How Tinubu can achieve N500 trillion economy by 2027 – Agbakoba

A senior lawyer and former president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) , Olisa Agbakoba, has shared his insights into how he believes Nigeria’s struggling economy can transform into a N500 trillion success story by 2027.

In a policy report, “Governance and Economic Analysis and Forecast 2025,” he released on Wednesday, Mr Agbakoba detailed strategies that the Nigerian government can adopt to transform the nation’s economy from a resource-dependent one to a production-oriented powerhouse.

He said that by restructuring the governance architecture and implementing strategic interventions across multiple sectors like oil, digital technology, transport, and mining, Nigeria can pay off its mounting debt and enhance revenue generation.

Mr Agbakoba commended President Bola Tinubu for spearheading crucial economic reforms, despite their unpopularity. These reforms include scrapping fuel subsidies, the unification of all segments of foreign exchange markets, overhauling the tax system, and establishing the Nigeria Consumer Credit Corporation (CREDICORP).

President Tinubu’s move to end oil subsidies in May 2023 sparked increased costs of goods and services, but financial experts saw it as a positive signal to investors.

Mr Agbakoba said while the economy is showing promising signs of recovery, it is still underperforming its vast potential.

According to the CBN governor, Yemi Cardozo, Nigeria’s foreign reserves jumped 12.74% to $39.12 billion in October 2024. Thanks to increasing foreign remittances and trade balance.

By the fourth quarter of 2024, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.84 per cent in real terms, reflecting an improvement from the 3.46 per cent recorded in the same period of 2023.

However, this positive development is overshadowed by inflationary pressures as Nigerians continue to struggle with the cost of living and price instability.

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Economic reforms

Part of the strategies Mr Agbakoba presented in his policy report is the leveraging of underutilised assets and creation of new revenue streams across multiple sectors.

He said the oil and gas industry alone could generate N85 trillion if Nigeria reasserted state ownership and managed its resources more actively. He also points to the N65 trillion that could come from fixing the tax system and closing loopholes used by multinational companies.

According to him, sharing contracts with International Oil Companies has failed to translate Nigeria’s petroleum wealth into broad economic prosperity, leaving 133 million Nigerians in multidimensional poverty despite constitutional mandates that natural resources be used for citizens’ welfare.

He stated that another N50 trillion could come from putting abandoned government assets to better use, including hundreds of properties and projects lying idle across the country.

“This includes approximately 50,000 abandoned federal projects across the country valued at over N10 trillion and Federal Government landed property estimated at N5 trillion. The Federal Secretariat in Ikoyi Lagos alone is worth at least N120 billion and has been abandoned for over 40 years.

“MOFI needs comprehensive reform to transform it from a passive asset holder to an active asset manager. This requires establishing a professional asset management structure with private sector expertise, developing a comprehensive asset register to document all government-owned assets, and implementing aggressive asset monetization strategies including sales, concessions, and public-private partnerships,” he said.

Mr Agbakoba, a maritime law expert, outlined how Nigeria’s maritime sector could bring in N35 trillion if ports are modernized and illegal activities at sea are stopped. He suggests building inland ports, updating laws, and investing in the blue economy as a way to create millions of jobs.

Political Restructuring

At the heart of the plan is a call for Nigeria to change its entire approach to governance. According to Mr Agbakoba, Nigeria’s problems come from “extractive institutions” which according to him are systems that keep power and money in the hands of a few. He believes Nigeria must replace these with “inclusive institutions” that give ordinary people a real stake in the country’s future.

His suggestions include writing a new constitution that reflects the will of the people, giving more power to states and local governments, reforming the justice system, cutting waste in government agencies, and creating a more transparent and efficient civil service.

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“Nigeria must restructure its governance architecture through meaningful devolution of powers to states and local governments, constitutional reform that reflects true federalism, judicial independence, and legal system modernization, and comprehensive anti-corruption measures and public service reform,” he said.

For Mr Agbakoba, numbers alone don’t tell the whole story. He says the real success of any reform should be judged by its impact on everyday Nigerians.

“The real question is: does the market trader in Onitsha have more money in her pocket? Is food more affordable for the factory worker in Kano? Can the farmer in Benue access better healthcare and education for his children? Does the office worker in Lagos see a clear path to a better future?”

He urged President Tinubu to take decisive action. He said delaying reforms will cost the country billions in lost revenue and numerous businesses that will never start.