ANALYSIS: Inuwa returns to APC, Daura joins APM as Katsina ADC coalition unravels

Earlier this year, Mustapha Inuwa and Lawal Daura were among the political heavyweights attempting to build a formidable opposition platform to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Katsina State.

By Sunday, that emerging alliance had splintered.

Mr Inuwa, a former secretary to the Katsina State Government and the first APC chairman in Katsina, announced that he and his supporters were returning to the ruling party.

Mr Daura, a former Director-General of the State Security Service (SSS), chose a different destination, moving to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

The two politicians left the African Democratic Congress (ADC) with essentially the same complaint: allegations that the party failed to guarantee a credible, fair and internally democratic candidate-selection process.

But they have arrived at sharply different conclusions about where Katsina’s political alternative now lies.

Mr Inuwa argued that despite insecurity, economic hardship and internal disagreements within the APC, returning to the ruling party offers the most practical political route for his supporters.

Mr Daura took almost the opposite position. He portrayed the APC itself as politically impaired and said the APM provides a healthier platform for pursuing his political objectives.

Both men cited essentially the same grievance over alleged failures of internal democracy in the ADC. Yet Mr Inuwa has returned to the ruling party he once helped build, while Mr Daura has moved to a smaller opposition platform after dismissing both the ADC and APC as defective political vehicles.

An opposition coalition fractures

At the beginning of the year, the political movement that eventually coalesced around the ADC brought together several prominent politicians opposed to Governor Dikko Radda’s administration and the APC.

Among them were Mr Inuwa, Mr Daura, former senators and other political actors with structures across Katsina’s 34 local government areas.

PREMIUM TIMES reported in January that the gathering of political heavyweights was emerging as a potentially significant opposition force ahead of the 2027 elections.

Mr Inuwa had travelled a particularly long political route to get there. He was the first APC chairman in Katsina and later spent seven years as secretary to the state government under former Governor Aminu Masari.

His relationship with the party deteriorated after he lost the 2022 APC governorship primary to Mr Radda. He later moved into the opposition, first through the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), before participating in efforts to build another political platform in Katsina.

Speaking to supporters at his office in Katsina on Sunday, Mr Inuwa recalled how his political group initially considered the Social Democratic Party before moving to the ADC.

He said members opened offices, mobilised supporters and financed political activities themselves in the expectation that the ADC would provide a fairer political process.

That expectation, he said, ultimately collapsed.

The dispute centred largely on rival claims over party structures and candidate selection, and on allegations that acceptable primaries or consensus arrangements were not conducted.

PREMIUM TIMES had earlier documented two layers of crisis within the Katsina ADC: rival structures competing for legitimacy and a separate dispute within the Muhammad Rimi-led camp over how candidates emerged.

That camp included Messrs Inuwa and Daura, as well as former Senator Ahmad Kaita.

Same grievance, different exits
In his Sunday speech, Mr Inuwa repeatedly returned to what he described as injustice in the selection of candidates.

He said members joined and helped to build the ADC because they expected the party to conduct its affairs differently from the political establishments they had criticised.

According to him, that expectation was betrayed.

Mr Inuwa alleged that there was neither a proper primary election nor a valid consensus process for several elective positions.

He claimed that 154 people had sought State House of Assembly tickets across different constituencies, but that the eventual choices were made without giving many of them a fair opportunity to participate.

He also cited a senatorial contest in which, according to him, five aspirants were bypassed, and another person who had not participated in the original contest was selected.

These remain Mr Inuwa’s allegations against his former party.

He said he and his supporters had demanded corrective action since 27 May but received no satisfactory resolution.

Mr Inuwa also alleged that a senior figure in the political movement had promised him on five occasions that they would meet to discuss the dispute, but none of the proposed meetings took place. He did not name the official.

Mr Daura’s diagnosis of the crisis is substantially similar.

In an interview with DCL Hausa, monitored by PREMIUM TIMES, the former intelligence chief described the ADC using a metaphor.

“We found a vehicle that appeared good, but we didn’t know its engine was faulty,” he said.

Mr Daura blamed what he described as a lack of justice and weak leadership.

“Wherever you go, if justice is promised to you but leadership turns out to be weak, that place is not suitable to stay in,” he said.

His criticisms were not new.

PREMIUM TIMES reported in June that Mr Daura had rejected the candidate-selection process and demanded either a legitimate consensus arrangement or properly conducted primaries.

At the time, he said political realignment was among the options available if attempts to resolve the dispute failed.

That realignment has now happened.

Inuwa bets on repairing APC

Where Messrs Inuwa and Daura sharply diverge is in their proposed solution.

Mr Inuwa did not return to the APC by claiming that the ruling party had solved Katsina’s problems.

His speech instead acknowledged economic hardship, insecurity, public dissatisfaction and divisions among political officeholders.

Yet he concluded that, among the options available to his political group, the APC remained the most viable.

“We know there are challenges in this country,” he said. “There are hardships, security issues and other problems.”

But he said there was still time for the government to take advice and begin addressing those problems.

His return carries considerable political symbolism.

Mr Inuwa once chaired the APC in Katsina, served for seven years as SSG and later contested the party’s 2022 governorship primary against Mr Radda.

Mr Radda defeated him by 506 votes to 442, a margin of 64 delegates.

Mr Inuwa initially said he would remain in the APC after the primary, but the relationship later deteriorated. He left the party, backed the opposition, and joined the effort to form a new coalition.

He has now returned to the political camp led by the man who defeated him.

Mr Inuwa also outlined how he wants his political structure integrated into the ruling party.

He said each local government should compile lists of relevant stakeholders from his group, while APC leaders should work with the newcomers to ensure representation and cooperation.

He called on existing party members and those returning with him to respect one another and avoid struggles over political positions.

Mr Inuwa also said his initial discussions with Governor Radda included an assurance that the governor would listen to advice.

Using a military analogy, he argued that divisions among political officeholders could weaken the ruling party, saying even a capable commander could not win a war with a divided force.

In the breaking report on his defection, PREMIUM TIMES reported that Mr Inuwa did not disclose whether any specific political concessions, appointments or party positions had been agreed with Mr Radda.

He also attached a political test to his return.

Mr Inuwa called on Governor Radda and APC leaders to use the next “two or three months” to address complaints about insecurity and economic hardship.

He argued that visible improvements would make it easier for those returning to the APC to persuade voters to support the party.

The remarks are significant because they acknowledge that joining the ruling party does not erase the grievances that previously fuelled opposition to it.

Daura chooses a different vehicle

Mr Daura has rejected the route chosen by Mr Inuwa.

During the DCL Hausa interview, he was asked whether the APC could be regarded as politically healthy.

He responded with another metaphor, describing the party as “limping” and saying its arm was effectively in a sling while its hearing was impaired.

He instead described the APM as the healthiest political platform available to him.

Mr Inuwa, while discussing options considered by his group, dismissively referred to another platform as the “cassava party”, apparently referring to the APM, which Mr Daura has now joined.

The contrast illustrates how the dispute has moved beyond disagreements over the ADC’s candidate-selection process to a wider argument over which platform can realistically challenge for power in 2027.

Mr Daura’s exact role in the APM remains unclear.

Asked by DCL Hausa whether he had joined because he had been offered a particular ticket, he denied having received or requested one.

Asked what role he would play, he urged the interviewer to wait until the end of the week for further developments.

The former intelligence chief had previously declared his intention to run for governor. His latest remarks leave open whether he willontinue pursuing that ambition under the APM or take another role within the party

What remains of the ADC?

Mr Inuwa claimed in his speech that the departures had effectively left the ADC with little more than its name in Katsina.

“The ADC is not merely unconscious, but dead,” he declared.

That remains his political assessment rather than an established fact.

The ADC still has politicians and competing structures in the state, making it too early to determine the full effect of the departures.

Mr Kaita’s position will be particularly significant because Messrs Inuwa and Daura challenged the process through which he emerged from the Rimi-led camp.

Whether their departures consolidate his control of what remains of that bloc or deprive it of significant political structures is not yet clear.

The rival structure led by Musa Wamba, which produced Salisu Uli as its governorship candidate, also remains relevant.

In an earlier interview with PREMIUM TIMES, Mr Uli defended the process conducted by his camp, saying it operated through what he described as the recognised party structure and that INEC officials monitored its primaries.

He also said reconciliation efforts between the rival camps had failed despite negotiations over power-sharing arrangements.

The latest departures now raise questions over how much of the ward and local government structures built by the Rimi-led bloc will follow Mr Inuwa into the APC, how much will move with Mr Daura to the APM and how much will remain with the ADC.

The national leadership’s response will also be important.

In June, ADC National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi acknowledged to PREMIUM TIMES that the party’s primary process had not been perfect but defended its overall credibility.

What the split means for 2027

Mr Inuwa’s return potentially strengthens Mr Radda’s coalition by bringing back a politician who demonstrated substantial support within the APC four years ago.

The 2022 governorship primary, in which Mr Radda defeated him by only 64 delegate votes, provided one measure of Mr Inuwa’s influence within the party at the time.

How much of that structure remains intact four years later, and how much of it he can bring into Mr Radda’s camp, will become clearer as the realignment proceeds across the local governments.

That does not automatically translate into an APC victory in 2027.

The political consequences will depend partly on how many supporters move with Mr Inuwa, how the APC manages the interests of old and returning members and whether the Radda administration can address some of the security and economic grievances Mr Inuwa himself acknowledged.

Mr Daura’s move to the APM, meanwhile, shows that politicians leaving the ADC are not necessarily gravitating towards the ruling party.

Instead, Katsina’s opposition could be breaking into several competing centres.

The ADC, APM, PDP and any other platforms emerging from further realignments could leave opposition support divided among different parties.

Such fragmentation could benefit the APC if opposition votes are ultimately split.

However, much will depend on the candidates eventually presented, the ability of competing parties to build viable structures across Katsina’s 34 local government areas, further political realignments and voters’ assessment of the Radda administration before the election.

For now, the opposition formation that brought Messrs Inuwa and Daura together earlier this year has failed to hold.

They left the ADC on the same day but are now travelling in opposite political directions.

For Katsina’s 2027 contest, the collapse of their common political vehicle may prove as consequential as the destinations they have now chosen.