ANALYSIS: G20 can bridge opposing power blocks through climate action

The global climate action agenda is under attack, with United States’ President Donald Trump’s second term amplifying climate denialism and misinformation.

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Driven by national security concerns on the back of the Ukraine war, erstwhile global climate leaders – the European Union (EU) and its member countries – are significantly scaling back their climate ambition and action. This is compounded by a multilateral system under siege. But new possibilities for accelerating climate action through innovative partnerships can emerge.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been the primary instrument for climate change action since its first Conference of the Parties (COP) in 1995. Highlights include the Kyoto Protocol, the IPCC science platform and the Paris Agreement.

But consistent and powerful attacks on the United Nations and climate negotiations have held back progress. Other related negotiations have also been affected, such as the Plastics Treaty which last week again failed to reach agreement. This means that climate action has to rely on individual countries and mini-lateral blocks like the G7, BRICS and G20 – which are becoming increasingly prominent.

The G7 had its origins in the Group of Six, formed in 1975 in response to the OPEC Oil Embargo. Membership comprised the USA, United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan and Italy – countries with the largest GDPs, excluding the Soviet Union.

By 1998 Canada, the EU and Russia had joined, making up the G8. (Russia was again excluded in 2014 after the annexation of the Crimea.) The group’s genesis in a fossil fuel crisis and impending financial catastrophe is an important part of its DNA.

The G7’s climate journey has been a rollercoaster ride. While some of its members, notably the Europeans, have been at the forefront of the global climate dialogue, Canada and Japan have been more conservative. For example, Japan is ranked 58th on the Climate Change Performance Index.

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The US position seems to be determined by who is in the White House. In the last decade, Democrat presidents have been strongly pro-climate action while Republican presidents have resisted.

The net result has been a schizophrenic response from the G7 to climate action in spite of initiatives like the Climate Club. Given that G7 countries still constitute 30 per cent of global GDP, it remains core to any advancement on climate finance.

The G7’s rival is BRICS+. The bloc’s origins lie with Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov in the early 1990s, in the era of the IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa) and RIC (Russia, India and China) forums. Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs is largely credited with naming the group.

BRICS+ has 10 members – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia and the UAE – with a long list of countries interested in joining. Current members contribute some 35 per cent of the global GDP.

While BRICS+ includes significant fossil fuel heavyweights, some members have become leaders in climate action. China has rapidly become a low-carbon energy superpower with 59 per cent of its power now generated by renewables. It is also the global leader in solar, wind, hydrogen and battery technology production, and according to the World Economic Forum has become a major driver of a global green transition.

Brazil, which holds the Presidency of the 2025 Climate COP, also demonstrates climate leadership with 89 per cent of its energy coming from renewables. South Africa and Indonesia are in the leading club of coal and oil dominated countries that have signed up to a Just Energy Transition.

The G20, founded in 1999 in response to the 1997/8 Asian financial crisis, represents countries with significant global economic influence, which collectively make up around 85 per cent of the world’s GDP. It includes all G7 members plus the EU, as well as five BRICS+ members and the African Union. The G20 has the opportunity to bridge the geopolitical divide between these two incredibly important mini-laterals.

The November G20 summit will be the first on African soil. As the continent that contributes the least to global emissions yet experiences catastrophic climate related natural disasters, this year’s G20 could help like-minded G7 and BRICS+ members create a powerful climate club to accelerate action and African partnerships.

Four priorities outlined by the South African Presidency’s promising G20 2025 framework point in this direction.

First is taking action to strengthen disaster resilience and responsiveness. Many disasters globally are either directly climate change related, or accelerated by climate change. The UN Early warnings for All Initiative has set a deadline of 2027 for completely developing a Multi-hazard Early Warning System. Regions of Africa would be prime sites for pilots.

The second priority is ensuring debt stability for low-income countries. This is an important extension of the Bridgetown Initiative to make the international financial architecture a much fairer system. The idea – presented at COP27 by Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley – has climate finance at its heart.

Third, mobilising finance for Just Energy Transitions. This is a critical subset of climate financing that could achieve the UN’s Energy Sustainable Development Goal (SDG7) on universal energy access within Paris Agreement Climate goals.

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Fourth is harnessing critical minerals for inclusive growth and sustainable development. Critical minerals are essential to power the 4th Industrial Revolution and enable the energy revolution away from fossil fuels. This will rapidly become a major geopolitical risk if the major players fail to agree on the sustainable exploitation of critical minerals.

The 2025 African G20 holds promise. Bridging divisions to form a new climate club could accelerate our collective trajectory toward a more sustainable world, possibly within the boundaries of the Paris Agreement. And Africa is available as a prime candidate to demonstrate the success of such an initiative.

Dhesigen Naidoo, Research Associate, Climate Risk and Human Security Project, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).