ANALYSIS: Labour Party without Peter Obi: What next?

When Peter Obi officially defected from the Labour Party (LP) to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on 31 December 2025, it was not surprising.

The writing was on the wall because of an intense leadership crisis in the LP.

The sign that Mr Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, would quit the LP came in July 2025, when he joined the national opposition coalition, which adopted ADC as its platform for the 2027 general elections.

The intense leadership crisis in the LP appeared to have prompted him to consider switching to the ADC.

While he remained part of the coalition without officially resigning from the LP, there were suggestions in some quarters that his action amounted to anti-party activity.

But the former governor argued otherwise at the time.

Peter Obi’s effect

Before Mr Obi joined the LP in 2022, the party was relatively unknown and had no members in the National Assembly. It should be noted, however, that Olusegun Mimiko once used the platform to govern Ondo State between 2009 and 2017. During the time, the LP also produced members of the National Assembly in the two chambers, as well as state lawmakers in the Ondo State House of Assembly.

The party also had no elected governor at the time Mr Obi joined. But the former governor’s entry dramatically changed the party’s electoral fortunes in 2023.

Although Mr Obi did not win the presidential election, his involvement in the race helped the party to pull surprise victories in the South-east and across the country.

In Abia State, the LP won the 2023 governorship election. The party also won some seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives during the general elections.

Labour Party: Brick of collapse amid leadership crisis?

Before Mr Obi left the LP, the party was torn apart by an intense leadership crisis.

The crisis later split the party into two factions.

While its disputed National Chairperson, Julius Abure, led one faction, Mr Obi and Governor Alex Otti of Abia State belonged to the other.

The LP’s factional National Executive Committee had sacked the Abure-led executive in September 2024 and appointed Nenadi Usman, a former minister of finance and ex-senator of Kaduna South, to lead a 29-member caretaker committee and facilitate the election of a new party leadership within 90 days.

But weeks later, the Court of Appeal in Abuja recognised Mr Abure as the LP’s national chairperson.

However, the Supreme Court on 4 April 2025, set aside the judgement and held that the Court of Appeal lacked jurisdiction to have affirmed Mr Abure as chairperson of the LP since the substance of the case was about the party’s leadership.

The court further ruled that Mrs Usman’s appeal was meritorious, as it also dismissed the cross-appeal filed by the Abure-led faction for lacking merit.

But the Abure-led faction argued that the Supreme Court did not sack Mr Abure or other party executives.

The two factions stood their ground until Friday, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognised Mrs Usman as the national chairperson.

INEC’s official records had recognised Mr Abure as the national chairperson of the LP until that change of position.

On 21 January, a Federal High Court in Abuja had delivered another judgement affirming Mrs Usman as the national chairperson of the LP.

The court held that the tenure of Mr Abure-led executive had elapsed and then ordered INEC to recognise Mrs Usman as the authentic national chairperson of the party.

However, the judgement came after several senators and House of Representatives members elected under the LP platform in the 2023 general election switched to other political parties due to the party’s leadership crisis.

Unlike Mr Obi, Mr Otti neither joined the coalition nor the ADC. The Abia governor has insisted that he would remain in the party and join hands to address its challenges.

From Labour Party to ADC

Mr Obi did not leave the LP alone. He moved to the ADC alongside his supporters and politicians, including serving senators and House of Representatives members, from other political parties.

Members of the Obidient Movement, a group of supporters of Mr Obi, also switched to the ADC.

Many Nigerians, including opposition politicians, believe that Mr Obi would get “significant support” regardless of the political party under which he contests in 2027

A former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose, for instance, said in an interview on Arise News in January that Mr Obi is the only political figure who can win an election irrespective of his political party.

“When Obi went to the Labour Party, the Labour Party that was never known, but people won elections to the House of Representatives (under LP due to his influence).

“Obi is the only traction. Obi is the only meaning, Obi is the only factor, Obi is the only person in ADC that matters,” Mr Fayose, a member of the PDP, had said.

Like Mr Fayose, a former national spokesperson of the LP, Kenneth Okonkwo said in an interview with Arise News recently that Mr Obi can win any election because “people are loyal to his person,” not his political party.

“Anybody who is bringing Peter Obi to the table in the forthcoming 2027 election or in any election is bringing absolute victory,” Mr Okonkwo said.

“When you come to an election, you talk about the candidates, not the political parties,” he added.

What happens to the Labour Party without Peter Obi?

Analysts say Mr Obi’s exit from LP will result in the party’s eventual collapse.

Samuel Ololo, a political analyst, told PREMIUM TIMES that the LP is unlikely to survive Mr Obi’s departure because the party built its strength around the former governor before and after the 2023 elections.

“With Obi leaving the Labour Party, every analyst who wants to tell themselves the truth will know that the previous momentum that the Labour Party had is gone now,” Mr Ololo, who is based in Anambra State, said.

He argued that the LP had suddenly disappeared from political conversations in Nigeria since Mr Obi’s defection and that even the few times the LP surfaces in such discourse, the former governor was often linked to it.

“So, obviously, without being insensitive or demeaning the party as an entity, the Labour Party is just going to die a natural death,” the analyst said.

He argued that no matter the effort the LP might make to revive the party, it would be impossible for the party to regain the momentum it had during Mr Obi’s era.

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Jonah Onuoha, another political analyst, corroborated Mr Ololo’s position.

“The Labour Party was in a coma before Obi joined it. And now Obi has left it, it will go back to coma,” Mr Onuoha, a professor of political science at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, quipped.

The university lecturer argued that there is no credible politician in the LP with the former governor’s wide acceptance and national influence.

Mr Onuoha was reminded that Governor Otti of Abia remains a member of the party.

“For Alex Otti, as of now, we don’t know if he will remain in the Labour Party because he was supposed to follow Peter Obi to the ADC.

“But even if he remains in the Labour Party, he will not be able to do much. He is only relevant within Abia State. Outside Abia State, Governor Otti will not command much influence,” he responded.

“So, the Labour Party will certainly relapse into a coma,” the lecturer maintained.

For Anthony Egobueze, an associate professor of politics and governance at the Rivers State University, Port Harcourt, Mr Obi’s departure would certainly “become a very big setback” to the LP.

“Peter Obi was the enigma that led people to the Labour Party. His departure to a large extent will lead to a drift from the LP to the ADC,” Mr Egobueze said.

The associate professor stressed that since Mr Obi defected to the ADC, the party’s membership drive has increased due to the former governor’s influence.

He contended that there is no strong individual in the LP which the party can field as a presidential candidate in the forthcoming 2027 election.

“So, what has happened now is already leading to the collapse of the national outlook of the Labour Party,” Mr Egobueze remarked.