked the political parties to ensure the emergence of high-quality candidates through the conduct of transparent, accountable, and credible party primaries, as well as issue-based campaigns that address voter priorities, including security, economy, and governance.
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