How will Africa adapt to a disappearing ‘West’?

The widening divergence between Europe and the United States (US) under President Donald Trump appears to be rendering the notion of the collective ‘West’ obsolete.

That could have important implications for Africa. Although the continent has been diversifying its global partnerships, it might now face difficult choices.

Mr Trump’s decision to negotiate directly (and only) with Russia for a Ukraine peace deal, and the insults directed at Europeans by US Vice-President JD Vance at this week’s Munich Security Conference, have created tensions.

Together, they seriously question the continued relevance of the transatlantic partnership.

Mr Vance urged European leaders to drop the ‘firewalls’ they have erected to keep far-right parties out of government.

These are parties, especially Germany’s Alternative for Germany, with which the Trump administration shares many values.

These include hostility to immigration, aggressive nationalism and enthusiasm for unfettered freedom of expression, even when this crosses over into hate speech.

‘The threat that I worry most about, vis-a-vis Europe, is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor,’ Mr Vance said.

‘What I worry about is the threat from within: the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values – values shared with the United States of America.’

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Mr Vance’s jab that the real threat to Western values came from European governments themselves denying freedom, and not Russia, infuriated those governments who rejected the insinuation that they were authoritarian.

Mr Trump has since underscored the point by launching negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, which exclude both Ukraine and Europe. And by saying Ukraine was responsible for starting the war and branding its President Volodymyr Zelensky a ‘dictator.’

Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also shocked Europe by warning them not to assume the US would defend them ‘forever.’

The divide opening up across the Atlantic has implications for Africa, according to experts from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) who attended the Munich Security Conference.

ISS Senior Researcher Priyal Singh saw ‘a breakdown in the transatlantic partnership,’ believing the traditional assumption that there was a unified collective ‘West’ ‘doesn’t hold true anymore.’

This meant Africa would have divergent relations with the US and Europe in future. Mr Singh said Africa’s relations with Europe would probably stay on the same path – of good governance, human rights and so on – but its relationship with the US would likely go down a very different path.

There would be an about-turn in language because of Mr Trump’s antagonism to diversity, equity and inclusion.

He thought it significant that after the Trump administration’s flurry of attacks on South Africa, the Europeans had expressed strong solidarity with South Africa.

Mr Singh added that after Mr Vance told Europe it would henceforth have to take care of its own security, this raised questions about the US approach to security in Africa.

Already there are question marks over US funding for peacekeeping. Some US funds for the United Nations (UN) operation in Haiti have been frozen.

And although the US had reservations about the mechanics of UN funding for African peace missions under former president Joe Biden, US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch’s remarks on 11 February suggest a general hardening of the US’ position.

Mr Risch said that ‘UN Security Council Resolution 2719 should not be used to fund AUSSOM. Doing so would lock the US into perpetual funding through its dues to the UN which is a disservice to the American taxpayer.’

It’s unclear whether Europe could fill the security gap left in Africa by the US, as it would have to increase defence spending on Ukraine to compensate for an expected drop in US military support, Mr Singh said.

Though perhaps others, like Türkiye, United Arab Emirates and China, could step in – even if each also comes with its own agenda.

Jakkie Cilliers, head of ISS’ International Futures programme, said the past week’s events were ‘hopefully … a wake-up call for Europe’ to ‘get serious about taking responsibility for your own security.’

Mr Cilliers said the US and Europe’s diverging paths would impact Africa mainly through Mr Trump’s decision to slash foreign aid and the inability of Europe to bridge that gap.

That would lead to quite a dramatic increase in poverty, which he forecast would result from an expected 20 per cent to 30 per cent cut in US aid for fighting HIV/AIDS and, more generally, for development.

As a result, the US’ image as a reliable partner would give way to a sense that it is ‘fickle and unpredictable,’ and so the US would lose considerable soft power.

On US security cooperation with Africa, however, Mr Cilliers noted that Mr Hegseth, last week, visited US Africa Command (AFRICOM) headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany and reportedly said AFRICOM’s role remained vital to US interests.

Mr Cilliers said this was because Africa was on the front lines of an attack by Islamists against Christian populations.

Mr Hegseth cited the 1 February airstrikes against militants in Somalia that AFRICOM coordinated with the Federal Government of Somalia.

He also said Africa remained a priority because of China’s ‘pernicious’ intentions on the continent.

Yet China may ironically increase its role on the world stage, including Africa, precisely because of Trump’s wider retreat.

Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, ISS Head of Special Projects, noted that after Vance left the Munich conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took the stage and emphasised many of the things Mr Vance hadn’t mentioned.

These included multilateralism, collaborating for development and building stronger partnerships.

‘It was a message that resonated with many people, which was ironic because traditionally China has been the outsider in these discussions. Yet in this case … his was the one that got the standing ovation that JD Vance’s didn’t get.’

She thought the juxtaposition of Mr Vance’s hostile speech and Yi ‘basically reaffirming a global order based on mutually agreed rules’ sent the message – also to Africa – that ‘if the US doesn’t want to be a world leader … we’re happy to do that by pushing a development agenda.’

Maunganidze said China’s approach of security via development would have especially appealed to Africa.

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In a month, Mr Trump has turned the world as we have known it on its head with uncertain implications for everyone, including Africa.

In uncertain times, it seems wise for the continent to cleave closer to more reliable friends, like Europe, and hold fast to multilateralism.

But if Mr Trump has sounded a wake-up call to Europe, he has also sounded a warning to Africa – for both to achieve the self-reliance they have long aspired to.

Peter Fabricius, Consultant, Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Pretoria.

(This article was first published by ISS Today, a PREMIUM TIMES syndication partner. We have their permission to republish).