The 2025 COP30 in Brazil was a milestone moment in the global climate agenda, but for unexpected reasons.
The United States (US) did not participate in the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and this month announced its withdrawal from the convention (and 30 other UN entities).
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This removes the country with the highest historical levels of greenhouse gases from the jurisdiction of the UNFCCC, whose members commit to a transition away from fossil fuels. The world’s largest economy will also not be a global partner in climate action.
Without US participation, COP30 saw a recalibration of the major power blocs and countries that hold more promise for the developing world, particularly Africa. This, together with the 2025 G20 Summit’s promising climate outcomes, sets Africa’s climate agenda and provides avenues to advance its priorities.
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At the ‘COP of Truth’, the global south collectively highlighted the elephant in the room: the world is far from limiting warming to 1.5°C. Climate governance may be entering a more honest phase – one that recognises differentiated capacities and prioritises implementation over rhetoric.
Unfortunately, global leaders did not rise to President Lula da Silva’s challenge to prove their commitment to the planet. Progress towards an international emissions deal, increased planet protection, and higher climate action contributions was limited.
Important COP30 features included a shift in power dynamics, with the G77+China showing early leadership, earning the Climate Action Network’s first ‘Ray of the Day’. It was an important win for the developing world. Agreement on the Just Transition Mechanism is critical to accelerate a low-carbon transition without sacrificing development.
Africa identified key gaps, including limited climate action ambition, slow implementation, and insufficient support for the finance, technology, and capacity-building needed to help developing countries fight climate change. This was critical in guiding the eventual COP30 decisions.
Key outcomes were the Belém Action Mechanism and agreement on 59 indicators to monitor progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation. There was some movement on the climate finance target – now at $1.3 trillion yearly by 2035, with adaptation finance tripled.
Brazil also raised the bar on nature and biodiversity action, with a joint statement from the presidencies of the conventions on climate (UNFCCC), biological diversity and desertification. Another win in the wake of a rapidly increasing anti-science and climate-denial force was the pledge to tackle disinformation.
Africa starts 2026 with climate ambition firmly on paper, but uncertain implementation. This comes as the World Meteorological Organisation’s COP30 climate update shows that cascading climate extremes are hammering economies, undermining livelihoods and disrupting development globally.
For Africa, climate adaptation and resilience are key to economic stability and human security. Implementation needs climate finance, but the scale, predictability and accessibility of such finance are unreachable for most African countries. The funding for loss and damage is undercapitalised, and private capital mobilisation is risk-averse and lacking.
Africa’s climate resilience needs multi-year financing flows, delivery at scale for adaptation and resilient infrastructure. The key question in 2026 is whether African countries can convert accumulated ambition into credible pathways and lay the groundwork before constraints become insurmountable.
COP30 ensured an institutional consolidation of loss and damage but fell short of a financial breakthrough. Countries completed the third review of the Warsaw International Mechanism and enhanced coordination with the Santiago Network and Fund for responding to Loss and Damage. But finance remains inadequate.
Africa must shape how loss and damage are measured, framed and linked to development, debt and human security. The fund will start its first operations worth $250 million, allowing initial disbursements and testing access modalities. This is a chance for developing countries to submit funding requests, and a test of whether the fund can facilitate equity and accessibility at scale.
COP30 hoped to translate commitments into tangible progress, and although some steps were taken, the conference did not bridge the gap between ambition and action. This has led to a sense of urgency and recognition that this is the year where groundwork must translate into practice.
The conference also occurred in a difficult geopolitical environment. The US exit from the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC could lead to a realignment of priorities, with other major economies like the European Union and China, and even African regional players, taking on key roles in driving climate action.
African nations should advocate for more autonomy in climate action and strengthen ties with other global partners.
The 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit advanced several climate developments, reaffirming Paris Agreement commitments prioritising adaptation amid global tensions. Leaders endorsed tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency by 2030 and accelerating just energy transitions. The importance of the Compact with Africa at the G20 was reinforced at COP30, noting the reforms undertaken by partners to enhance the investment climate.
Africa can use the G20 to push for sustainable development, build alliances, attract investment and foster technology transfer. This will be difficult under America’s 2026 G20 presidency, but could see a revival under UK leadership in 2027.
At COP31 in Türkiye, Africa should advance key priorities ahead of the 2027 African COP under Ethiopia, ensuring Africa shapes the global climate agenda during geopolitical uncertainty.
With climate leadership in flux and new coalitions forming, African nations could use this moment of recalibration. It will be vital to translate the institutional gains of COP30, including the Just Transition Mechanism, enhanced loss and damage coordination, and adaptation arrangements, into operational readiness and demonstrable progress.
Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, Research Officer and Dhesigen Naidoo, Senior Research Associate, Climate Risk and Human Security Project, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria
(This article was first published by ISS Today, a Premium Times syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).
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